1. We’ve been told all of our lives, from Little League on up, that you put the ball in play and good things will happen.

This is a fine theory and fine in practice, until players start to face pitchers that can put a baseball pretty much anywhere they want when they want to with multiple types of pitches and until defensive players become amazing at turning batted balls into outs. The higher up you go in level, the more mere contact isn’t going to get it done. And if you look at major league leaderboards, you’ll notice that often the best contact hitters are rather mediocre hitters and the best overall hitters in terms of getting on base and slugging aren’t necessarily great contact hitters.

Mere contact will get you some offense in little league and even at the high school and college levels. But when pitchers have the command to induce weak contact and when they are backed up by unreal defense and state-of-the-art information on defensive positioning, mere contact isn’t going to get it done.

2. There is the idea the strikeouts mean swinging for the fences which means a one-dimensional offense and less consistency.

But offense is about getting on base/avoiding outs and slugging. It’s very possible for a team to be good at getting on base and slugging and be bad at not striking out. In fact, most of the best teams in history at getting on base and slugging (and scoring runs) were also among the worst teams at not striking out. One reason for this is because high on base teams take pitches and wait on pitches they can crush. This means deeper counts and more walks but also more strikeouts. Another reason is that teams that slug well are trying to hit the ball hard.

Swinging with a focus on making contact usually means not hitting the ball hard. Ideally you want contact hitters who also draw walks and hit the ball hard so they on-base and slug well. But hitters who are talented enough to do all those things, especially against today’s amazing pitchers, are few and far between. Only the elite offensive players are capable of all of that. We usually have to settle for players who strike out a good bit but can get on base and slug. That’s been the case throughout baseball history, whether teams typically strikeout 4 times a game or 7 times a game.

3. There’s the idea that a lot of strikeouts mean a low on-base percentage and making outs often.

As I touched on, teams that post high on-base percentages tend to take pitches to get deep into counts and either wait for pitches they can hit with authority or they take walks. But taking pitches also means taking more pitchers’ pitches that are strikes that a team can’t do anything with even if they swing and make contact. So a talented offensive club that takes pitches will get their walks, will get pitches to crush and crush them but they also tend to strike out a lot. Of course strikeouts are outs but a lot of a particular type of out doesn’t necessarily mean making outs often.

Every now and then when an opposing team is playing Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s, especially around the time Moneyball came out, you would hear the opposing team’s announcers talked about the Athletics’ high on-base percentage, and the A’s working counts, taking walks and putting balls in play. But in the Moneyball Athletics’ offensive heyday, they weren’t really an outstanding contact team. Strikeouts for hitters aren’t any sort of an indication that those hitters aren’t good at avoiding outs in general.
4. The myth is that high-strikeout offenses can’t win in the postseason.

It’s always dangerous to try to single out factors that influence postseason success. There are so many variables that lead a team to winning postseason series and often teams that win short series win in spite of inferior baseball skills to their opponents. But of course it’s not unheard of for teams with high-strikeout offenses to win in the postseason. These teams are usually, of course, good offensive teams and good run-prevention teams that happen to make a lot of outs via the strikeout. But there’s really not much of a particular pattern of any kind that can give us an indication why certain teams win and certain team lose in the postseason, especially in this day and age of four or five playoff teams and 5-game series or one-game playoffs.

There is nothing to indicate high-strikeout teams struggle more than low-strikeout teams against great pitching. The 2004 Red Sox led their league in strikeouts and won the Series. The 2012 Washington Nationals finished 3rd in the National League in strikeouts. They were 24-14 against playoff teams in the regular season. They were 26-17 against playoff teams in both the regular and postseason combined. The lost their opening-round series to the Cardinals by a 3-games-to-2 margin and would have won it had their bullpen not blown it. That series loss had nothing to do with their offense and its propensity to strike out.

But there is nothing to worry about. I repeat, there is nothing to worry about. You don’t need in-depth scouting or sabermetric knowledge to realize Kimbrel is likely to finish the 2013 season as one of the best closers in the game once again. With just some basic understanding of pitching and statistics, it’s easy to see there is little to worry about regarding the Braves’ closer.

First of all we should have expected that Kimbrel’s 2013 would be slightly worse than his 2012 season. It’s just unlikely that any player who was that dominant can repeat it. If Babe Ruth hits 60 homeruns and no one in history had ever come close, odds are he’s not going to do it again next season. It’s hard to go from historically great to even more great. So it’s not shocking, even if Kimbrel’s performance over the last few days does mean a little something, that Kimbrel is a little worse this year than last.

But Kimbrel is still great. Kimbrel is still missing plenty of bats. He’s struck out 14.2 batters per 9 innings pitched, down from last season but still amazing. His walk rate is the same as last season, 2 batters per 9 innings pitched. He has given up three homeruns in 13 1/3 innings pitched after giving up three in 62 2/3 innings pitched last season. So odds are his homerun rate by season’s end is sure to be higher than last season. But that’s no guarantee he’ll be a homerun machine. And keep in mind one of the homeruns he allowed this season was a wall-scraper in the Great American Small Park in Cincinnati that would have been an out in almost every other park. This is not insignificant when we are talking three homeruns instead of two.

Kimbrel’s 3.38 ERA seems rather high, especially for Craig Kimbrel. Jacob Peterson (@junkstats on Twitter) pointed out Wednesday, “Craig Kimbrel through May 7, 2013: 3.38 ERA, 40% K rate. Kimbrel through May 7, 2012: 3.27 ERA, 39% K rate.” When a reliever gives up runs early in the season, without a large sample of scoreless innings under his belt, his ERA will be skewed for a while. If Kimbrel gives up 5 runs within a couple of week in July or August, no one wonders if anything major is wrong. But when he gives up 5 runs within a couple of weeks in April and May and it skews his season ERA for the entire season up to that point, especially when he gives up 3 homeruns within the span of a few games, some of us are going to freak out.

It’s the nature of small samples. Kimbrel was bound to give up some runs and some homeruns in 2013. Because he gave up some early in the season, therefore skewing his full season numbers, we see 3.38 versus 1.01 and we think he’s a different pitcher. But by season’s end, there is still a good chance, based on all other indicators, that he’ll finish closer to 1.01 than 3.38.

I probably don’t like Andrelton Simmons’ offense as much as others like his offense. He has the potential to develop more power and he’s going to put the ball in play, so I like him to hit for a high average especially as he develops power and a more experienced major league approach. But fundamentally, at this point in his career, I think he’s a bottom-of-the-order player who provides tremendous value because of his defense.

The Braves should shake up their batting order. I’m a fan of numbers-driven, odds-driven batting order optimization. The Braves have a nice lineup to experiment with an anti-traditional, sabermetric-friendly batting order. They are loaded with good hitters and many of their hitters don’t profile as traditional top-of-the-order guys. Justin Upton is probably the only hitter who is an absolute offensive force but they have plenty of solid hitters. Fredi Gonzalez could fill out a sabermetric-friendly batting order without too much head-scratching, outrage and mainstream media attention, since he doesn’t have that prototypical speedy leadoff guy and high-contact, move-the-runner-over-at-the-expensive-of-OBP number two hitter.

Once Heyward and McCann are back, it would be rather easy for Fredi to fill out a deep lineup in which he could rationalize arranging 1-5 any way he pleases. My preference:

Heyward
Justin Upton
McCann
Uggla
Freeman
B.J. Upton
Francisco
Simmons

This is probably not even a perfectly ideal sabermetric batting order. The data suggests you want your best all-around hitters (in terms of on-base and power) at the #2 and #4 spots in the order. Uggla doesn’t really fit that mold in the cleanup spot, but this arrangement allows for alternating left-handed and right-handed hitters and it gets the more talented hitters (Heyward, Justin, McCann) to the plate more often than all other hitters.

One minor complication of having so many solid hitters but only one absolute offensive stud (Justin), in terms of making out a lineup card, is that the Braves have to rely on those solid-but-not-outstanding hitters to create the RBI opportunities for Justin Upton, if they go with a more traditional approach and put Justin in the middle of the order. With Justin Upton hitting second, they could have Heyward’s on-base skills in front of him, Justin could give all the good hitters behind him RBI opportunities if he merely gets on base or he can advance Heyward with one swing (rather than the more traditional, counterproductive approach of using up outs from the #2 spot to advance the leadoff hitter).

Think about the traditional idea of the batting order. In the first inning, if everything goes well, the speedy leadoff guy gets on base. The #2 hitter then will either bunt him over, will hit a single to the right side, possibly in the way of a hit-and-run, to get him over or will get him over with some sort of contact. But why not, if the leadoff hitter gets on, go for broke by putting your best hitter second. Your best hitter has a good shot to get on base, the leadoff hitter advances and you have two runners on with no outs. Best-case scenario your best hitter, because he’s not only a good on-base guy but a good slugger, hits a two-run homer or gives you an extra-base hit. So your leadoff hitter has already scored and you have a runner in scoring position with no outs, with at least three more solid hitters due up.

The traditional approach of a high-contact, relatively weak hitter batting second is clearly counterproductive. Instead the number two hitter should give you both offensive opportunity (with on-base skills) and offensive advancement (with slugging skills). Having two hitters batting in the first two spots, like Schafer and Simmons, who likely don’t have the skills to produce high on-base percentages or high slugging percentages relatively to the rest of the hitters on the team isn’t the ideal way for the Braves to make out a batting order. Hopefully when Schafer is forced back to the bench with the return of Heyward and the lineup adds more depth with the return of McCann, Fredi Gonzalez will start to make out better batting orders, if not an optimal one.

Jordan Schafer came into this season with a major league career slash line of .221/.305/.301. He got an opportunity to play in a career high 106 games last season with the Houston Astros and put up a line of .211/.297/.294. Schafer’s major league career seemed at the end of its rope.

Juan Francisco entered the 2012 season season with better numbers than Schafer in 81 career games (.284/.331/.450) but only had 11 walks in 181 plate appearances and looked like he would bounce between Triple-A and the majors.

The Braves came calling, first for Francisco prior to the 2012 season then they re-acquired Schafer prior to this season. Francisco struggled in his first season with the Braves but showed power, which had always been the strength of his game. He slugged .432, despite batting only .234, and hit 9 homers in only 205 PA.

This season Francisco figures to get a little more playing time and he’s made the most of it so far, posting a slash line of .316/.339/.544 in his first 59 plate appearances. This is a good time to point out this means nothing in the grand scheme of things, as 59 plate appearances is a pretty miniscule sample.

Schafer has put up even more impressive number in an even more miniscule sample of 21 plate appearances: .438/.550/.500. Again, in the grand scheme, this means nothing. Schafer at his best is probably nothing like a good everyday type player, much less a star.

What Francisco and Schafer’s performances over these few weeks make you feel good about are the Braves’ scouts, front office and their willingness to take chances on player with some tools who so far haven’t shown much at the big league level. No one expects Francisco or Schafer to be good big leaguers. But they are exactly the type players teams should want to fill out some bench spots.

Schafer has speed, he can play centerfield and he’s displayed some power in the past. He slugged .513 at age 20 in A-Ball and High-A. He slugged .471 in Double-A at age 21. Of course none of this guarantees that he’ll be good enough to hold a spot in the majors for the next several seasons. It just means that he’s shown positive skills in the past, not all that long ago, and that acquiring him was a good low-risk move.

I suspect there are some teams who would just assume Schafer wasn’t even worth consideration for a roster spot given that he’s been pretty awful in 914 major league plate appearances (.226/.311/.305). But the Braves were familiar with Schafer, realized he was still rather young even for a baseball player, and were aware that the tools existed somewhere in there beyond the raw numbers. In the age of sabermetrics and advanced statistics, part of the equation is knowing where the numbers are limited in player evaluation and when to rely on information beyond the statistics.

Francisco is a big-time power hitter. Some scouts would probably throw an 80 grade on his raw power (not necessarily his in-game power, because you can’t hit for power if you can’t hit). The knock on him was that he went up to the plate hacking as much as any hitter in the game. The Braves probably realized when a hitter has that much power, if he just figures things out, approach-wise, just enough to take just a few more pitches and wait on the pitches to crush, he could at least be a decent bench option. It doesn’t hurt that Francisco plays third base and the state of third base in the majors isn’t that great right now.

Again, in the sabermetric age perhaps other teams would want no part of a Juan Francisco, being scared off by the lack of an approach and discipline at the plate. But another part of baseball’s information age is understanding positional scarcity (the fact that third base is in a rather sorry state right now) and the importance of extra-base hits to creating runs. Like Schafer, there is no guarantee Francisco sticks around for another several seasons in the majors. But regardless of what happens, this is the type of player to take a chance on. The Braves gave up a minor league reliever for Francisco.

I can’t stress enough that these first few weeks shouldn’t get us too excited or too bummed about Francisco, Schafer or any other player. This is not an analysis of their performance in the small sample of four weeks of a season. The performances of Francisco and Schafer just remind us that the Braves’ scouts and front office seem to know what they are doing. They seem to be willing to take some chances on low-risk, somewhat-high-reward options in hopes of finding a gem. Every now and then you come up with a Brandon Beachy. And what’s the harm if players like Francisco and Schafer don’t work out? They were acquired to be extra players, so you just bring in more.

Justin Upton

HR: 82

RBI: 120

R: 135

TB: 458

So he’s on track to rack up triple digit RBIs for the first time in his career and crush Barry Bonds’ homerun record in the process. And the RBI projection would be higher if the batters ahead of Upton in the lineup could get on base more often. More than half of his league-leading 11 homeruns are solo shots. These numbers are practically a fantasy, but even if reduced by twenty-five percent across the board to account for a rut or three along the way they would be top-tier stats.

Evan Gattis

HR: 56

RBI: 121

R: 75

TB: 328

These numbers are assuming Gattis plays 150 games at his current pace, which obviously will not happen. McCann will be back soon and Gattis will see much less playing time in the role of backup catcher/pinch hitter/emergency first basemen. Still, those would be pretty amazing numbers for a rookie, accounting for more homeruns and RBIs than any single player on the 2012 Braves. Gattis has only played in sixteen games, so there is a very limited amount of information for opposing coaches and pitchers to comb through for weaknesses. Before long pitchers will figure out his approach, his soft spots. Whether or not Gattis can have a successful career in the MLB depends on his ability to make adjustments when necessary.

Jayson Heyward

HR: 18

RBI: 44

R: 70

TB: 132

Ouch. One hundred and fifty games is realistic for Heyward (he played 158 in 2012). But how grueling would it be to watch Heyward continue to hit .121? Here’s another scary one: based on the same formula, he’d accrue a total of 62 hits. As reference, he earned 158 hits last season, averaging one per game. So far in 2013 he’s averaging fewer than one per two games. Sigh. If only we could point to an injury… or an appendix! Tear out that ungrateful, freeloading organ! Maybe a brief stint on the DL is just what J-Hey needs to recover to full strength, refocus, and find his groove. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and vestigial parts in check.

Paul Maholm

W: 23

SO: 193

BB: 62

IP: 204

Whoa. Cy Young, anyone? Paul lost for the first time in his last start, but only on three runs allowed and four hits, which is good enough for the W on many nights. He’s only had two double-digit win seasons in his eight-year career, with 13 in 2012 being his best, so a 20 win season would be significantly better than his norm. It doesn’t hurt that he’s enjoyed a healthy serving of run support.

Craig Kimbrel

SV: 56

SO: 84

BB: 14

R: 0

Still concerned by that shaky spring? The Craig Machine has been his same old dominant self (yesterday’s game and Justin Upton’s defense not withstanding). If he continues at this pace he will rack up more saves this season than either of his previous two seasons and strike fear in the hearts of batters around the globe.

Julio Teheran

W: 7

SO: 105

ER: 98

IP: 184

Some of us are losing patience with Teheran. He’s been the buzz of the farm system for years now, but all that supposed potential has amounted to unimpressive results on the mound, at least during the regular season. How long are the Braves willing to wait for him to develop? I don’t expect this to be a breakout season for Julio, but it would be great to at least see him make some real progress. A sub five ERA would be nice, and is a .500 record too much to ask for? I hope not.

Feel free to badger me on twitter @ThomasMDuncan.

Obviously McCann is a great player who can catch and hit, so an American League team may be able to insert him into a catcher/DH role and get much more out of him than the Braves or any other National League team.  Even a National League team would love to have him as their catcher, should the Braves make him available, no question.  So the issue is not whether the Braves could get something for McCann.  The issue is can the Braves get back what McCann could be worth to them?

On the one hand, McCann is coming off injury.  On the other hand, he’s a great player, who can both hit and catch, and who is still fairly young.  On the other hand a team trading for him would only have him under contract for a little over five months.  So are the Braves better off with McCann and Gattis or Gattis and whomever the Braves get in return for five months of McCann?

It’s hard to know at this point what the Braves have in Gattis.  It’s just too early to tell.  In the minors he dominated kids that were still developing physically and as baseball players.  In the majors he’s done most of his damage off of mediocre-to-poor pitching.  Yet, there is no denying his power and it’s not as if his performance so far has been merely good but outstanding.  If trading McCann is a real possibility the Braves probably want to wait until at least closer to June and maybe not until the deadline approaches.  With a unique player like Gattis, they would probably want to make sure that they have a legit major league everyday catcher.

Even if the Braves wait and Gattis puts up an outstanding 3-4-month period, there is no guarantee the Braves will have an idea of who Gattis is and what he’s likely to do for the final half or final couple of months of the season.  As I wrote in my last post, remember Johnny Estrada looked like a solid major leaguer but he only had one really good season.  By the time we realized who he was, he seemed to be done as a big leaguer.  There is really no point jumping the gun to trade McCann and take the risk that Gattis is truly just a very good backup catcher/pinch-hitter/backup corner-outfielder, unless the Braves could get quite a haul for McCann.

I suppose it’s possible that some team could get desperate for a catcher/DH between the time McCann comes back and the trade deadline, and would give up a ton for McCann.  But, again, as great as McCann is as a baseball player, he’s coming off an injury and, more importantly, he’s only under contract through the rest of this season.  Teams don’t trade and trade for players; they trade and trade for players and their contracts.  I just don’t see a team giving up a good, big-league regular for a player coming off injury and who is only under contact through this season, no matter how good the player they would get back.  And it would be quite risky for the Braves to trust that they know what they have in Gattis, even if he continues to play well, and to trade an outstanding player in McCann, if they aren’t getting at least a first-division, very good, regular player.

If a team is desperate and somehow gives the Braves a clear-cut, better-than-average third baseman or a #2 type starting pitcher, or possibly a prospect or two that have the tools and skills to be at least something close to an All-Star, I don’t know that trading McCann is worthwhile.  And I don’t think that kind of return is likely.  Gattis will likely get plenty of playing time as the second catcher, backup corner-outfielder and the first pinch-hitting option off the bench.  If McCann walks, Gattis’ time will come.  The 2013 Braves are better off with McCann and Gattis than Gattis and whatever they would have to settle for in a McCann trade.

Paul Maholm

The current rotation appears concrete, and no hurler has been more impressive than Maholm. In 12.2 innings pitched he’s allowed no earned runs, just seven hits, and only four walks. Granted, seven of those innings were against the Mighty Mighty Marlins, but hey, they are still technically major league baseball players. They even have that one guy—Giancarlo Stanton. He’s really good. So what if their winning percentage is lower than the average IQ? Jokes aside, it will be great to have Maholm around for an entire season. Of course he can’t maintain this pace for the whole year, but he solidifies the middle of the rotation, which in years past has been paper thin.

Chris Johnson

Honestly, I saw Johnson as an insignificant factor in the Upton/Prado trade. His only value appeared to be a mildly interesting competition of mediocrity between him and Francisco at third base. Instead he’s provided more than advertised, racking up 10 hits in 28 at-bats, as well as four runs. He’s played a decent third base and, even better, done a good job of filling in at first while Freeman is on the mend. What a blessing, because Gattis, as terrific as he is, is no first baseman.

Evan Gattis

Hype follows Gattis like a dust cloud on Pig-Pen (Peanuts jokes, anyone?). But his prowess is not all myth, and he’s proved it at this early stage. El Oso Blanco is enjoying his debut to the tune of four homeruns in eight games, including a homer that made the difference in Saturday’s 3-1 defeat of the Nationals.  He’s got more hashtags than Heyward has hits. When McCann returns to the lineup, he better perform, or calls for Gattis will thunder throughout the stadium.

Ramiro Pena

How’s this for a slash line: .412/.444/.647? Way more than I expected from a backup infielder rescued from obscurity in the Yankees organization. He’s effective defensively, able to play short, third, and second when a starter needs the night off. If you didn’t know his name before Friday night, you do now. His yicketty sealed the victory and made all the highlight reels, but what impressed me more was the guile and grit he showed by bunting for a single in the ninth, which allowed him to later score the tying run. He’s no Martin Prado (there is only one), but he appears to have a similar spirit for the game.

I hope some of Atlanta’s high profile players (J-Hey, Bossman Junior) break out of their slumps, but in the meantime it feels great to win with the aid of the sidekicks.

Here are the pitchers off of which Gattis has gotten hits:

2 hits of LeBlanc who has a career ERA+ of 86

2 hits off Feldman who has a career ERA+ of 94

2 hits off of Alex Sanabia, a 24-year-old with 94 major league innings and a 104 ERA+

A hit of the 2013 version of Roy Halladay, who has walked 7.4 batters per 9 IP in his first two starts.

A hit off of Hector Rondon, who isn’t exactly a control artist.

A hit off of Chad Qualls who, at this point, is barely hanging on as a big league reliever.

So essentially he’s done his damage off of Triple-A or “Quad-A” pitching.  He did plenty of damage in the minors but was a physical beast playing against guys in their early 20′s, having never played above Double-A, so there are reasons to temper the excitement.

And when we are tempted to pay too much attention to early season small samples, we need look no further than 2006 Detroit Tiger Chris Shelton’s start.  Shelton triple-slashed .512/.535/1.293 in his first 10 games and 43 plate appearances of the 2006 season.  Shelton played his last major league game only 3 years later.  However Shelton was a decent hitter.  He just wasn’t a good enough hitter to make up for his complete lack of defensive value.  Even if Gattis is no more than a Chris Shelton, because Gattis can at least be a serviceable catcher, he’s likely to have a more impressive career.  But the point is we can’t overlook that Gattis has only played in 6 major league games.

But if it’s too early to discount what he’s accomplished, it’s also too early to say he’s definitely no more than a bench player that shouldn’t get many starts.  There’s no doubt Gattis has power and some skills.  The indication is that he can be a major league catcher, if for no other reason than the Braves are willing to put him behind the plate regularly.  Even if it turns out that he’s not a very good catcher, the Braves deserve some credit for looking at his entire game, what he can add with his offense, and not putting too much emphasis on possible defensive shortcomings.  Runs are runs, whether the team is preventing them or creating them from a particular position.

Those who are too gung ho on either of the two sides should calm down and just wait it out.  We’ll know soon enough what the Braves have in Evan Gattis.  Then again, maybe not.  It could take over a full season to know who Gattis is.  By the time we truly have a grasp of who he was, the best parts of his career could be over.  Think back to Johnny Estrada.  He came to the majors at a more advanced age than most players, had a great season and by the time we realized he wasn’t all that good, he was playing for other teams and soon enough was out of baseball.  There is a lot we can know in baseball.  We can measure and account for almost anything and everything that happens.  But there is also plenty that surprises us just enough to keep us coming back.  Whether Gattis sustains this and keeps on surprising us or he just surprised us until he doesn’t, let’s view things through a skeptical lens but enjoy what he’s doing for as long as he does it.

-”This, then, is an exaggerated sort of microcosm of the offense most of us envisioned coming from this new-look, potent Braves lineup, which has a lot of free-swinging guys with good to outstanding power and very little in the way of on-base machines.”

This statement is mostly true, with one caveat:  The Braves, as a team, should get on base at a good rate.  The National League average OBP last season was .318.  According to Steamer Projections (that can be found on FanGraphs) the Braves are projected to have 8 hitters post an OBP above .320.  Steamer projects Justin Upton, Heyward and Freeman all at above .350; and it projects McCann and Uggla to post OBP’s above .335.  I suppose that one could say the Braves technically don’t have “on-base machines,” as they don’t have too many guys that are expected to on-base around .400.  But even if some of these players fall short of their projected rates, the Braves should have a solid on-base team from top-to-bottom.  And we should all know by now that on-base and slugging equals run creation.  Strikeouts don’t necessarily have a huge influence on how well a team gets on-base and slugs.

-”But man, this team is going to strike out a lot.

“Which is fine, as long as the Braves get solid pitching and defense, and most of the key hitters in their lineup stay reasonably healthy. If all that happens, I predict the Braves will push the Nats to the end, with each team winning about 100 games, give or take a couple.”

Well, the Braves should get decent pitching.  I don’t know how well their infield defense, aside from Simmons, will be.  But I think it’s safe to assume that they’ll score some runs.  I think they can withstand some injuries here and there.  As long as there aren’t lot of major injuries, I think they’ll be fine.  I wouldn’t bet on any team winning 100 games but it wouldn’t shock me either if the Braves and Nationals are close.  I think it’s possible that the Braves could on-base and slug their way to a playoff berth, even if the pitching and defense is subpar.  If everything goes right with the offense, even if the strikeout a lot, they could post a very good team on-base percentage and an outstanding team slugging percentage.

- “Strikeouts totals have climbed throughout baseball lately, and Gonzalez noted this spring that sabermetric statistical analysts say strikeouts aren’t as bad as traditionalists think, and that striking out isn’t significantly more harmful than making an out any other way.”

I think this is a mischaracterization of what most statistical analysts say about strikeouts.  All outs are bad.  Strikeouts may generally be a little worse than other outs.  But on-base (or out-avoidance) and slugging are king, in terms of creating runs.  So even if a team strikeouts out a lot, a team could still get on base at a high rate and slug at a high rate.  It seems counterintuitive but how often a team makes outs isn’t necessarily determined by how often or how many times they make a specific type of out.  A team that strikes out a lot isn’t necessarily going to make outs at a high rate.  That point can’t be overstated when discussing teams like this year’s Braves and their offensive potential.

- “Still, it must also be noted that teams that strike out the most haven’t tended to advance deep in the postseason. No World Series champion has struck out as many as 1,200 times, and of the last eight teams in the World Series, seven ranked fifth or better in fewest strikeouts in their respective league, including four that were first or second.”

“No other team has had even five players with 120 strikeouts, but these Braves team could easily join that list.”

Plenty of the recent World Series champions have got there on the strength of pitching and, frankly, randomness that occurs in the small sample of short playoff series.  Also there are so many factors that go into a team winning the World Series so it’s hard to conclude that the propensity for batters to strike out is definitely a cause in a team not making a deep playoff run, especially when we are only looking at only eight teams.

Also, strikeouts have been rising basically since the beginning of organized professional baseball, so it’s not surprising that no World Series champion has struck out 1,200 times.  It’s kind of like saying no World Series champion has had a $300 million payroll.  It’s not really saying all that much because it wasn’t until relatively recently that teams started striking out that many times.

A better way to look at this is whether strikeout totals are a hindrance to scoring runs, based on where teams rank in strikeouts and where teams rank in runs scored.  There is all kinds of research that we can find very easily by searching Google for “strikeouts correlation to runs scored” or something to that effect to see that there is virtually no relationship between strikeouts and scoring runs.  (One article that comes up is one that directly addresses the 2013 Braves and the strikeout concerns: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-upton-the-braves-and-their-strikeouts/.)  We can also look at the top scoring teams in the history of the game on a case-by-case basis.  Of the top 10 scoring teams in history, all of them finished in the top 4 in their leagues in strikeouts.

If the Braves reach their offensive potential they could be somewhat similar to the 2004 Red Sox.  The 2013 Braves, even if they do maximize their potential, probably won’t be quite as potent an offensive team (because they don’t quite have a Manny Ramirez or a David Ortiz in their primes), but the Braves could post a high on-base percentage, a high slugging percentage, lots of runs scored, and finish near the top of the their league in strikeouts.

First of all the Braves probably used Venters in too many games in which they didn’t need to.  There is little doubt in my mind that they overused him in that regard and for that management deserves at least some criticism.  Just to be clear I don’t want to argue that the Braves organization is free from blame for at least increasing the risk, however mildly, of a Venters injury.

But I’m not sure how much blame Braves management truly deserves, not that anyone is trying to put a precise percentage on the different factors on which to place blame.  If the Braves could have done something differently, they probably should have.  The Braves are a major league organization and they should have a clear understanding of win probabilities and when it is or isn’t appropriate to bring in a pitcher like Venters.  And I would assume they have read or perhaps done their own research on pitcher injuries and usage.

I do want to cut the Braves some slack.  Given the context, we can and should forgive them at least some for using Jonny Venters as much as they did.  In 2010, Venters’ first season, and 2011 the Braves were in tight playoff races and every run prevented and every potential run prevented may have been huge and could have been significant in leading the Braves to the postseason.

Remember also in 2010 the Braves were coming off a 2009 season in which they missed the playoffs by a mere 6 games, finishing second to the Rockies, and much was made of keeping Tommy Hanson down in the minors until June for what was viewed as service-time reasons.  Presumably the Braves wanted to keep him from free agency and arbitration another season.  Remember this was given as a reason Jason Heyward was in the majors from Day 1 of the 2010 season.

Venters was called up early in the 2010 season and once the Braves realized what they had, they relied on him heavily throughout the 2010 season.  After winning the Wild Card by one game in 2010, they used him in more games than any team used any reliever in 2011.  You could sense the Braves were ready to get back to relevance around 2009-2010 and they pulled out all the stops, even it it meant using and perhaps overusing their top relievers.  Does that mean the team always used Venters appropriately?  No.  But maybe we should forgive them some for throwing caution into the wind and taking a risk by using pitchers like Venters as often as they did.

But it’s not just about the closeness of playoff races or games.  There’s also the fact that even in a season in which Venters led the league in games, he pitched in 88 innings.  Granted that’s a lot for a reliever but it’s very possible that a pitcher who can’t hold up after an 88-inning season is bound to face injury issues regardless of whether the workload is 60 innings or 88 innings.  Venters missed the 2006 minor league season because of Tommy John surgery.  The attrition rate for relievers is pretty high.  It may be safe to assume the Braves realized Venters’ time as a great pitcher wasn’t likely to last and they wanted to get as many bullets as they could out of him while he was on their staff and while they had a chance to make the playoffs and possibly reach the World Series.

On the Atlanta Baseball Talk message board I made the comment, and Curt addressed it in last week’s podcast, that if the Cubs had won the World Series in 2003, maybe it was worth the risk to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood’s careers.  This may have come across a little colder and harsher than intended.  I’m definitely not for carelessly blowing pitchers’ arms out in hopes of winning.  I agree with Curt that a team should be responsible with a human being’s career and for the future of the franchise.  But I do think that in some context it may be wise to take risks in order to win.

There is a balancing act and no team should be completely foolish.  But there are situations in which maybe you let a young pitcher pitch more because you have a legitimate shot at winning big.  I do believe this is especially true with hard-throwing relievers, particular relievers with injury histories, because they may only have 3-4 years of dominance if they are lucky no matter how cautious a team is with such pitchers.  What makes all this even more fuzzy is that no one seems to know how to keep pitchers healthy and how much is too much usage.  So there is this balancing act between risk and reward on which it is impossible to get a firm grasp.  There is no specific formula.  In some cases perhaps taking a bit of a somewhat calculated risk with a pitcher’s career is worth going for it.

In the Cubs’ case, the stakes were of course their first World Series appearance since 1945 and their first World Series win since 1908.  The stakes weren’t quite that high for Venters and the Braves, the franchise having won a World Series in 1995.  But you never know when that opportunity will present itself again.

Twitter: @PayneBall

1. Washington Nationals

2. Atlanta Braves (Wild Card)

3. Philadelphia Phillies

4. New York Mets

5. Florida Marlins

I have to go with the Nationals to win the East.  A lot went right for them last season, so they could take a step back, but they are still very talented.  With a little luck, the Braves could win this thing.  I still think the Braves are up there as the third-best team in the league and will take a Wild Card spot.  It’s more likely that the Nationals win a close race.  The Phillies are a popular pick to bounce back but with Roy Halladay dealing with his velocity issues, it will be tough for them to keep pace.  The Mets are Marlins are both rebuilding.

NL CENTRAL

1. Cincinnati Reds

2. St. Louis Cardinals

3. Milwaukee Brewers

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

5. Chicago Cubs

The Reds may be the best team in the National League.  They have quality at every position, a deep rotation and a bullpen second only to the Braves’.  The Cardinals are a notch above the Brewers and Pirates, and the Cubs are a close 5th.  The Reds should with this division fairly comfortably.

NL WEST

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. San Francisco Giants (Wild Card)

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

4. San Diego Padres

5. Colorado Rockies

Not only do the Dodgers have talent, they have the money and the ownership has the will to do what it takes to win now.  The Giants are still very good but have some aging players.  They jumped from 86 wins to 94 wins, so I think they’ll take a step back in 2013.  I’m still picking them for one of the Wild Card spots.  The Diamondbacks and Padres seem somewhat similar and neither seem to have the talent to match Los Angeles or San Francisco.  The Rockies are trying to get back to relevancy.

AL EAST

1. Tampa Bay Rays

2. Toronto Blue Jays (Wild Card)

3. Boston Red Sox

4. New York Yankees

5. Baltimore Orioles

For the first time in recent memory, the Yankees lack the star power to win the East handily, thanks to a rash of injuries and the age of some key players.  Every team in the division has noticeable weaknesses but every team has a reason to believe they can win it.  I’m going with the Rays.  They have the depth and they always seem to get the most out of their roster.  The Blue Jays got plenty of attention for their big offseason moves.  They are a good team but they may be over-hyped a bit.  Remember all their key additions were members of a last-place Marlins team.  Still, I think they earn a Wild Card spot.  The Red Sox made some nice moves to get solid players at almost every position.  John Ferrell may help their pitching staff.  For as bad as it seems for the Yankees, they still have Robinson Cano and a quality pitching staff.  They’ll be better than most people might think but that’s still fourth place in a tight division.  I don’t buy the Orioles just yet.  We all know about their extremely good records in one-run and extra-inning games.  They have plenty of young talent to contend soon but they are due to fall back in 2013.

AL CENTRAL

1. Detroit Tigers

2. Cleveland Indians

3. Kansas City Royals

4. Chicago White Sox

5. Minnesota Twins

The Tigers are a strong team in the weakest division in the game.  If every team in baseball somehow played a balanced schedule, I have a hard time seeing the Indians, Royals, White Sox and certainly the Twins playing .500 ball.  I don’t know that the Tigers are an overwhelmingly great team but they are certainly in the class of teams like the Braves, Nationals and Dodgers, which could mean a lot of wins in a rather weak division.

AL WEST

1. Texas Rangers

2. Los Angeles Angels (Wild Card)

3. Oakland Athletics

4. Seattle Mariners

5. Houston Astros

Though the Blue Jays and Tigers are getting all the hype, I still believe the Rangers are the best team in the American League.  The run out good players at every position, have the depth and have the pitching.  The Angels are close but there are some question marks about their pitching after Weaver and C.J. Wilson.  Any staff with Tommy Hanson penciled in at number three should be worried.  Everything seemed to go right with the A’s last season.  After finishing with no more than 81 wins the previous five seasons, it’s hard not to view 2012 as somewhat of a fluke.  Still they have some talent and there’s no reason to expect them to finish behind the Mariners or Astros.  The Mariners are starting to climb as a franchise.  The Astros appear to be stripping down to reload their farm system, save money for when they are ready to contend and to get that first overall pick again.  They are pulling a Marlins but hopefully, for their fans, with more consistent results in the long term.

NL MVP: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Voters love players on winners.  Votto will hit in the middle of the lineup for possibly the best team in the National League, if not baseball.

AL MVP: Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels

Pujols is as good a candidate as any to bounce back to a MVP level.  The Angels will win a Wild Card spot and I can see the writers giving Pujols the credit as a steady, veteran presence on a team with high expectations.

NL Cy Young: Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies

Last year Cliff Lee had a great season.  No one noticed because he went 9-6.  But he had the fewest walks per 9 IP, the 9th-best ERA, the 4th-most strikeouts and the 7th-most innings pitched.  Unlike Strasburg, Lee is old enough and seemingly healthy enough that no one is going to care about pitch counts or any sort of innings limits.

1) Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen will combine for 35 or more wins. Both starters have something to prove: Teheran needs to show that he is ready for a complete season in the bigs, and Medlen is out to validate his showing last season. There are still analysts and fans who see Medlen’s second-half performance from last year as a fluke or unrepeatable. I expect Kris to have a breakout season and silence the naysayers. Teheran has been brutally effective this spring. I know spring numbers don’t really matter, and that pitchers are typically ahead of hitters at this time of the year, but his overall progress is indicative of a rising star.

2) As a team, the Braves will commit the fewest errors of any National League team. Each everyday player on the club is a sound fielder. Even the third-base duo is capable of maintaining control of the hot corner. Nothing gets by Simmons at short, and Freeman stretches like salt water taffy. The new and improved outfield can cover tons of real estate and throw the ball with strength and accuracy.

3) Uggla will bounce back. Honestly, how can he not? 2012 was the worst season of his career, practically rock bottom. Even if Uggla bats .235 with 25 homers, that would show significant improvement. Hopefully he can continue to draw walks and earn a high on-base percentage.

4) The Braves will have another bumpy start. Last year they got swept by the Mets to begin the season. While I don’t expect the Phils to take all three in the opening series, the Braves may struggle to begin the year. The team is improved as a whole, but many new pieces are in place and it may take a few weeks for some players to find their grooves. A second-half surge will make up for it.

5) Hudson’s decline is on the horizon. Old Man Time shows leniency to only a lucky few, and Tim may not be one of them.  Huddy isn’t exactly a workhorse type of pitcher, and he’s never been immune to injury. He won’t be a total black hole in the rotation, but he won’t be a consistent seven innings of low-scoring baseball, either.

6) The Braves won’t make a single trade during the 2013 season. Opening day is nearly upon us, and for once the Braves have a complete team, no glaring chinks in the armor. Bench players like Gattis and Schafer, as well as having a pair of serviceable third basemen, make the team deeper, more capable of absorbing an injury. Barring multiple significant losses, the Braves won’t need to make a deadline move to solidify the squad—it is already solid.

7) McCann will lead the team in homeruns. He won’t be ready in time for opening day, but when Brian does return he should finally be at one hundred percent health, something we haven’t seen from McCann in some time. It’s also the final year of his contract, meaning he needs to prove what he’s worth. I look forward to a robust, powerful McCann in the middle of the lineup.

8) The National League will win a fourth consecutive All-Star Game. A resounding 8-0 victory in 2012 showed the NL is no longer the inferior league. Look for the NL to continue their winning ways.

9) The Braves will sweep the Cardinals. There may be a bit of lingering bad blood between these two teams, or at least between the fans (remember the reports of the Cards chanting “Infield Fly” during the post-game celebration?). The Redbirds come to town for a weekend series in late July, when I expect the Braves to be finely tuned and on top of their game. A little extra incentive in the way of revenge never hurts.

10) The Upton Brothers will combine for 40 homeruns and 40 stolen bases. There’s no combination I love more than power and speed, which is what makes me so enthusiastic about the new outfield. A competitive brotherly spirit will help these two push each other and drive the Braves to a winning season.

11) Jason Heyward will be a serious candidate for MVP, but not win. With a strong supporting cast of teammates, much of the pressure and scrutiny is off of J-Hey. I see him making a big impact this season, with his bat, glove, arm, and even on the base paths. Imagining Heyward’s full potential makes me shudder.

12) Kimbrel will dominate his way to 45 saves. Don’t put too much stock in his spotty spring training appearances. He still has a killer fastball and nasty slider, good enough to intimidate and eliminate even the best hitters in baseball. I wouldn’t want the ball in any other hand come inning nine.

13) The Braves will win 95 games. The big-name signings, improvements to the rotation, bolstering of the bullpen—all of that will secure the team one more win than last year. We play in a strong division (ignoring Miami and New York), and 95 wins will not come easy. That number will land Atlanta in the dreaded one-game playoff. When I close my eyes I still see bottles and trash raining onto the field. It’s time for new memories. It’s time for a new season. Let’s go Braves!

Leave your own bold predictions in the comment section below, and follow me on twitter @ThomasMDuncan.

The Rotation

2012: Mike Minor, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Randall Delgado, Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen, Paul Maholm, Jair Jurrjens, Ben Sheets

2013: Hudson, Medlen, Maholm, Minor, Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy

Brandon Beachy was a beast in his 13 starts before getting hurt.  Kris Medlen was great when he moved to the rotation.  Maholm and Hudson were very good.  Minor had his ups and downs but was outstanding at the end of the season.  Delgado and Hanson pitched like decent fifth starters, nothing more.  Those pitchers got the bulk of the Braves’ starts in 2012.

In 2013, Teheran joins a solid roation.  Hudson is older but he is a groundball machine.  We should expect him to be no worse than a better-than-league average pitcher that will give the Braves 170-200 innings.  It’s hard to imagine Medlen being any better than he was last year but he’ll probably be the best pitcher on the staff.  I don’t know if Cy Young contention is realistic, though I wouldn’t count it out, but I expect him to pitch at an all-star level.  I see no reason to expect Minor to take a step back from his strong comeback in the second half of 2012.  He’s probably a number three, in scouting terms.  Maholm is a notch behind Hudson and Minor but he’ll give the Braves decent innings.  Beachy is expected to come back around mid-season and who knows if he’ll be the same pitcher he was.  I suspect he’ll provide at least something similar to Hudson and Maholm.  The wild card is Teheran.  He has the upside of a legit number two but hasn’t shown much in his first 26 major league innings.  However, he’s still only 22 and this is his first Spring with a pretty much guaranteed rotation spot.  The Braves are just looking for him to hold down the 5th spot but could get more than they bargain for.

Overall the rotation last year was solid but not great.  I can see it being better in 2013 but I’m not sure by how much.  Minor should be better this season and the Braves won’t have disappointments Hanson and Jurrjens making starts.  I give a slight edge to the 2013 rotation.

The Bullpen

2012: Craig Kimbrel, Cristhian Martinez, Chad Durbin, Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty

2013: Kimbrel, Martinez, Venters, O’Flaherty, Jordan Walden, Luis Avilan

Obviously this has been the Braves’ strength over the last few seasons, since they’ve bounced back from their ’06-’09 lull.  There’s little doubt Kimbrel is the most dominating reliever and per-inning pitcher in baseball.  Venters has his struggles in 2012 but his overall numbers were good.  O’Flaherty is coming off of back-to-back dominant seasons.  The Braves essentially trade Durbin for Walden.  As long as Walden is healthy, this will be a big upgrade.  Walden is another high-strikeout reliever.  When the Braves need a strikeout late in a game, they have four options.  Martinez comes back as the long reliever.  Luis Avilan could play a bigger role as a lefty specialist.

If Walden is healthy the Braves’ bullpen could be even a little better than it has been.  I definitely don’t see a downgrade here.

Catching

2012: Brian McCann, David Ross

2013: McCann, Gerald Laird, Evan Gattis, Matt Pagnozzi

McCann had an injury-plagued 2012, his worst season in the majors.  He got his shoulder fixed and we should expect a strong bounce-back season.  But he will be out the first couple of weeks or so.  They’ll miss Ross.  Laird is a definite downgrade.  He’s your typical veteran back-up catcher.  If Gattis can handle catching, defensively, he’s an intriguing possibility.  He has the bat and it looks like he may start the season as Laird’s back-up.  If he can play the position well enough to be the number one back-up option, the Braves won’t miss Ross too much.

With McCann expected to be all better, even considering him missing a couple of weeks or so, it’s hard to go against the 2013 Braves in the catching category.  And watch out for Gattis as a back-up option.

First Base

2012 and 2013: Freddie Freeman

If anything, Freeman, given his age, will be a little better.  Not much else to say here.

Second Base

2012 and 2013: Dan Uggla

It’s hard to imagine Uggla being much worse than he was in 2012 but it’s quite possible that he could be about the same or a little worse.  He’s been trending downward in every meaningful way since his trade to the Braves.  He drew a ton of walks last year which kept him from being a dreadful hitter but his power disappeared and he’s never been a great hitter for average.  The good news is he’s not that old, so his power could return to some degree.  The bad news is that, again, he never had a ton of skills in terms of hitting for average so it could be another season of a respectable on-base without much power.  He’s not quite as awful as his reputation among fans who expected 30-plus homers for Uggla every season but he hasn’t been good either.  It’s possible the Braves could look to upgrade by the All-Star break or the deadline if Uggla starts slow.

Third Base

2012: Chipper Jones, Juan Francisco

2013: Juan Francisco, Chris Johnson

Chipper was the team’s best hitter on a per-PA basis.  There is a significant downgrade to Francisco and Johnson.  However, Francisco offers plenty of power.  Johnson is somewhat similar in that he offers power, though not many players can match Francisco’s raw power.  Still, Chipper’s overall offensive game was so good, the Braves will take a hit here.

Shortstop

2012: Paul Janish, Tyler Pastornicky, Andrelton Simmons

2013: Andrelton Simmons

Pastornicky was given the job to open 2012 but fell on his face.  Simmons was about as good as anyone could have imagined until he got hurt.  Simmons’ defense is already elite or close to it.  The question has always been the bat.  But it appears that his bat is good enough to at least make him a quality shortstop, and may be good enough to make him an all-star caliber player.  Having Simmons for a full season is a noticeable upgrade over last season.

Leftfield

2012: Martin Prado

2013: Justin Upton

Prado had probably his best season in 2012.  It wouldn’t be shocking, as talented as Upton is, if 2012 Prado was a little better than 2013 Upton.  But it’s also very possible for Upton to be an MVP caliber player.  The safe assumption is probably somewhere in the middle: noticeably better than Prado but not to an extreme degree.

Centerfield

2012: Michael Bourn

2013: B.J. Upton

Bourn started off the season hot but cooled quite a bit in the second half, and his overall numbers ended up being about where we would have expected them to be.  Bourn provided great defense and baserunning but was around league-average at the plate.  Upton is similar in terms of the overall value he might provide but he’s obviously a different type of player.  Upton should provide more at the plate.  He’s not as good defensively as Bourn (not many are) and his defensive metrics look awful.  But scouts seem to think he’s a fine centerfielder.  You wonder if spacious Tropicana Field, where he played his home games his whole career, did something tonot only his offensive but also his defensive numbers.  Upton has more power than Bourn and has the same type of hit and on-base skills, and it’s not as if he’s an awful baserunner or defender.  If Upton is a downgrade, it’s not much of one.

Rightfield

2012 and 2013: Jason Heyward

Heyward bounced back from an injury-plagued 2011 and seemed to move towards establishing himself as one of the better all-around players in the game.  He didn’t put up monster offensive numbers but you combine his solid offense with great defense and baserunning and you get a very good all-around baseball player.  Health has always been the only question mark for Heyward.  If healthy, there’s no reason to expect anything but improvement, at his young age.

Other Bench Players

2012: Ross, Francisco, Janish, Eric Hinske, Matt Diaz, Reed Johnson

2013: Gattis, Jordan Schafer, Johnson, Johnson/Francisco, Ramiro Pena, Janish

The Braves didn’t get much out of their bench in 2012.  Ross, Janish and Francisco played well when they filled in for regulars, but most of the value someone like Ross gave them was essentially in a starting role.  Gattis hasn’t played above Double-A but at 26 is at an age when players start to peak and he’s displayed plenty of offensive skill.  If he can catch and play leftfield, he’ll provide plenty of value as a backup player/pinch-hitter.  Aside from Francisco or Johnson coming off the bench, I’m not sure they’ll get a whole lot from their bench this season.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see Schafer develop as a solid backup outfielder.  He’s shown some pop at certain points in his pro career, he has speed and he can play centerfield.  Reed Johnson is probably nothing more than a fill-in at this point in his career.  Ramiro Pena is the backup infielder until Janish returns.  Both are essentially insurance policies that can play shortstop, so don’t expect either one of them to provide much.

Summary: The only obvious downgrade is at thirdbase and, admittedly, it probably will be quite noticeable.  There’s tremendous potential for significant upgrades at catcher and shortstop, and rightfield could be a slight upgrade, if not a significant one.  Overall I don’t see that the 2013 team is likely to be dramatically better than the 2012 team but, barring major injuries or other surprises, it shouldn’t be worse.  If Justin Upton has another MVP-caliber season, McCann returns to form, and Heyward and Freeman take big leaps forward, the 2013 team could be a lot better than the 2012 Braves.  The 2013 team clearly has more upside.  But a lot probably has to go right for it to be drastically better than last year’s team.  Still, if 2012 is a starting point for our expectations, there’s a lot to look forward to.

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This combination is great unless you have an insatiable habit like I do.  Snacking.  Not just a piece of candy here or some chips there.  We’re talking “entire bag of peanut M&Ms” type snacking.  As you can guess, this hyper-habit leads to a very unhealthy FireCorgi.  So I’m doing what every out of shape man does in his 40’s.  I’m going to the gym first thing in the morning, 5 days a week.  I’m really enjoying it and I’m actually excited about getting my workout in everyday after my cup of coffee.  The great thing about the gym, as opposed to running in the neighborhood or having workout equipment at your house, is that you’re around other people.  Other people means people watching.  And there may not be a better place to people watch than the gym.  I spend a good bit of my mental time coming up with nicknames and laughing at my fellow gym occupants that are, let’s say, “different from the mainstream”.  Some of my favorites are:

LL Bean – guy that wears a collar shirt, shorts or slacks with belt and Teva type shoes.  I can only assume this person has a Boy Scout meeting inside an REI store after his workout and he wants to fit in PERFECTY

Rhett Michaels – this is the dim witted half brother of rocker Bret Michaels.  He ALWAYS wears a bandana when working out.  I assume he does this for the same reason Bret does it…cause he’s only 29 and already bald.

Sex in the City – this is not one woman, but a group of no less than 3.  They come in their work clothes, change and hit the recumbent bikes (right next to each other).  They pedal at the lowest possible speed while reading People, Entertainment Weekly, Cosmo or any bridal magazine.  They chit chat for about 20 minutes while eye balling the Today Show and then leave.

The Mayor – this is usually a guy and he’s usually a total idiot.  His main form of cardio is leaning up against ANY piece of useful gym equipment and talking (and by talking I mean hitting on) to any woman under the age of 55.  He’ll be at the gym for about 90 minutes or so and exercises for about 10 of that.

The Panther – this is the guy we all know.  He is VERY loud when lifting and slams the weight down after each set.  He then proceeds to pace around his workout like a lion might walk around an injured gazelle.  He usually wears long pants since he only works his upper body and is embarrassed his legs look like a 12 year old.

I thought about the new look Atlanta Braves during one of my less eventful workouts, trying to think about what their persona will be this year and in the years to come.  Our Braves have a unique opportunity to establish themselves as a team younger fans will be drawn to.  The Braves have always captured the Southern white baseball fan.  From Tennessee to Mississippi to anywhere in Georgia, you’ll see white southerners sporting their Braves gear during the long summer months.  But with the signing of both BJ and Justin Upton, along with the maturation of the “Jay Hay Kid”, Jason Heyward, the Atlanta Braves can do themselves a big service by promoting the team as THE TEAM younger African American kids can relate and root for.  Atlanta is already seen as the place where young, happening, talented African Americans can come and thrive.  From the HUGE music scene to the host of historical Black colleges and universities, Atlanta is viewed a place where all are welcome and all can succeed.  With our Braves displaying the most talented outfield in MLB bar none and all three positions are young American black players, it just seems smart to use it as a platform to market Atlanta as “the team for the next generation”.  And it’s not just those three guys.  With Andrelton Simmons, Freddie Freeman, Kris Medlen, Craig Kimbrel, Mike Minor, Jordan Schafer, and Julio Teheran, the Braves also have young players at key positions.  But the Upton Brothers and Heyward give the Atlanta Braves a real chance to capture the hearts of young African American fans that may be thinking of baseball as their sport of choice.  With all the health/safety concerns surrounding football and the never ending way soccer falls short as an actual popular sport after 8^th grade, more kids may be playing baseball in the coming years.  And if a lot of those kids need a hip, cool team to root for that they can relate to, the Braves just MIGHT be America’s Team for 30 more years.  While I firmly believe that baseball IS the most diverse major sport (just look at any roster, it’s like a Benetton commercial), you just don’t see that in its fan base.  And if MLB is serious on ways they can bring a more diverse fans base to the ballpark, they need to look no further than the Atlanta Braves.  MLB, the Braves and the City of Atlanta need to focus on marketing the Braves to young African American fans.  If they do, Atlanta will continue to have one of the most loyal fan bases in the majors.  And it will be one of the most diverse as well.  And that’s a great thing for baseball.

For more of my shenanigans, follow me on Twitter at @YourDailyVinnie.  Thanks!

“Oh,” one of the Yankees fans said when I answered. I was ready for it. I was ready for him to call me a bandwagoner. But he didn’t. He said, “You guys are gonna be good this year.”

I agreed. The Mets fan suggested that we’ve got a pretty good chance at the NL East title in 2013. He talked about how impressive Craig Kimbrel is (pronouncing the second syllable like it rhymes with “bell”).

So it hasn’t happened yet, but that doesn’t mean it won’t. And I can understand why. I’m an out-of-market fan of a team that is making headlines. The uniting of the Upton brothers is big, exciting news. Jason Heyward is making TV commercials. We’ve got the best closer in the game. Our team image is one of cool youth. It’s a fact: there will be bandwagoners.

It’s obvious why bandwagoners are so reviled by true fans. They appear out of nowhere as soon as it is fashionable to be a fan, often outfitted in brand new team apparel—hats with no bends in the brims, jersey t-shirts—and declare their newfound love for their new team as if they have been faithful followers their whole lives. It can be frustrating, especially when the fan in question has no sense of the team’s history, failures, or achievements. Bandwagoners are loud in their support, but they stand with out foot out the door, always ready to jump ship for a more successful, more popular team. They don’t wait out losing seasons and suffer with the team. They don’t wear those unblemished hats after their team loses in the one-game wildcard playoff.

But there’s another way to look at the situation: bandwagoners don’t deserve our scorn, they deserve our sympathy. Sticking with a team through years of struggle and defeat is what makes the taste of victory so sweet, and that’s something a bandwagoner will never understand or experience. Sad, right?

So here’s my message: Bandwagoners welcome. Enjoy your stay, but wipe your feet at the door. We’re happy to have you.

Maybe a few of them will even see the error in their ways, quit wandering from team to team, and give true fandom a try.

A projection system I’ve discovered that does a great job of considering playing time along with other factors is Steamer.  (You can find Steamer projections at FanGraphs and information on the system at steamerprojections.com.)

From steamerprojections.com: “We have ‘backtested’ a large number different possible forecasts systems, in order to determine the proper ratio of weights for data from recent seasons and the correct amount of regression for each component of performance.”

Let’s look at some of the highlights of what Steamer projects for the Braves.

(I’ll often refer to wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average).  wOBA is a measure of overall offense which takes in to account the run value of each type of hit, of a walk, of a HBP and also factors in outs.  Slugging percentage counts a double twice as much as a single whereas wOBA takes in to account the run value of a single and the run value of a double.  So it’s viewed as a more precise measure of offensive contribution.  It’s essentially OPS on steroids, no pun intended.)

Most Valuable Brave: Jason Heyward (5.5 WAR, .266/.354/.477, .358 wOBA, 13 SB, 7 CS).  Steamer projects Heyward to continue his superb all-around play.  It projects him to be the 9th-most valuable position player in baseball, sandwiched between Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki.  Justin Upton isn’t too far behind, with a projected WAR of 5.1.  Defense is the major separator as Justin Upton has the better offensive projections.

The Braves and Value:  Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are expected, by Steamer, to provide the most value.  B.J. Upton, Brian McCann, Andrelton Simmons, Dan Uggla, Freddie Freeman, Kris Medlen, Paul Maholm, Tim Hudson and Mike Minor all are in the next tier, between 2 and 3.1 WAR.  The Braves have quite a bit of depth.  You probably wouldn’t put money on any Brave winning the MVP, based on Steamer (although Heyward and Justin Upton aren’t too far from it), but there aren’t many weaknesses.  As we would expect Heyward and Simmons project to provide most of the defensive value.

Best Hitter: Justin Upton (.374 wOBA, .287/.369/.506, 12 SB, 7 CS).  Steamer expects Upton to bounce back strongly, maybe not in line with his best seasons with the Diamondbacks but pretty close. Steamer projects Upton’s wOBA as the 14th-best in the majors, just behind Andrew McCutchen and just ahead of David Ortiz.

The Offense: Justin Upton, Heyward and Freeman lead the way, all with projected wOBA’s above .353.  McCann and Uggla are in the .330′s, with B.J. not too far behind at .325.  Steamer thinks what we all do, that thirdbase, with Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson will be a weak spot.  Francisco’ wOBA is projected to be .319 while Johnson is projected at .315.  Still that production isn’t absolutely dreadful.  Both are projected to be above replacement level.  For the record, Steamer offers a projection for Chipper Jones: .274/.361/.427 with a .341 wOBA, 10th-best projected wOBA among the players they consider thirdbasemen.

Key Backups:  Steamer confirms what we all have been hearing about Gattis, that his bat is good enough for the majors but not so good as to provide much value if he can’t cut it anywhere defensively.  Steamer has Gattis at .262/.315/.451 with a .329 wOBA.  So essentially he’s expected to provide around the same offensive production as B.J. Upton.  If he can be a serviceable catcher, he will be a very valuable asset to this team.  At worst, he looks like a solid bench bat that can be a body in leftfield, catcher and possibly firstbase.  Ernesto Mejia is similar to Gattis, a .322 projected wOBA, but Mejia has even fewer defensive options, as he’s clearly a firstbaseman.  Gerald Laird is expected to provide 0.3 WAR, as is Tyler Pastornicky, probably because he’s capable of playing shortstop, which keeps him above replacement-level.  Reed Johnson is projected at 0.2 WAR, about what we would expect from probably a once-a-week outfielder.

Most Valuable Braves Pitcher:  Kris Medlen (3 WAR, 3.78 ERA, 121 SO, 44 BB, 14 HR, 159 IP).  Medlen doesn’t project to be a consensus true ace but there just aren’t that many of them.  Medlen is expected to provide solid contributions in the rotation.  With Beachy out, Medlen should do plenty to pick up the slack.

The Rotation:  Maholm and Hudson project to each post 2.4 WAR while Minor is right behind at 2 WAR.  Steamer isn’t all that optimistic about Teheran, projecting him at a 4.49 ERA and 0.3 WAR.  However he’ll be at the backend of the rotation as the number five starter.  Beachy is due back at some point around mid-season.  Plus, the Braves has some players down on the farm, if they get desperate for another starter.  At worst, they could probably make another move for a Maholm type rather easily.

Most Valuable Reliever: Craig Kimbrel (1.4 WAR, 1.89 ERA, 83 SO, 22 BB, 4 HR, 54 IP, 35 SV).  Kimbrel is projected to have the lowest ERA in the majors and the highest K/9 rate (13.89).  On a per-inning basis, he’s probably the best pitcher in the game.  Steamer projects Kimbrel to have the same WAR as Tommy Hanson, a starter they project to throw 142 innings to Kimbrel’s 54.

The Bullpen: Steamer projects a 2.81 ERA from Jonny Venters, a 3.33 ERA from Jordan Walden and a 3.27 ERA from Eric O’Flaherty.  All three project to have K/9 rates above 9.5.  We hear about the Braves’ hitters strikeouts being a problem but the ability of the bullpen to miss bats could be a bigger factor, both throughout the regular season and in the playoffs.  Steamer likes Cristian Martinez to do a nice job of eating innings, posting a 3.44 ERA in 52 innings pitched.  The rest of the bullpen looks to be pretty typical of a major league ‘pen.

First of all, it’s not all that telling that no recent World Series winner has struck out 1,200 times.  Strikeouts have basically been rising since the advent of Major League Baseball.  There are relatively few teams in the history of the game that struck out 1,200 times in a season, because the 1,200 strikeout season is a relatively new phenomenon.

It is not unheard of for teams to win the World Series and have a lot of strikeouts.  But if we look at total number of strikeouts, that is going to cloud our view, since even the best teams at avoiding strikeouts these days strikeout a lot more than teams of yesteryear.  The reason is because of changes in the game more than merely an acceptance of the strikeout and hitters not caring.

In today’s game we are more likely to see pitchers pitching in short spurts and going all out instead of pacing themselves.  It’s easier for a pitcher to strike batters out if he doesn’t have to pace himself as much as pitchers have in the past.

Another factor is player strength.  The mound distance hasn’t changed since pretty much baseball as we know it was invented.  The mound has been lowered and raised but essentially pitchers have been pitching at the same distance forever.  But human beings obviously get bigger, stronger, faster, quicker over time.  Bigger, stronger, faster, quicker humans mean faster pitches and faster pitches mean more strikeouts.  Another factor in players’ strength is better nutrition and better knowledge of medicine and the human body.

Along with player strength, there is also better pitches and more knowledge of the physics of pitching.  Through trail and error, pitchers have learned to throw pitches that twist, dart, sink and move more.

So strikeouts are more common just because the nature of the game has changed over time, not because of anything hitters are or aren’t doing differently.  In fact, one could argue that hitters are vastly more skilled, more fit, more trained, more athletic now than they were in, say, 1950.  But pitchers have more than kept up, at least in the ability to miss bats.

Another thing about DOB’s statement is that a few of the recent World Series champions weren’t all that impressive offensively.  They won because of pitching or because they played well over the stretch of a few weeks and those few weeks just happened to be in October/November.  What good is building a team that can make contact if the team can’t score enough runs to get them to the postseason?  Some of those teams with low strikeout totals were good offensive clubs and some of them were not.  There isn’t really a strong correlation.  The stronger correlation to scoring runs and overall offensive production is getting on base and slugging, regardless of how many times those teams made a particular type of out.

The point where DOB stops is 2005.  In 2004 the Boston Red Sox won the World Series with a great offense that led the league in strikeouts and strikeout rate.  The were first in runs scored, first in batting average, first in on-base percentage, first in slugging and third in OPS+ (with a 110 OPS+ to Cleveland and New York’s 111).  It’s clear that the Braves are trying to somewhat follow the Red Sox model for building offense.

The Braves probably won’t have a hitter the caliber of Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz but Frank Wren clearly has on-base and slugging in mind, strikeouts be damned.  This is a good thing.  Not necessarily that he doesn’t care at all about strikeouts.  Of course given a choice between two equally productive hitters of equal age and same position, you’ll take the one that strikes out less.  But the key is production.  Production in baseball is getting on base or avoiding outs, slugging and gaining bases.  The Braves aren’t the ’04 Red Sox but they should be solid at getting on base, slugging and also running the bases.

The 1927 Yankees are another great team and great offensive team, maybe the best team ever, and they struck out a lot for their time.  They led the majors in strikeouts and strikeout rate.  They struck out 610 times, which seems like very few in today’s game.  But the Cardinals were next with 511 strikeouts.

The ’27 Yankees struck out in 9.8 percent of their plate appearances.  The Cardinals were next at 8.7 percent, which is a fairly big margin.  In many ways the ’27 Yankees were the first great team that were built upon out-avoidance and power.  Some great teams strike out, some don’t.  But every great team that had a good offense was good at getting on base, slugging and gaining bases, regardless of how often or how many times they struck out or made any particular kind of out, for that matter.  It’s about how often a team makes outs, not how.

The 2013 Braves obviously aren’t the 1927 Yankees.  There probably isn’t another 1927 Yankees.  But contrary to the views of those who think the strikeout potential of this team is a big deal, we should take comfort in history showing that it is not.  It’s not a big deal, that is, as long as the Braves live up to their potential in getting on base, slugging and baserunning, and if the pitching staff does its part.

To read more about optimizing your lineup by The Book, see Sky Kalkman’s summary here:http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

The Braves’ optimal by “The Book” batting order:

#1 Jason Heyward

#2 Freddie Freeman

#3 Dan Uggla

#4 Justin Upton

#5 Brian McCann

#6 B.J. Upton

#7 Chris Johnson/Juan Francisco

#8 Andrelton Simmons

The #1, #2 and #4 hitters are the best, with Heyward leading off because of his on-base skills and Justin Upton hitting fourth, since he’s the best all-around hitter on the team with power.

If Uggla can bounce back in the homerun-power department, he’s perfect for the #3 spot in the order.  The #3 and #5 spots belong to the next tier of hitters not in the top three, with the #5 hitter providing more value with all-around hitting and the #3 hitter providing more value with homeruns.

“The Book” says to fill in the rest of the lineup in order of decreasing offensive talent with the speed guy hitting in front of singles hitters, if possible.  B.J. Upton is a nice #6 hitter who can do some things on the basepaths to increase the Braves’ scoring chances with lesser hitters like Chris Johnson, Juan Francisco and Andrelton Simmons at the plate.

Fredi Gonzalez has indicated that Andrelton Simmons will hit leadoff.  Simmons may be able to put up a high batting average and hit the ball with authority as he grows but so far in professional baseball he hasn’t shown much of an ability to do these things, and he doesn’t walk a whole lot.  What he’s shown so far in the pros doesn’t bode well for his chances to provide much from the leadoff spot.  But he is a tallish, thin guy in his early 20′s, so he could muscle up and learn a lot about hitting rather quickly.  Maybe it would be best to give him a chance to see if he can do the things that will lead to out-avoidance before the Braves insert him in to that leadoff role.

Obviously making out a batting order by “The Book” is going to raise eyebrows.  So it’s probably best, to avoid distraction and hullabaloo, to combine some of the concepts in “The Book” with a more traditional approach to making out a lineup card.  Taking this in to consideration, this would be my batting order:

#1 B.J. Upton

#2 Jason Heyward

#3 Freddie Freeman

#4 Justin Upton

#5 Brian McCann

#6 Dan Uggla

#7 Chris Johnson/Juan Francisco

#8 Andrelton Simmons

With this lineup the Braves have the prototypical speedy guy at the top of the order but a guy who is likely to provide more on-base skills than Simmons.  Heyward and Justin Upton, probably the most talented offensive threats on the team are in the key spots in the order.  McCann remains in the next most important spot, aside from leadoff, second or fourth.

The good news for this year’s Braves is there aren’t a lot of horrible batting-order configurations.  Even if Simmons leads off and doesn’t hit much, the #2-#6 or #2-#7 spots could provide plenty of offense.  That group of hitters has displayed plenty of offensive ability throughout their careers.  Not everything is likely to go right but a lot would have to go wrong for the Braves to completely tank offensively.  With their pitching staff, they should have enough offense to contend rather easily, barring major disasters.

Bourn has finally found a home in Cleveland (CLEVELAND?), carrying a price tag of 12 mil/year for four years. And I was just beginning to fantasize about having the best outfield in the game and the best fourth outfielder in the league. I know, I know, it was next to impossible. But I thought two Uptons was a fantasy, too.

In my opinion, the tribe overpaid. His defense, especially his ability to cover real estate in center, is a valuable commodity, but offensively is he anything better than league-standard? For a few weeks in the beginning of 2012, Bourn was our entire offense, but his second-half was a far cry from flawless. I remember a lot of weak pop flies. His best attribute may be his speed. He stole 103 bases in the last two years. Is that a rare enough tool in today’s game to warrant an eight-figure salary? Remember that speed fades with age and Bourn turned thirty in December.

Bourn is in his prime, likely nearing the end of it. He (and the remodeled Cleveland Indians) is set to have a quality season. He may well be touted as one of the best free-agent signings of the off-season. Michael will earn his 12 million in 2013. But 2014? That’s harder to say. And 2015? Doubtful. Here’s the kicker: the deal includes a vesting option for a fifth season, so all Bourn has to do is wear a vest and he gets another 12 million in 2017!

Wait. My sources are telling me that’s not how a vesting option works. In fact, he needs 550 plate appearances in 2016 to ensure a fifth season. In each of his two seasons with the Braves (one which we split him with Houston) he accrued over 700 plate appearances. So even if this statistic drops significantly over the next few years, he will still reach the goal. Unless Cleveland plugs him in the nine spot in the lineup and sits him for thirty games in 2016, he’ll probably get 12 million in 2017. That’s a total of sixty million bucks for two, maybe two and a half good seasons.

The whole deal just shows how fortunate the Braves are and how smart Frank Wren is that we were able to secure Justin Upton for three seasons just as he approaches the climax of his career, and for less than forty million. It’s been nice having Bourn in center for the last couple seasons, and I wish him success in Cleveland, but I couldn’t be happier with the outfield makeover.

Mark August 27^th on your calendar—it’s the beginning of a three-game home series with the Indians as our guests. I expect Bourn to get a big round of applause in his first plate appearance. Maybe I’ll sport my Bourn t-shirt as a token of appreciation.

First let me say that I’m not endorsing cheating.  On a base level, I’d hate to know that I worked really hard and someone else cheated their way to the same result or better than I achieved.  But I know that it happens more frequently than we’d like to acknowledge (I play golf…with men…so I see cheating all the time).  Charles Barkley changed my view of athletes when he said “I am not a role model”.  He’s right.  We didn’t chastise Kurt Cobain for not being a better role model for our kids.  We don’t criticize Alec Baldwin for being a jerk because he’s influencing a future generation of adults.  Hell, we don’t even care when politicians, our “leaders”, get caught in scandal.  So why do we care about people who participate in a glorified “Punt, Pass and Kick” competitions?

NBA players are notorious for smoking weed (for you older readers, weed is another term for marijuana cigarettes).  Should any player found to have “burned tree” be thrown off their team for good?  Should their achievements be wiped off the record books?  Look at the NFL and players like Lawrence Taylor.  He ADMITED to doing cocaine while he was a player…during the season (He’s also human trash IMO).  The national sports writers refer to him as a tortured soul with demons he just couldn’t control.  But they NEVER talk about keeping him out of the Hall of Fame.  Or wiping clean the record books of his achievements.  What if that coke helped him physically? Somehow helped him deal with pain, clear his mind or perform better?  How is that any different than Jose Canseco getting shot in the rear end with an injection?  Cocaine, Marijuana, Meth are all illegal just like PEDs.  So where’s the outrage?

What about something like Calais?  It’s a drug that helps erectile dysfunction (and evidently magically produces a waterfall and two bathtubs in your kitchen).  But I wonder if it helps performance?  I mean I KNOW it helps “performance”…well, not firsthand…I have this friend who….ANYWAY.  I wonder if it would help an athlete on the field in any tangible way.  What about 5-Hour Energy drink?  I know it would help me sky dive or help me produce “My debut album”.  But does it help players hit home runs, run faster or jump higher?  Pre game meals?  Some players will NOT switch what they eat before a game because they think it helps them perform better.  Some wear the same shirt under their uniform.  Players like Nomar Garciaparra do a silly pre-batter’s box ritual with their gloves, helmet, uniform, etc  EVERY time before they step to the plate.  Do we outlaw that?  If it gives him an edge, why should we let him do it? I know.  It’s a stretch from a chicken parm pre-game meal to a steroid injection, but it’s a way to illustrate, regardless how poorly, the question, “is all of this PED use really that bad?”

I think the reason people make such a big deal about abuses in Baseball but not other sports is because of the numbers.  Not just numbers, but THE NUMBERS.  715, 2632, 56, .406, 1.12, 4256 and alike.  If we’re not sure how true those numbers are, then how can we compare players?  Eras? Teams?  SABR nerds love the numbers.  And if the numbers aren’t totally valid, the analysis of said numbers means less.  Which means the foundation of their pastime religion is fundamentally flawed.  That’s why they don’t believe in things like “being clutch” or “team chemistry”.  They can’t be measured, so they can’t be true.  Just like loving your mother.  Since you can’t quantify how much you love your mom, you don’t really love her, right?  How silly.

At the end of the day, cheating and/or trying to get and edge, stay healthy or keep the mind focused is something every person will do to make sure they can continue to do what they do.  I guess cheating is like lying.  There are different levels.  And your outrage is based on where you draw the line.  Sports, like most entertainment, are my getaway from reality.  So I assume that things may not always be what they seem.  I guess I’ve seen enough to know that everyone is imperfect.  I’ve also seen enough to know I’m never getting the flu shot again.

For more of my shenanigans, follow me on Twitter at @YourDailyVinnie.  Thanks!

1. 1992-1993: The Greg Maddux signing.  The Braves were coming off back-to-back NL Pennants and seemed to be looking to make an impact signing, one way or the other, by acquiring Barry Bonds or Greg Maddux, both of whom were free agents.  They picked Maddux, he had his best seasons in Atlanta and the Braves eventually won the World Series with Mad Dog leading the staff.

2. 2012-2013: The Upton Brothers.  The Braves returned to the postseason in 2010, barely missed in 2011 and lost in MLB’s first-even NL one-game wild card round in 2012.  With Chipper, the last link to the 1990′s success, retiring after the 2012 season, they Braves needed an infusion of star power to go along with their young core of Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons.  They got it when they signed B.J. Upton and acquired Justin Upton in a trade.  It’s remarkable that a player with Justin’s talents was available on the trade market with three years left on his contract, at the age of 25.

3. 2001-2002: Gary Sheffield, Vinny Castilla and Chipper changes positions.  After years of regular-season dominance in the late 1990′s, the Braves dipped to 88 wins in 2001 with the likes of B.J. Surhoff, Quilvio Veras and Rico Brogna getting regular playing time.  Though they won the East, it looked like the end of the run was near, until they traded for Gary Sheffield, one of baseball’s premier bats.  They also brought back former farmhand Vinny Castilla and moved Chipper Jones to leftfield.  The Braves won 101 games in both the 2002 and 2003 seasons as Sheffield continued to rake in his two seasons in Atlanta.  Vinny Castilla, not so much.  Chipper was back as the regular thirdbaseman by mid-June of 2004.

4. 2004-2005: The Braves refocus on pitching by trading for Tim Hudson and moving Smoltz back to the rotation.  The Braves lost Sheffield after the 2003 season, then lost his replacement, J.D. Drew after just one season.  Glavine left after 2002 and Maddux was gone after 2003.  Time Warner purchased TBS and the Braves in 1996 and, without the influence of owner-fan Ted Turner at the helm, the Braves slowly began to lose their luster.  In 2004 they pieced together a division champion.  In 2004 they got creative, acquiring Tim Hudson from the A’s and moving John Smoltz from the closer’s role back to the rotation.  This held off the Braves’ slide for one more season, as they won the division in 2005.  They slipped out of contention for the next four seasons but Hudson remained on the staff long enough to see the franchise bounce back in 2010.  Now he’s seen as a leader of a young team hoping to take a step forward through the Upton-Heyward years.

Note I chose the Upton offseason ahead of the Sheffield offseason.  While Sheffield provided more star power, as he was established as one of the leagues dominant hitters and there are still questions about Justin Upton, I’m taking the Upton offseason.  Justin Upton is entering his prime, and may even be at least a year away, and the Braves have him for three seasons.  They only had Sheffield for two.  Plus with Sheffield the Braves basically acquired him, Vinny Castilla and shuffled some other pieces.  I’ll take B.J. Upton’s next few seasons over what Vinny Castilla brought to the Braves in the early 2000′s.  Then there are the young players already in place, like Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, even McCann isn’t exactly old.  Maybe the Braves won’t have the same success in any particular seasons as the 2002 or 2003 Braves.  But they seem to have a solid core for at least the next three or four years with a legitimate shot to win the division, if things break right, in any of those seasons.

However, Prado is entering his age 29 season, is coming off a career year, is arbitration eligible and is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season.  Players tend to peak in their late 20′s so it’s very possible we’ve seen the best of Prado.  Certainly we shouldn’t expect him to be much better.  And, while Prado is a very solid player, it’s not as if he’s consistently been an all-star caliber talent.  His career OPS+ is 109, which is good but nothing special when you consider a good portion of that production came in what are likely some of his peak seasons.  The Braves did well to sell high on Prado, coming off a career year when he is due for a noticeable raise.

But Prado, in addition to prospects like Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed, Zeke Spruill and Brandon Dreary, aren’t the type players a team trades for any mere upgrade.  The Braves traded that package for an all-star, perhaps MVP, talent in Justin Upton.

On the surface there doesn’t seem to be much difference in Justin Upton and Martin Prado.  And for the next season or two there honestly may not be a huge difference in these two players, in terms of overall value.  But because it seems he’s been around forever, we tend to forget how young Upton is and that there’s a very good chance we haven’t seen his best.  Plus the Braves have Upton through 2015.

Upton was the first overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft by the Diamondbacks and he reached the majors at age 19 so no one has ever questioned his talent and potential.  However, after playing parts of six seasons in the majors, he’s only displayed his talent and potential in a couple.  After six seasons, it seems the Diamondbacks grew tired of not winning with this supremely talented player and weren’t fond of his perceived laid-back style of play.  The perception is that he hasn’t lived up to his potential.

But what if Upton had come to the majors at, say, 22 and was entering his fourth season instead of coming up at 19 and entering his seventh?  We would probably be talking about potential a heck of a lot more.  Why is it that some think his experience makes his age not worth considering?  Honestly I’ve never seen a study on this issue but I would think players peak in their late 20′s, regardless of the age in which they first entered the majors.

Upton has posted a 117 OPS+ so far in the majors, in his age 19 to age 24 seasons.  Now that’s by no means indicative of a Hall of Fame career or anything.  And Upton may never win an MVP.  But a player with the talent to go first overall in the draft as a high school player and who has produced solidly against major league pitching before what is typically peak ages is a good player to have and to take a chance on over the next three seasons.

One concern some have is Upton’s home/road splits.  Upton is a career .307/.389/.548 hitter in Arizona’s hitter-friendly Chase Field but a career .250/.325/.406 hitter in all other parks.  This should not be a huge concern, mostly because he’s played plenty of road games in pitcher-friendly parks.  Most of his career road games came in Dodger Stadium.  Yes, he’s played the second-most in Coors Field (where his stats look just fine) but he’s played the third-most in San Francisco’s AT&T Park and the fourth-most in San Diego’s Petco Park.  He has over 160 plate appearances in all of these parks.  He has no more than 78 plate appearances in any other park.

Another concern about the trade is that the Braves will now strike out too much.  We should all know better by now that how often a team makes outs and how much extra-base power it has is much more important than how often it strikes out.  The Oakland A’s led the major in strikeouts in 2012.  While their offense wasn’t great, it was good enough and they won. The Washington Nationals finished fourth in the majors in strikeouts.  The teams with the fewest strikeouts in the majors: Kansas City, Minnesota and Cleveland.  In most cases strikeouts are no different than other outs.  In some cases, if given a choice, a strikeout is preferable to a groundball to keep the team out of the double-play.  Groundballs seem more indicative of a sorry offense but no one ever mentions whether a team grounds out too much.  We shouldn’t be obsessed over team strikeouts.

Yet another concern is the fact that the Braves still have no prototypical leadoff hitter.  It seems as though they may try Andrelton Simmons in the leadoff spot, something that no one should endorse.  However, batting order just doesn’t matter that much and plenty of teams throughout baseball history have scored runs and won without much production from the leadoff spot.  The Cincinnati Reds won last season with perhaps the worst leadoff hitter in baseball in Zack Cozart and his .262 OBP.  Did you know Jimmy Rollins had a .296 OBP (playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park) for the 2009 NL Pennant winning Philadelphia Phillies?  Having quality hitters is more important than where they hit or whether the leadoff hitter is prototypical or even productive.

This is a great trade for Wren and the Braves, not because it is guaranteed to make them a much better team.  Yes, there is a chance Justin Upton breaks out and is a legit MVP.  But it’s possible that this trade just keeps the Braves at 90-something wins this coming season.  The brilliance of this trade is that they were able to get a very talented player who is just entering his age 25 season and who is under contract through 2015 for a player coming off a career year who will get a raise then become a free agent.  From the Diamondbacks’ perspective, they do get quality prospects, and I don’t think the trade is as bad for them as some are making it out to be.  But from the Braves perspective, they needed a big-time right-handed outfield bat and were able to sell high on a quality player, no doubt, but a player they were likely going to have to overpay beyond 2013.

Baltimore has their silly Oriole on the cap.

The Atlanta Braves did the UNTHINKABLE…they also brought back one of their retro logos, the Screaming Brave.

This has sent sites like Uni Watch, Yahoo Sports and USA Today into a tizzy.  How DARE the Braves bring back such an offensive, racist logo in the 21^st Century?  Before we get into the nuance of that argument, let me tell you about another offensive logo.  One that FAR surpasses the Braves’ retro logo.  This depiction is one that almost every person in America sees every week or so.  Sometimes you can see it twice a week.  This logo is seen at children’s birthday parties, church functions, government hearings, business meetings, weddings, funerals and bat mitzvahs.  You see it in schools, hospitals and offices all around this great country of ours.  I speak of course, of the racially insensitive pizza box cover.

This atrocity has plagued our country for well over 75 years.  The depiction of some goofy, dim-witted, mustached Italian man on the boxes of MILLIONs of pizzas is uncomfortable at the minimum and is wholly and unequivocally offensive to any right minded person.  As someone of Italian decent, I take umbrage to every single one of these images.  These Italian men depicted in what I refer to as “pasta face” is so disturbing that I haven’t had pizza since 1996.  We, as Italians, have overcome so much in our rich history.  It took us years to overcome the stereo type of Italians as gangsters because of the Godfather movies.  Only to have The Sopranos destroy all of the hard work we had done on that front.  We convinced America that we were more than lust filled, vain, macho muscle heads only to have the Rocky movies persuade every Italy guy to nickname himself the “Italian Stallion”.  Yes, it’s true.  We love our mother’s cooking, we have all owned or knew someone who owned an I-ROC Z, Cutlass, Monte Carlo or Firebird, we love gold jewelry and we tend to spend a lot of time on our hair.  But the depiction of the typical Italian man as some bozo with a handle bar moustache running feverishly in a kitchen to make sure that some jerk gets his pizza on time is simply ludicrous.  We must ALL come together and protest every pizza box maker and pizzeria until they cave to our demand for a racially sensitive box that ALL Americans can agree to.  The voice of Italy will NOT be muted!!!

Ok, I hope we all see where I’m going with this.  Paul Lukas (Uni Watch), Kevin Kaduk (Yahoo Sports), Chris Chase (USA Today) and the like need to get a grip.  Yes, some things are offensive.  And yes, there are things out in the big wide world that we need to curtail.  The Braves retro logo isn’t one of them.  As some people read the above column, I’m sure they thought I was off my rocker.  I’m sure some knew I was illustrating how absurd this whole logo argument is.  But some may have said to themselves “yea, that box IS kinda offensive, someone should do something about it”.  You know what we should do about it…nothing.  Let the market decide if the pizza box needs changing and let the market decide if the Braves logo needs changing.  Unless your name is William Winthrop IV and you’re a 50 year old white guy, you most likely hear, see or read something you find offensive to your gender, race, religion, sexual origin or creed.  And I bet if you ask the 50 year old white guy, he’d say he’s getting hit too.  So please, can we all just agree that everything in the world is offensive to someone?  Because if that’s the case, we will just have to live and let live.  And by the way…I’m TOTALLY getting one of those hats and I just might order a pizza.

For more of my shenanigans, follow me on Twitter at @YourDailyVinnie.  Thanks!

I know I’m a bit old to be writing you, but what the hell, right?  You totally screwed all Braves fans on that “infield fly rule” incident back in September. So I figure you owe me as well as every single Braves fan in attendance at that game.  At minimum, you need to bring all of us new shoes, as the majority of us threw them on to the field around…let’s say…the 8^th inning (by the way, my wife also needs new shoes and the old guy who sat next to me needs a portable oxygen pump, if it’s not already too late).   I’ll admit, you came through with my playoff wish and a GREAT final year for Chipper, but in the future, can you do all of us a big favor and set us up with somebody OTHER than St. Louis?  Those creeps come to town and take everything we own, even the last can of Hoo Hash.  I’ve been a good boy this year.  I barely called Tommy Hanson a bum once a week and I’m pretty sure I wished a horrible stomach ailment on Dan Uggla only once or twice…well, maybe a lot.  But that’s not the real issue here.  “Good” is such a relative term anyway.  Saber-matricians have proven that to be considered “good”, one must only do “good” OR “non bad” deeds 45% of the time during the day on weekends against left handers.  And you don’t argue with those guys, just ask every single writer that voted for Miguel Cabrera.

Anyway, I’ve really been thinking about what I want for 2013.  You TOTALLY read my mind and got Tommy Hanson as far away from Atlanta as possible.  Also, well done with getting us BJ Upton. I only hope he’s not injured from being stuffed in a stocking near my fake fireplace.   And since you can’t make the baseball season only 3 weeks long, so Jose Constanza can make an impact on the team….here’s my wish list.

1. A really big bat – Even with Chipper in the lineup, we haven’t had that one REALLY feared bat in our lineup for some time.  That guy who when he comes to the plate, he’s one pitch away from putting the ball into one of the several parking lots around Turner Field.  We’ve had “feared hitters” like Uggla, Frenchy, Glaus, and McCann, but only because Braves fans fear multiple strike outs in one game.  Last year, McCann and Uggla popped up more that the Charlie-in-the-Box from the Island of Misfit Toys.
2. Craig Kimbrel’s health – For the love of Mrs. Claus, keep this kid healthy. He’s our Mariano Rivera.  He’s proven that with him getting those last three outs, the Braves will always be in the playoff hunt.
3. Ditch the Red Uniforms – You came up big when you gave us those slick cream colored unis last year.  But the red ones have GOT to go.  I know you’re a “red” kinda guy, but seriously.  They look like bowling uniforms.  Also, can you get us those old school blue/white uniforms with the feather on the side?  They’re almost as cool as hot chicks wearing Santa hats during the holidays.
4. Bring Eric Hinske back – I know his talent and ability to contribute to the team is greatly diminished, but I have a man crush on the guy and I don’t want him to leave.  You remember when you gave me that Atari game console and I also got Yar’s Revenge and I thought it was really bad ass?  Hinske is the adult version of Yar’s Revenge.  Please, can we keep him?
5. The Old Brian McCann – B-Mac HAS to be our team leader now.  But he can only fill that role if he is producing at a high level.  Only if he is the Brain MaCann of Christmas Past…or Spring Training Past…whatever.  His defense might suffer with David Ross’ departure, so we need Mac’s bat to counterbalance.  We need his bat to be consistent and we need it to produce runs.
6. Big $$$ lottery winnings – I figure I’d throw this in for giggles.  You never know.  Love ya Santa…mean it!
7. World Series – I know this wish will get shuffled with ALL the other teams’ wish for this too.  But seriously, WE Braves fans REALLY deserve it.  Sure, Kansas City could use a visit to the Fall Classic, but they have BBQ ribs to drown their sorrows.  The Mets fans would love it, but I hate them. So let them eat pizza or Chinese food or whatever they tout why NYC is so great.  As Southerners, we get dumped on ALL the time, let us have our moment in the sun.

In closing Santa, let me say how great you are.  You’re my IDOL!  You’re fat, your wear a beard and you work only once a year.  I have the first two down, I’m working on the third.  I don’t need all of the above wishes, just focus on #7…if I can only have one.  But understand I know where you live.  And I got A LOT of shoes I can still throw.

For more of my shenanigans, follow me on Twitter at @YourDailyVinnie.  Thanks!

Upton is not a great player.  For his career his offense has been basically a little above league average.  He’s never had an impressive hit tool.  He strikes out a good bit and his career batting average is .255.  On defense Upton rates as somewhere between serviceable and poor.  So what did the Rays and their smart front office see and what did the Braves see that caused them to hand Upton a fairly hefty (albeit reasonable), long-term contract?

For all Upton’s flaws, he’s been a league-average offensive player capable of playing centerfield, which has plenty of value if he can merely keep that up.  Since the start of the 2010 season, there simply aren’t that many centerfielders who have offered at least league-average offensive production and any value on defense.  If we use Fangraphs’ Weighted Runs Created Plus (which is a measure of a player’s overall offensive contributions, including baserunning, adjusted for league and park so that 100 is average) and Fangraphs’ fielding runs above average, we can get at least a decent idea how many centerfielders actually were above average on both sides of the ball.

Since 2010 Josh Hamilton, John Jay, Shane Victorino, Austin Jackson, Angel Pagan, Chris Young, Andres Torres, Coco Crisp and Upton have posted above 100 wRC+ and positive fielding runs above average.  That’s nine out of 34 qualified players Fangraphs lists in their centerfield rankings over that time frame.  Some of those guys are older (Victorino, Torres, Pagan, Crisp) and one is older and expensive (Hamilton).  That leaves Jay, Jackson, Young and Upton as the only fairly young, attractive options for teams over the next several seasons, among the players who have significant major league experience since the start of 2010 and who have proven something in centerfield.  Upton is by far the most talented of that group, in terms of raw tools.  Upton also happened to be the only one on the market.

How does one get that Upton is an above-average offensive player, given all his strikeouts and his low career batting average?  Well, we should all know by now that batting average isn’t everything.  Upton has power and draws walks at a decent rate.  He’s posted a career .336 on-base percentage and a career. 422 slugging percentage.  Those numbers are fairly solid, even if we don’t take in to account ballparks.  Upton’s home park up to this point was Tropicana Field in Tampa, which is a pitcher-friendly park.  Also, if we look at his career splits in different parks, he’s gotten significant playing time in fairly hitter-friendly parks where, naturally, his stats have taken a hit.  So looking at park-adjusted numbers, like OPS+ or wRC+, he’s been an above average run creator, not great but very solid for a player capable of manning centerfield in the majors, even if he’s not an outstanding fielder.

Then there is baserunning, which we could include in offense.  Upton is obviously fast.  He’s stolen 232 bases in his career and has only been caught 69 times.  He’s always been comfortably above average in baserunning runs, according to Fangraphs, which takes in to account multiple ways a player advances bases.

Did the Braves give him too much?  According to Fangraphs Upton was worth $15 million in 2012, $18.7 million in 2011 and $16.2 million in 2010, in terms of free agent dollars per wins in those seasons.  Given that the Braves will now have him for his age 28 through 32 seasons, $15 million a year is reasonable.

Was the signing based mostly on hoping Upton lives up to his potential?  Well, we’ve already established that Upton has already been a pretty solid player, probably a better player than his detractors give him credit for.  It’s true Upton’s had potential since he was the second pick overall in the 2002 amateur draft, and he’s not performed like the superstar many expected he would become after being drafted that high.  Certainly potential played a role in the Braves signing him but, again, he’s obviously already a solid player.  A lot of the potential is in the fact that he’s just entering his age 28 season next year, which is fairly young for a free agent.  At his age, with his slender, athletic frame, there isn’t too much risk of him absolutely falling off a cliff with his production over the length of his contract.  This isn’t Nate McLouth.  This is a supremely talented player who, while maybe hasn’t lived up to expectations as a former second overall pick, has done some things to prove himself in the majors.  If he lives up to second-overall-pick-type potential, that will be gravy.  But the Braves will be in fine shape if he more or less does what he’s done throughout his career.  If B.J. Upton has a typical B.J. Upton season and the rest of the front office and team does it’s part, the Braves will be in fine shape.

What do the Braves want with a so-so defensive centerfielder, with a career OPS+ of 66 (an OPS 34 percent below league-average after adjusting for ballparks), and with a history of a performance-enhancing drug suspension (in 2008) and a marijuana-possession arrest (after the 2011 season)?  Yes, this move was a waiver claim so the it costs the Braves virtually nothing.  But why bother?
Actually Jordan Schafer is exactly the type of player that is worth a gamble.  He’s displayed the skills to become at least a useful major leaguer, if not a player who could start in the majors.  In his age 20 season, he slugged .513 as he split time in Low-A Rome and High-A Myrtle Beach in 2007.  He slugged .471 during his age 21 season at Double-A Mississippi in 2008.  The Braves thought highly enough of him to make him the Opening Day centerfielder in 2009.  In spite of a low on-base percentage throughout his major-league career, he’s stolen 51 bases and has only been caught 14 times.  And while he’s never been a big-time walker he hasn’t been horrible at taking a walk. 
It’s hard not to compare Schafer to Michael Bourn.  Through his age 25 season Bourn had also played parts of three seasons in the big leagues and performed pretty awfully, posting a 62 OPS+, a .237/.299/.313 slash line.  Bourn walked 51 times in 658 plate appearances while Schafer walked 91 times in 893 plate appearances.  Schafer’s walk rate was actually a little more impressive. 

Of course similarity, even a slightly favorable comparison in some areas, does not mean Schafer will become the next Michael Bourn.  But there is a reason why scouts rely on comps.  Historical trends mean something.  At the very least it’s an indication that it’s worth taking a chance on Schafer considering the cost is virtually nothing but a roster spot.  If Schafer becomes a solid backup, it’s worth it.  And while he’s too old to predict that he’ll be a first-division centerfielder, he’s young enough to make improvements and possibly become at least a serviceable major league centerfielder at some point before he reaches free agency.  This is exactly the type of calculated risk a team with the Braves’ budget shouldn’t be ashamed to take.

It’s time to move on to the off-season, and the first order of business is the postseason awards.  Below are my picks.  I’ve saved the most controversial and discussion-worthy award for last.  May spirited discussion and debate distract us from our playoff frustrations. 

NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper, Nationals

Harper and Wade Miley, of the Diamondbacks, are the leading candidates.  Miley struck out 6.7 batters per 9 innings while walking fewer than 2 per 9 while starting 29 games for Arizona and posting an ERA of 3.33.  I give the edge to Harper.  At 19 he posted a slash line of .270/.340/.477 in 597 big league plate appearances, stole 18 bases and was only caught 6 times, and got significant playing time at a key position, centerfield.

I wouldn’t argue with anyone who selected either of these guys.  Both are deserving.  But if in looking for something to separate these two, Harper seems like he had the more impressive season, given his age and the fact that he was an everyday player.

AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout, Angels

There is no other candidate.  Trout should win this award unanimously.  There is not really much to say.  He put up an MVP-worthy year in his age 20 season.  More on that later.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

There are a number of solid candidates here.  The top two are Kershaw and RA Dickey.  I give the slight edge to Kershaw because his baserunners allowed stats were a little more impressive.  Kershaw threw slightly fewer innings but he had more strikeouts per 9, finishing just one behind Dickey in strikeout total.  It’s hard to argue against anyone who would put Johnny Cueto atop their ballot.  He had a very impressive year playing his home games in a hitter-friendly park, posting a 2.78 ERA. 

There is plenty of support for Craig Kimbrel (and Fernando Rodney in the American League).  They were obviously outstanding and pitched as well as anyone, on a per-inning basis.  However, I view the Cy Young in terms of overall pitcher value, so I have a hard time arguing for a guy who threw fewer than 75 innings and a lot fewer than what the top starters threw.  Perhaps it’s time Major League Baseball have a separate award for relievers that is taken more seriously than the Rolaids Relief Man.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Tigers

Verlander probably won’t get much support among the writers because he was fourth in wins with 17 and other very solid candidates won more.  But Verlander was the best pitcher in the league, in spite of win total.  He finished 2nd in ERA, 2nd in WHIP, led the league in strikeouts and innings and finished 2nd in strikeouts per 9.  David Price is your likely winner because he led the league in ERA and wins.  Price had a fantastic season but Verlander was better.  The stats that indicate what Verlander himself has some control over all point to Verlander as the best pitcher in the league.

NL MVP: Buster Posey, Giants

This is by far the most difficult choice.  There are six good candidates: Posey, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun, Kershaw, Yadier Molina and David Wright.  One could arrange them however they would like in their top six and I wouldn’t argue.  I’m leaning Posey.  He finished second to Joey Votto in OBP, fourth in slugging and played a demanding position, catcher. 

To nitpick, McCutchen finished slightly behind Posey in OBP and OPS, Braun doesn’t provide all that much defensive value and doesn’t play a demanding position, Kershaw was a pitcher so probably didn’t impact quite as many games, Molina wasn’t the same kind of offensive force, and David Wright just didn’t have quite as impressive a season and thirdbase is a little less demanding than catcher.  But let me emphasize that this is nitpicking and I couldn’t build a major case against any of these guys.

AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels

This is the big one, the one that has caused plenty of controversy in Interweb Land and among the baseball pundit class.  Frankly, I don’t think it’s all that close. Trout is the MVP over Miguel Cabrera.  At worst Trout was very slightly behind Cabrera in batting value.  Some metrics actually have Trout as the better hitter.  Trout was the better baserunner and it’s not close.  Trout was the better defensive player and it’s not close.

The arguments for Cabrera are essentially a) he won the Triple Crown and Trout did not and b) his team made the playoffs and Trout’s team did not.

The Triple Crown doesn’t do a great job measuring offensive value for the following reasons: batting average ignores walks and treats all hits the same and RBI are dependent on factors that have nothing to do with offensive value.  Remember when Jeff Francoeur drove in lots of runs without being a great hitter, in terms of avoiding outs and slugging?  RBI are influenced by opportunity more than skill.  The fact that Cabrera was so good that he was put in a position to have all those RBI opportunities indicates something.  But RBI alone don’t give us any kind of idea of a hitter’s offensive value.  The Triple Crown also completely ignores baserunning and defense, factors that should matter in player value.

Trout had a slightly higher OBP than Cabrera and posted a .564 SLG to Cabrera’s .606.  Baseball offense is about avoiding outs and gaining bases.  OBP measures out avoidance, SLG does a pretty good job of measuring base-advancement.  If Cabrera is ahead of Trout in these areas, it’s not by much.  You throw in that Trout stole 49 bases and was caught only 5 times and you throw in Trout’s centerfield defense compared to Cabrera’s thirdbase defense and it’s hard to argue against Trout.

As far as which player’s team made the playoffs, the Angels actually won one more game than the Tigers.  There is nothing to indicate this difference in win-loss record of the two teams was some sort of fluke.  And there is plenty of indication that the AL West was a tougher division.  Trout did more to ensure that the Angels made the playoffs.  They did not.  The fact that they did not has nothing to do with anything Mike Trout did or did not do. 

Also, it’s impossible for one player to lead his team to the playoffs.  There is just no way that one player can do that.  If that were the case, it’s hard to imagine Barry Bonds’ Giants failing to make the playoffs in 2001 and 2004, when he was over 150 percent better offensively than any player in the league in both seasons.  Cabrera got help from plenty of his teammates, including the best pitcher in the American League, as did Trout.  Their teammates shouldn’t factor in to how valuable they were as individual players.

The MVP is an individual award about a person’s worth as a baseball player.  This is what “value” means.  The definition is not subjective and it’s not an opinion.  That doesn’t mean it’s always clear-cut as to which player was most valuable (see the National League).  Trout had more worth as a player than Cabrera.  Cabrera will probably win the award but Trout is the clear-cut MVP.

I want to be five years old again, just beginning to really understand baseball in all its intricacies, and watching my Atlanta Braves win the ’95 World Series. And I want to be six years old again and hate all my neighborhood friends for being Yankees fans.

I want Chipper’s career to be bookended by World Series titles. I want youth and exuberance to be shown on an equal playing field with persistence and experience.

I want to look back at my preseason predictions and laugh, both at my ambitious foolishness and at the wildly unpredictable nature of baseball in general, this season in particular. Still, I want to be smug and point out that I correctly predicted 94 wins.

I want to tell my grandchildren about being in the Ted when Chipper hit a walk-off and how the whole place came alive.

I want to believe that passion and devotion outweigh fatigue. I want to believe that the Braves deserve to win, even if their opponents work just as hard or have just as beautiful stories.

I want to stand in the bleachers and hear “Crazy Train” played in the bottom of the first.

I want to say what if? What if he didn’t injure his knee in ’94? What if he didn’t tear his ACL in 2010? But asking what if doesn’t make anything better.

I want to ask Chipper if he plans on using that nifty surfboard.

Above all, I want more. Like a child that’s had enough—too much, perhaps—but can’t understand his limits, I want more. I’ll always want to see another at-bat, another homerun, another leaning barehanded throw to first. I want to see Chipper go toe-to-toe with inevitability and come out on top. I want the odds to pile up against him like an insurmountable tower, then crumble in his wake.

I don’t want to say goodbye. I want to say thank you. I want to Chop.

“To win [the manager of the year] award, a manager typically must do one of the following: win a lot more games than people expected (like the Padres’ Bud Black in 2010), overcome an unforeseen obstacle (like the Angels’ Mike Scioscia in 2009, after the death of pitcher Nick Adenhart) or win in historic fashion (like the Mariners’ Lou Piniella in 2001, when his team won 116 games).

“The National League winner will not easily fit into any of those models. None of the division leaders — Washington, Cincinnati and San Francisco — are terribly surprising. All three first-place managers — the Nationals’ Davey Johnson, the Reds’ Dusty Baker and the Giants’ Bruce Bochy — overcame the absence of significant players. And no team has won a historic number of games.

“The honor, this time, should go to Atlanta’s Fredi Gonzalez, who fumbled away a playoff spot last September but seems to have learned from his mistakes. Gonzalez has managed his bullpen much better this season, and he never allowed last September’s collapse to bleed into this season. Other teams that blew big September leads — like the 1964 Phillies, the 1978 Red Sox, the 1995 Angels, the 2007 Mets and the 2011 Red Sox — could not recover the next year. The Braves have, and Gonzalez deserves recognition.”

Believe it or not, Kepner may just be right about Fredi.  It’s unlikely the Braves would be out of contention with another manager other than Fredi.  They are a talented team that stayed healthy enough this season to earn a playoff spot.  But Fredi seemed to make pretty noticeable improvements from last season.

Managers should be like umpires, we should barely notice them during the course of a game.  If we notice an umpire, it probably means he’s done a horrible job.  If we notice a manager, it probably means he’s over-managed.  Last season Fredi’s decisions were way too noticeable.

For example, last season the Braves had the third-worst on-base percentage in the National League.  However, they tied for 6th in the league in sacrifice bunts.  So the few times they did get runners on base, they were wasting outs by bunting runners over.  A sacrifice bunt is almost never worth it essentially because conserving outs are more valuable to a team than gaining a base. Sometimes it’s excusable.  If the hitter is likely to make an out anyway, like a pitcher, perhaps bunting is understandable.  But considering how often Fredi called on his hitters to bunt last season, compared to how often they were on base, there is at least some compelling evidence that Fredi over-managed.

This season the Braves have the 7th-highest on-base percentage in the National League.  But they rank third from the bottom in sacrifice bunts.  The Braves are above average in runs scored per game and total runs scored but are below average in on-base plus slugging.  A major factor is that Fredi is letting his hitters hit and is not playing too much small ball and wasting outs that lead to quicker innings for opponents.  Last season four position players had at least four sacrifice bunts.  This season only two have as many as four sac bunts.

Fredi has also improved the way he fills out the batting order on his lineup card.  Last season Nate McLouth and Alex Gonzalez combined to start 38 games in the number two spot in the batting order.  Managers often botch the all-important number two spot in the order, not realizing it’s importance.  But McLouth and Gonzalez as number two hitters took this to another level.  It’s true that the Braves had a down offensive year in 2011 but that’s all the more reason to make sure you have a good hitter coming up early and often in that number two spot.

This season Martin Prado has been in the number two spot for 136 starts.  All of the other number two hitters combined have fewer starts there (21) than McLouth and Gonzalez did last season.  With the exception of Tyler Pastornicky for two games and Jose Constanza for a game, Fredi hasn’t really botched the number two spot as he did fairly regularly in 2011.

There is all this talk about Fredi saving the bullpen but the Braves played in a lot of close games last season.  Even if you weren’t a huge fan of his bullpen strategies, you at least have to acknowledge he went with his best relievers.  He’s getting a lot of credit this year for resting his key bullpen arms and keeping their innings down.  But his biggest accomplishments and areas of improvement from last season to the 2012 season are in his backing off from over-managing and his use of the number two spot in the batting order.

I wouldn’t call Fredi a progressive manager quite yet but his improvements this season are noticeable.  He still manages too often to convention and tradition, as do most major league managers, but at least he hasn’t gone well beyond other traditionalist managers in 2012, as he did in 2011.  Perhaps the voters should take a close look at Fredi Gonzalez for manager of the year, if for no other reason than he’s improved pretty dramatically in some key areas in which a manger can make an impact.

On September 3^rd, the Red Sox lead the AL Wildcard 9 games.  Yep…nine games.  On September 1^st, the Braves lead the NL Wildcard by 8.5 games.  At one point, the Sox had a 99.6% probability to get into the playoffs.  Then they lost 18 of their last 24 games.  The Braves looked like locks to make the playoffs as well in 2011.  Then THEY went 9-18 in September and…well…you guys know what happened.  That is where the differences in these two teams take “the fork in the road”.  The Red Sox upper management began trashing Terry Francona and then FIRED him.  Stories leaked out about alleged drug abuse by Francona.  The papers had article after article about the chicken and beer nonsense.  The TV had roundtables about what the Sox needed to do to change things as Red Sox Nation wringed its collective hands.  Their solution was to fire Francona, hired Bobby Valentine (that is a blog for another writer, but who DIDN’T see that not working out) and clean house with the trades of Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford before the end of the 2012 season.

Meanwhile, in little, insignificant, south of the Mason/Dixon line Atlanta…the Braves did nothing.  There were the stories about the collapse and some saber rattling about riding Fredi Gonzalez out on a rail.  The local radio talk shows (and I used the term “talk show” tongue and cheek, as most of them are horrible) babbled about another disappointing Braves season.  But Frank Wren and the Braves front office seemed to take a deep breath, blew it out, lit a lavender candle and DIDN’T overreact.  There wasn’t any major overhaul of the staff (though Greg Walker was shown the door last year) and the team didn’t change all too much.  Hell, they even KEPT Jack Wilson who made Nate McLouth look like Mike Schmidt offensively.

The Red Sox got rid of the manager that won them not one, but TWO World series after not winning for 80-something years.  The Braves kept their manager who hasn’t won bupkis yet as the skipper of America’s Team.  The Sox cleaned house by the beginning of September.  The Braves stayed the course and they just kept winning.  It’s easy to say now that the Braves did the right thing and the Red Sox had some MAJOR brain farts.  But sometimes taking a step back and reflecting is the best action plan.  To take a moment and assess how bad a problem really is.  Every so often, it’s in our best interest to think about the correct course of action and plan things out.  Over reaction is the poison to logical behavior and rational thought.  Knowing and playing the percentages usually gives you a favorable outcome.  And when it doesn’t, you can take solace in the fact that your logic was sound.  If the Red Sox were a smart organization, they would have thought of weddings when making their decisions concerning 2011 and their upcoming 2012 season.  What marriage usually turns out better?  The one that happens in Las Vegas over a drunken weekend?  Or a stable relationship with a long term plan for viability?  I’m hoping our Atlanta Braves is the marriage that dated for a while, takes financial advice from Dave Ramsey and works as partnership.  As for the Red Sox, what happens in Vegas…stays in Boston.

For more of my shenanigans, follow me on Twitter at @YourDailyVinnie.  Thanks!

I expected this team to make the playoffs. That’s been true since game one. But the road to October has been anything but expected.  They did it with Brandon Beachy on the mend. They did it despite Tommy Hanson completely forgetting how to win. (Remember when I predicted that he would win 20 this season? Good times.) They did it with Kris Medlen, a successful starter beyond all expectations. They did it with Uggla swinging blindfolded and McCann swinging with one shoulder. They did it on the back of a forty-year-old man who runs through stop signs and has stamina to leg out a leadoff double in the bottom of the ninth. They did it with a lot of hard work and a little good fortune.

Hopefully none of the guys woke up this morning too hung over, or blinded by champagne and light beer in the eye sockets, because there is still some pretty important baseball to be played in the regular season. The difference between winning the division and making the wildcard game is astronomical. Both teams playing in the wildcard game are immediately thrust onto the brink of elimination. On the other hand, the division winner gets a few days off and a five-game series to prove their worth, even though the first two of those five games will be on the road. For the Braves to conserve their energy through the rest of the regular season and focus on the postseason any time before the NL East title is out of reach would be a massive mistake. Fortunately, the players and the coaches understand this. There’s been no talk of giving up on the division, no mention of focusing solely on the wildcard game. Tuesday night’s celebration was well deserved, but don’t think for a minute that those guys don’t still have their eyes on the Nationals.

The schedule is a favorable one for sure: two more at home against the Marlins, the final home series against the Mets, and three on the road against the fading Pirates. Each game against teams with records below .500. The Nationals have three remaining games against the Cardinals (the current holders of the second wildcard spot), and five more games against Philadelphia. Even though the Phillies aren’t serious contenders this year, they’ve played like it in the second half of the season, including a 15-7 record so far in September. I’ll be rooting for them like a regular Philly Phanatic.

So hand me a mop and give me a hand with pulling down all this protective plastic in the clubhouse. There’s a lot more ball left to play. By the way, keep your eyes peeled for any unopened bottles of champagne. For souvenir purposes only, I promise.

Step two is a little more complicated: rest the slumping batters, but rest them at the right times. Here are the guys I’m thinking about specifically: Michael Bourn, Brian McCann, and Freddie Freeman. Considering the Braves current lead in the wild card race, there should be enough of a cushion in the regular season for each of these guys to get some rest before the big, colossal, humongous, impossible-to-overstate one-game playoff. And each guy would benefit from unique treatment.

Bourn: His current slump is ugly—there’s no better word for it. A stagnant hitter at the leadoff spot can really cripple a team’s offense, which is why it’s more important for Bourn to break the slump than anyone else. Luckily, it’s easier for speedy, contact hitters like Bourn to beat a slump than it is for more power-oriented batters. The reason being that speed can turn infield choppers into singles, or stretch outfield singles into doubles, whereas a slugger has to really find the sweet spot to hit a homerun, or at least the pitcher has to make a mistake. It would be best to rest Bourn very near the end of the season, perhaps once in each of the last two series (assuming the wild card race or NL East race doesn’t go down to the wire).

McCann: Brian almost looked like his old self on Tuesday night, batting two for four and driving in the tying runs in the ninth inning, but that’s not to say that he’s out of the woods. His shoulder injury isn’t something he can beat without significant time off, so he could use as much rest as possible. It won’t do us any good to plug him in the lineup every night if he continues to be a near automatic out. Unfortunately, Ross has chosen the worst time possible to forget how to swing the bat. I suppose it’s flood or draught at the catcher position, and we might have to suffer through a drought for the next couple weeks. If Brian gets enough rest to feel better and be productive in the post-season, the drought will be worth it.

Freeman: It looks like Freddie is on the verge of overcoming a tough September. In the Nationals series, he went 5 for 10 and looked like the top-notch hitter he has the potential to be. Lyle Overbay is available to give Freeman a few days off in the home stretch, but I hope that he gets consistent playing time in the last few series. Younger, inexperienced players sometimes fall out of good habits when they get too much time on the bench. Let Freddie swing his way into October.

If steps one and two don’t work, there’s always step three: extreme superstition and lots of praying.

Let me know what you think in the comments, or shout at me on Twittah @ThomasMDuncan.

Actually, I want to say thanks to AtlantaBaseballTalk for allowing me to take a small break while I grieved over the loss of Dan Uggla’s talent and Brian McCann’s ability to hit something other than a pop up. Over the last couple of months, I watched our beloved Braves have their ups and downs. Andrelton Simmons’ fantastic play, followed by his injury. Brandon Beachy’s fantastic play, followed by injury. Tommy Hanson’s fantastic…oh, wait, my bad. So on and so forth. The Braves have looked like “world beaters” one week and have smelled like expired “egg beaters” the next. And all the while, our Bravos have kept close to the Nationals and lived in the top spot in the wildcard. During this time of grief/observation, what has hit me is that old saying that may actually not apply anymore. “Good pitching beats good hitting any day”. We sure about that? Ask the Phillies how far they got during the short (and not so sweet) tenure of their dominating rotation of the last couple of years. And we ALL know how many (or how NOT many) titles the Braves won with their stellar rotation in the 1990s. Now, the “pitching greatness” du jour is the Tampa Bay Rays. The so-called experts say, “You don’t want to face the Rays in the playoffs” or “the LAST team you want to see is the Rays, with all that pitching”. Really? These are the same bozos that were AMAZED when Chris Carpenter blew away the post season last year. So what we really need to ask is, does great pitching beat great hitting OR does HOT pitching beat great hitting?

Think about “hot versus good”. Or even, “hot versus great”. Do we look at an attractive woman or man and say, “Wow…now that’s good”. No, we don’t. When you want to really compliment your significant other, saying “you look great, honey” is ok, but it doesn’t inspire. Tell them they’re HOT and wait for the reaction. I promise, you’ll like it. And so will they. Hot or streaky ALWAYS beats consistency and good. It’s all about the timing of said hotness or streakiness. Think of the ballpark. Think of the vendors at the ballpark. The ones selling hotdogs. What do they say?

HOT DOGS! Get your red hot HOT DOGS! Get ‘em while there HOT!

Not “get ‘em while they’re consistent”, “get ‘em during an extended timeframe where you can expect continuous quality”, “I’ve tasted one recently and they are pretty good on the whole”. You want them to be hot. It gets you excited to have a ballpark dog. It gives certain glamour to the dog itself (I know…I know, but roll with me on this). The Braves seem to be limping into the post season again offensively. But the pitching has been hot. Real hot. Kris Medlin has been as good as anybody in MLB. Mike Minor could actually demand a trade right now and wouldn’t be laughed out of Turner Field. Tim Hudson is solid as usual. Craig Kimbrel looks better than ever…when he gets a chance to close. Now if we could only fool Tommy Hanson into thinking the season is over and have him not come to the Ted to pitch…we’d be in business We’re winning a bunch of games where Atlanta is scoring only 1-2-3 runs. As one of my Twitter follower said the other night “another steak sauce score for the Braves = A-1” (because when you look at the score on TV, that’s how it’s listed in the upper left hand corner of the screen). If our pitching remains hot, we could go deep into October. So get your red hot Braves pitching and “relish” the 2012 season magic (couldn’t help myself).

For more of my shenanigans, follow me on Twitter at @YourDailyVinnie. Thanks!

Look at Atlanta’s last eight games (9/4—9/11). The offense scored a total of twenty runs. Remove the Saturday Mets game from the equation and it’s only nine runs in the remaining seven games, 1.29 runs per game. Yes, I realize that this is a small sample size, and that I might be overanalyzing some recent shortcomings, but for a while now, at least the last few weeks, minimal offense has felt like the rule more than the exception.

It’s easy to blame the problem on McCann and his ailing shoulder, as well as Uggla and his ailing season, but while they contribute to the problem they are not the entire source. In fact, in the last seven days, Uggla has the highest batting average (.346) of any everyday player on the team. In the same stretch, Bourn has only five hits, Chipper only three. Freddie Freeman was rested on Tuesday night, but in the six previous games he managed just two hits and one RBI. The Braves have been able to survive the struggles of McCann and Uggla throughout the season, but how long can we stay afloat if the core of our lineup—Bourn, Freeman, Chipper—continue to underperform at the plate?

Maybe part of the problem is simply luck. The Braves batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over the last seven days is just .285, significantly lower than the season average of .297. Lyle Overbay’s near homerun turned out by a terrific catch on Tuesday night comes to mind. Another part of the problem is surely fatigue. It’s a long season, and being tired and sore can’t make hitting any easier. A little rest for the starters should help, along with the return of Simmons, who looked good in his first game back on Tuesday.

Defense wins championships. In baseball, that saying is sometimes translated to pitching wins championships. But even the best pitchers can’t win on a consistent basis with less than two runs of support per game. Stellar pitching from the likes of Hudson, Medlen, and Maholm may be enough to carry the Braves into the post-season, but to make a deep playoff run the bats must come alive. Let’s hope the offense can reappear as suddenly as it disappeared.

I’ve been a proponent of the Braves exploring a trade for Uggla. I don’t think they would have to get all that much back for it to be worth their while, although it needs to be something significant. I know that’s rather vague, but what would make a trade worthwhile may depend on the Braves’ budget situation going in to next season and what they plan to do with the rest of the roster.

At any rate, even with Uggla’s struggles, benching him, at least against right-handed pitching, is probably not the way to go. On the season Uggla has a 91 OPS+ and got there with a .336 on-base percentage. Not great but not awful for a second baseman. With Uggla sitting, you have to figure Martin Prado will get the bulk of the playing time at second base, which of course is just fine. But that means Reed Johnson plays left field.

Johnson is basically league-average offensively, with a career 97 OPS+, which isn’t all that good for a left fielder. He’s just fine against left-handed pitching (.313/.369/.465 in his career) but he’s merely serviceable against right-handers (.267/.324/.382). If Johnson sits against righties, maybe the Braves go with Jose Constanza, Tyler Pastornicky (at second base) or Jeff Baker (at second base or left field). Neither of those options look all that much better than even a struggling Uggla.

Sitting Uggla against left-handed pitchers is fine. Uggla has actually hit a little worse, throughout his career, against lefties. The on-base is virtually equal but he’s slugged .482 against righties to .431 against lefties. Reed Johnson has been quite good against lefties, as has Jeff Baker (.297/.345/.503). So the roster is set up nicely to give the offense a boost, against lefties, by benching Uggla.

It’s fine to bet that Uggla isn’t the player he once was. In almost two full seasons with the Braves he’s had one good half-a-season. It seems pretty clear that Uggla is on the decline. It’s fine to bet that Reed Johnson or Jeff Baker will be better than Uggla against left-handed pitching over the course of the next month or so. But I’m not so sure the Braves should bet that Reed Johnson, Jeff Baker, Jose Constanza or Tyler Pastornicky are better than Uggla, against right-handed pitchers over the next month or so.

Admittedly we aren’t privy to all the information. Perhaps Uggla and the Braves are hiding an injury or something else that’s going on behind the scenes and that, based on that information, it is indeed a good bet that those other guys will be better than Uggla, in most situations. However, based on the information we have, the Braves should probably stick it out with Uggla in the majority of games for the remainder of the season.

Now Simmons is rehabbing in the minors and it looks like he should be ready to rejoin the Braves in time for the upcoming series against the Mets. His return has me thinking about his initial stint with the Braves, when he was called up to replace Pastornicky. Everyone knew about his reputation as a solid defender, but hardly anyone expected him to hit the way he did. In just 33 games Simmons collected more hits and extra-base hits than Janish earned in 48 games. And the numbers can’t wholly explain his effect on the Braves. Suddenly the lineup felt solid from top to bottom, and the improved defense kept pitch counts low for starters, made for better-rested relievers.

I underestimated Andrelton’s ability when he was first joining the team, and I imagine I was not the only one. Now Simmons will be welcomed back with inflated expectations. He’ll be expected to hit just as well as he did before the injury, to tighten up the lineup and cure our offensive woes. Without a question, the lineup needs jolt, but it’s not realistic to think Simmons will solve all our problems.

Simmons is recovering from a hand injury, and that can make things complicated. A sore or stiff thumb could potentially alter his grip on the bat, or even his swing. In the best-case scenario, his injury is one hundred percent healed and doesn’t affect his game play at all. In the worst-case scenario, he’s bothered by an aching thumb and sputters on offense. The organization knows how important Simmons is to our team—for this season and the future—so I’m sure he’ll be used with caution.

I expect Simmons to be an important part of the team as we fight to hold onto a playoff spot. He’s a natural in the field, and I don’t see his time off affecting that part of his game, at least not significantly. He’ll swing the bat better than Janish, but it might take some time before he finds a groove. And Soft J will be available if Simmons needs a day of rest. Andrelton should be our shortstop for several years to come, so I’m willing to be patient—as long as he helps put us in the post-season.

Feel free to follow me or send me a Tweet, @ThomasMDuncan.

Overbay was solid in 45 games with Arizona this season, hitting .292 with a .367 on-base and .448 slugging.  He wasn’t good in 2011 and 2007 but he’s been at least an above league average hitter every other season since 2004.  His usefulness is limited.  He’s exclusively a first baseman and always has been.  But he’s a useful bench bat, nonetheless.  He could very well replace Eric Hinske come October.  It’s unlikely he would be any worse.  He’s at .276/.370/.455 against right-handed pitchers for his career.

Baker has mostly played second base in his career since coming up with the Rocking in 2005.  But he’s also played third, first and the corner-outfield spots.  Baker’s overall numbers don’t stand out (93 OPS+ for his career, a little worse than league average).  But Baker kills lefties.  He has a .298 average with a .346 on-base and a .505 slugging.  Aside from Reed Johnson and David Ross (whom Fredi is reluctant to use when he’s his back-up catcher) are the only good right-handed options off the bench.  The Braves have been using Tyler Pastornicky in many a pinch-hitting opportunities.  Baker is probably one of the best lefty-killing bench players in all of baseball.

Defensively Overbay may spell Freeman in a game or two but that’s about all the time he’ll see in the field.  Baker could play second.  He could play third, if Chipper needs a day off and they don’t want to start Francisco.  He could go to one of the corner-outfield spots when Prado moves to the infield or when Prado or Heyward need a break.  Mostly I expect both guys to be pinch-hitters.  With only a month left in the season, it’s hard to imagine the Braves giving rest to their regulars.

Frank Wren once again shows that he’s a master at roster constructing, finding a way to get players he needs, even with the Braves’ budget constraints.  Even though both Baker and Overbay will not see any playing time with the Braves until September, both could be on the postseason roster.  In fact, I would be kind of shocked if neither are.  Overbay would certainly seem like a better option to play the Hinske role than Eric Hinske.  And Baker could be on the roster if they go with one fewer pitcher in the postseason.  Neither is a big-time addition but they definitely improve one of the few weak spots for the Braves.

Here’s the Atlanta catching situation without McCann: thirty-five year old David Ross is a good fill-in when McCann needs rest, but he is not a quality starting catcher. His contract expires after this season, but we could sign him inexpensively as a backup. Christian Bethancourt may be the Braves catcher of the future, but most agree that he isn’t ready for the big leagues. Bethancourt needs further development as a hitter, especially when it comes to plate discipline. Also, he’s scheduled to miss the remainder of this season with a hand injury. Several quality catchers will be available as free agents this offseason, but none worth the millions it would cost for a rental while Bethancourt develops.

It’s worth noting that McCann’s role for the Braves has changed from this season to last. For years now he’s been our major source of power, but we now have other players to fill that role—Freeman, Heyward, and even (gulp) Juan Francisco. Even with Uggla’s dismal play this year, we don’t have to slide McCann in the cleanup slot every game.

I won’t argue that McCann is a top-tier defensive catcher, but I will say that his presence behind the plate is important to the team. Consider his report with Tim Hudson, the most reliable member of our rotation. They both joined the Braves in 2005 and have played in over two hundred games together. Hudson is a professional and can pitch with any serviceable catcher, but his familiarity with McCann, and vice versa, is certainly an asset to the team.

Brian’s current 2012 slash line: .234/.307/.411. Is that worth twelve million dollars to a team without a ton of expendable resources? No. But with Brian McCann, the Braves would be buying more than his offense. That twelve million would pay for a familiar presence and leading voice in the clubhouse, a catcher comfortable with the Braves pitching rotation, and more time to develop the catcher of the future. Besides, given time to recover from his nagging shoulder injury in the offseason, there’s a very good chance that McCann will improve his game and once again be a big offensive asset for our team in 2013.

Atlanta is third in the National League in Baseball Reference’s Simple Rating System, which takes in to account run differential and strength of schedule.  They are also third in Baseball Prospectus’ Third-Order Wins, another measure of a team based on underlying performance and schedule.  After this weekend’s Giants series, the Braves will just have one series left against a division leader, Washington in mid-September.  They do have one more series against Pittsburgh, a team hanging in the wild card race, though their underlying performance metrics indicate they are a mediocre team.  For the most part, the Braves face non-contenders.

The Braves are also in better shape with their roster than they have been the past two seasons.  Injuries almost cost them a playoff berth in 2010.  Injuries played a big part in last season’s collapse.  But Frank Wren and company seemed to have their bases covered this year.  The starting pitching staff is six deep.  The bullpen is well rested, thanks largely to the offensive bounce-back and avoiding too many close games.

There are quality back-ups at all the key positions.  So unless several key players all go down at the same time, the team is in good shape to cover themselves in case of injuries, God forbid.  Brian McCann isn’t fully healthy but David Ross has actually been quite a good hitter this season on the whole.  Reed Johnson would do an adequate job in the outfield, if forced in to a starting role.  Juan Francisco has slightly improved his awful approach enough to have some value if he needs to start.  Andrelton Simmons is expected back in September so they’ll have two quality defensive shortstops.  The Braves signed Lyle Overbay as a left-handed bat off the bench (Hinske looks done).

Anything can happen, as we saw last year.  But this team is both talented and well-covered for the issues that have hurt them late the previous two seasons.  Even with their recent skid, they are still in the driver’s seat.  As they say, momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher…and the next day’s opponent.  After the Giants series, the opponents start to look inferior.

This is what I love about baseball: organizations can build great teams by throwing money at every big name player available, but building an club through good scouting, drafting, smart economical management, and player development is just as viable of a method for success. The Nationals have been careful with Strasburg, maybe even overprotective, but he is paying dividends for the team. Washington also managed to sign Gio Gonzalaez to a five-year deal (with options for a sixth and seventh) for forty-two million dollars. And we can’t forget about the young offense talent in Harper, Espinosa, Bernadina, etc. Not only have they established a great team for 2012, the Nationals have the foundation in place to become a solid franchise, a force to be reckoned with for years to come. For all Braves fans complaining about Liberty Media limiting the payroll (myself included), notice that the 2012 payroll for the Nationals is about two million less than the Braves 2012 payroll.

We’ve now lost the most pivotal series of the season to the Nats, making the NL East championship all but out of reach, but it’s just as important now as ever that we beat them in the remaining games. For years now we’ve seen our team struggle against the Phillies, and many people have suggested that there is some sort of mental block going on, that we couldn’t beat Philadelphia because they got in our heads. Is it possible that the same thing could happen now with the Nationals? Coming in to Wednesday night’s matchup, we are 4-10 against Washington this season and we haven’t won a single series against them.

Losing to Washington on a consistent basis makes it easy to forget how good our team really is. Our outfield is incredible, maybe even the best in the league on both sides of the ball. Our bullpen is solid, better than Washington’s in my opinion, and our starting rotation has been improving all season long. There’s no reason why we shouldn’t be able to compete with every team. Uggla is the only big hole I see in the lineup, and at this point in the season it is too late to do anything with him but just wait it out and hope he gets hot.

We only have one series against the Nats remaining on the schedule, and we have to win that series if we want any hope going in to the post season. Because the way things are shaping up, even if we hold on to our wildcard spot and manage to win the one-game playoff, we will have to face Washington next. How can we have any confidence against the Nats in the playoffs when they dominate us in the regular season? I’m not a big believer in superstition or momentum, but confidence truly is a factor in determining a team’s success. For the Braves, winning the final games against Washington would go a long way towards making them true contenders in October.

As to the second question of whether they can afford not to re-sign him, I think clearly they can.  O’Brien seems to be asking whether the Braves can afford to be without such an offensive catalyst and outstanding centerfielder, especially considering there are no centerfield options in the minors to take his place.  I do think they can find a decent centerfielder outside the organization that wouldn’t cause them to take too big a hit.

As far as Bourn and the Braves’ leadoff hitter, consider what the Atlanta offenses did from 2006 to 2010, the years between Rafael Furcal (the last “prototypical” leadoff hitter) and Michael Bourn.  They went with players like Marcus Giles, Kelly Johnson, Gregor Blanco, Nate McLouth and Martin Prado leading the team in games at the leadoff spot during those years.  But during that span they were third in the National League in runs scored, behind only the Phillies and the Rockies, teams that play in pretty extreme hitters’ parks and, in the case of the Phillies, a team that had one of the better offenses of the last 10-15 years.  If we include last season, a down year for the Braves’ offense, a season without Bourn for most of it and with a sub par Bourn for the final two months, the Braves still were fourth in the National League in runs scored, from 2006-2011.

If your idea of a prototypical leadoff hitter is a guy with great speed that can make things happen on the basepaths, certainly lacking one of those types did not seem to cost the Braves much from 2006-2010.  They had some up and down years from their leadoff hitters in those seasons but still managed to be one of the top 3-4 offenses in the league over that span.  There are leadoff options currently in house.  Prado has done it before.  Heyward would be a solid choice.

If they don’t re-sign Bourn they do have to find a centerfielder and a leftfielder (as Prado is expected to move to thirdbase), and make up the deficit created by losing Bourn and Chipper Jones, both among their best players in 2012.  But that deficit may not be as hard to make up as it seems on the surface.  For starters, hopefully Mike Minor will continue his improvement next season, and hopefully guys like McCann and Uggla (assuming he’s still here) will bounce back at least to some degree.  Then there is Paul Maholm for a whole season, who should at least provide something close to league-average innings in the rotation.  With those things and the acquisition of at least solid major league outfielders for leftfield and center, I believe the gap would nearly close.

Baseball Reference estimates Chipper and Bourn at 7.4 Wins Above Replacement so far this season, so that’s what the Braves would lose.  With improvements at catcher and secondbase, with at least a solid centerfielder and at least a solid leftfielder, with improvements in the rotation from Mike Minor and possibly others on the pitching staff, with Paul Maholm in the rotation for a whole season and with the possibility of gaining more value at shortstop with a full season of Andrelton Simmons, all of that should eat in to the approximately 8 wins the Braves might lose with Chipper and Bourn moving on.

The Braves’ front office should not necessarily be looking to replace a “prototypical” leadoff hitter, if they lose Bourn.  I suspect the Braves’ front office realizes this.  They seem smart enough to realize the quality of the players matters more than worrying about acquiring players that would allow them to set up some sort of prototypical batting order.  I trust the front office to go out and get the best player available that fits the budget and/or that they can trade for without setting the franchise back to fill open positions, batting order be damned.

The Braves season has been one of peaks and valleys, winning streaks and painful slides. The starting rotation has been completely transformed since April, and the lineup has seen plenty of adjustments. We’ve had four different starting shortstops, three different catchers, and it seems Martin Prado has played every position, including batboy and grounds crew. Recently Fredi’s been going with a pretty consistent batting order, but for much of the season it felt like he filled in the lineup card by throwing darts at the roster. Freeman, McCann, and Heyward: they’ve all been huge offense assets, but also experienced serious slumps. Even Bourn went through a short dry spell or two. The bullpen has suffered several injuries, most notably the injury to Kris Medlen’s sense of direction. Is he supposed to start? Relieve? It’s a guessing game with no right answer!

Kimbrel has been the mainstay for our club. I’m never sure who Fredi plans on bringing out for the sixth, or seventh, or eighth, but if we’ve got a lead going into the ninth, I feel at ease knowing we have an excellent chance at winning the game. The image of Craig’s hanging right arm is synonymous in my mind with a win.

While I’d put Bourn ahead of Kimbrel for our team’s most valuable player, the Craig Machine has been our most valuable pitcher, not just reliever. Of course he’s pitched far fewer innings than our starters, but he’s appeared in twice as many games (44) as Hanson and Minor (22 each), who are tied for the most starts on the team. His 2.4 WAR is higher than any Braves pitcher.

Relievers hardly ever get the honor of the Cy Young Award. No reliever has won it since Eric Gagne in 2003. I suppose it’s true that a closer can only get the job done if he’s set up by the starter and middle relievers, as well as supported with runs from the offense, but to be able to get the final outs of a close game with consistency is an invaluable skill. If the Braves had lost just a quarter of the games Kimbrel has saved so far this season, their record would be 59-57, behind Pittsburgh, LA, San Fran, and St. Louis in the wildcard race.

Several starting pitchers are worthy of the honors, such as RA Dickey, perhaps Gio Gonzalez, but no starter is truly having an outstanding season. If Kimbrel, as well as Chapman and Hanrahan, finish the season strong and help carry their teams into the playoffs, the Baseball Writers Association of America will have a difficult time denying a closer the Cy Young.

Every Braves regular that has been in the lineup all season (so that excludes Tyler Pastornicky and Paul Janish) has an OPS+ of 96 or better.  They are getting plenty of offense from their outfield, the corner spots, catcher and even Dan Uggla hasn’t been as bad on the season as it seems.  Uggla has an OPS+ on the season of 96, which actually is not that bad for a second baseman, even if we expected more.  Also Juan Francisco has been a pleasant surprise relative to his early season production.  Francisco’s OPS+ is 103.  In the playoffs (let’s hope mentioning the p word doesn’t jinx the Braves), he probably is the number one left-handed pinch-hitting option.

The Braves definitely have a good offense but I think they aren’t quite as good as it might seem on the surface because they really have just a couple of guys who have produced at least 15 percent above average (according to OPS+): Chipper Jones, Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman (and David Ross, if you want to count semi-regulars).  The Braves are more of a well-balanced attack that doesn’t have a group of stud hitters, which is sort of what we might have expected before the season started.

The Braves’ bullpen has been fantastic, as we expected it would be, even with the troubles of Jonny Venters.  Actually Venters has come around and has an ERA+ of 107 with a strikeout rate of 12.1.  The starting staff has been a mixed bag.  Of course Beachy was awesome before he got hurt.  Hudson has been good.  We all know about Mike Minor’s ups and downs.  Randall Delgado had his moments but he’s back in the minors.  Kris Medlen has been consistently solid no matter where the Braves put him.

But the pitcher that leads the Braves in innings and has been better than many of us probably realize is Tommy Hanson.  Hanson by no means has been great.  When he was coming up through the minors, he looked like he might be a #2 with perhaps #1 upside.  But he’s been inconsistent.  He always gives up runs, sometimes in bunches, which is why I think we tend to underrate him.  He hasn’t had a start this season in which he has given up no runs.  However, looking at his season on the whole, he’s given the Braves decent innings, which has more value that we sometimes realize.  There are very few stud pitchers around and few consistently good #2 types.  We all wish Hanson could be more but he’s given the Braves something, probably more than it seems.  He’s clearly not the team’s best pitcher but he’s sort of been the guy to keep the starting staff afloat this season.

For all that was written and talked about concerning the Braves’ pitching issues, with Minor turning it around and the trade for Paul Maholm, the Braves are just a solid, deep team. For what they lack in star power, they make up for it in solid pieces at multiple spots on the roster.  As I mentioned in my power rankings last week, Frank Wren is a master of not wasting roster spots.  He’s been an underrated GM because the Braves have a very set payroll limit that they don’t seem to be allowed to go over.  So Wren and the Braves have been unable to acquire loads of star talent.  Under Wren the Braves have acquired players in bulk who have provided comfortably-above-replacement-level value.  On Wren’s Braves over the last 2-3 years there is hardly ever more than one, maybe two roster spots where players could be interchanged for fringe-level talent.

However, there’s also a good chance that the Braves will wind up with one of the two NL wildcard spots, which means we just may face a one-game playoff. That’s scary, right? Our entire season could be decided by a single game. Of course we practically experienced that last season when we failed to win the final game of the season and missed the wildcard by one game. Were we to make that one-game playoff and lose, would it be any better than missing out on the playoffs last year? I don’t think so. Playing a solid regular season is something to take pride in, by being knocked out of the post-season after just a single game would be such a letdown.

On the other hand, winning the one-game playoff could be a big advantage for the following playoff series, because the winners of the wild card games will have home-field advantage for the first two games of the next series. Advancing in the playoffs after a single victory could give the team a momentum going into the division series, assuming you believe in the effects of momentum in baseball.

The NL wildcard race is a close one. Assuming the Braves don’t overtake the Nationals in the East, I believe there are five teams that we could end up facing in the one-game playoff.

Pittsburg: they currently hold the second wild card position and are only a few games back of Cincinnati. I think the Reds have what it takes to hold on to the division, but Pittsburg could play well enough to earn a wildcard berth. If available, AJ Burnett would be the starter. He’s got playoff experience to go along with his fourteen wins so far this year. Their offense, led by Andrew McCutchen, is not terrible, but they do rank in the bottom third in the MLB for average, OBP, and OPS. We haven’t played Pittsburgh since April when we took two out of three from them, including a win against Burnett who gave up three walks and two earned runs.

St. Louis: the Cards are behind Pittsburgh in the NL Central, but that could change in a flash. If we get matched up against St. Louis, I believe they would throw Kyle Lohse, who has a sub 3 ERA in 2012 and a 12-2 record. Cardinal relievers, however, have given up 136 runs this season. As a team, their offense leads the MLB in average and OBP, and rank third in OPS. Only the Texas Rangers have scored more runs in 2012. We’ve had the Cardinals’ number this season, taking five out of the six games against them, including a series sweep.

San Francisco: with the Dodgers close on their tails, I fully expect the Giants to lose their lead in the NL West by the end of the season. If we face San Fran in the one-game playoff, it’s not clear who would take the mound. It could be Lincecum, Matt Cain, or Madison Bumgarner. Even Barry Zito isn’t out of the question. Their rotation is deep, and their starter would likely depend on who is feeling healthiest and most rested. Their offense isn’t exactly formidable, but they do rank just below or above the Braves in most major offensive categories. We have just one win against the Giants in three games so far this season, but we play another series against them later this month. The last time we faced the Giants in the playoffs, the 2010 NLDS, is mostly bad memories.

Los Angeles: a few trade-deadline acquisitions really improved the quality of the Los Angeles club. The lineup is packed with offensive potential: Victorino, Kemp, Ethier, Hanley Ramirez, and James Loney. Clayton Kershaw may be the Dodgers’ best option for the one-game playoff. His 2.88 ERA leads LA starters, but he has accumulated six losses in his twenty-three games. We split a four-game series against the Dodgers back in April, and we play them again next weekend.

Arizona: the D-Backs will have to make up 6.5 games to fend off the other wildcard contenders, but I’m not counting them out. None of their pitchers have been stellar. Wade Miley leads the rotation with 12 wins and an ERA below 3.00. Following his 21-win season in 2011, Ian Kennedy is sporting an ERA above 4.00 and just a 10-8 record. Still, he might get the call if Arizona winds up in the one-game playoff. The D-Back offense ranks in the top ten for average, OBP, and OPS. Twice this year we’ve almost swept the D-Backs only to lose the series finale, including a loss to Ian Kennedy.

Out of these five teams, I feel most confident in our chances against Pittsburgh and Arizona. Because of their recent offensive editions, I believe the Dodgers would be the most difficult team to beat in a one-game playoff.

By the way, we’d have to throw Tim Hudson, right? What if he’s not available? Hanson? Ben Sheets? Our rotation has become so unpredictable.

I see why the MLB decided to add an extra wildcard team and the one-game playoff. It generates immediate excitement, like skipping the first four games of a playoff series and going right into the rubber match. Whether you are for or against this playoff system, you can’t deny that the one-game playoffs will be exciting.

SI.com does power ranking based on team Wins Above Replacement.  This is pretty interesting.  It is basically ranking teams on underlying performance instead of going on record, eyeballing rosters or recent performance.  At least there is a definitive criteria for ranking teams and it’s useful in terms of determining which teams are most talented and which teams may be over-performing or under-performing.

Another interesting way to do power rankings would be to rank the teams according to what they would do if, starting today, they played a 162-game schedule and everyone played the same schedule.  I’m not concerned with one team playing in a stronger or a weaker division and therefore playing a weaker schedule than another.  I’m not just looking at underlying performance or record up to this point of the season.  Now is as good a time as any to do this kind of power ranking because the trade deadline has past and the make-up of teams going into the stretch run and the playoffs are more or less set.

Basically I’m looking at every team’s roster today, pretending every team is in the same division and playing the same schedule, and predicting what the standings would look like at the end of a 162-game season that started immediately.   I’m assuming reasonable health and luck for every team, assuming luck evens out (which admittedly never happens throughout a real baseball season).  I am paying attention to current injuries teams are dealing with but I’m assuming players with minor injuries come back to normal health fairly soon in our imaginary season.  If teams are dealing with major injuries, I will take that in to account, especially if players are likely to miss a good chunk of the next six months, if the season started today.  Also, I’m basically assuming no trades.  A team is playing with their current roster and organizational depth for the next 162 games.

To some this up in one sentence: Who has the best roster right now?  Here are my rankings, broken down in to tiers, with comments on each tier:

Top Tier

1. New York Yankees

2. Texas Rangers

3. Los Angeles Angels

The Yankees clearly look like the best team in baseball.  They have baseball’s best record right now in a very strong division.  With their payroll and front office, it’s hard for any team to match their roster depth.  The Rangers are a close second.  The only thing that keeps them from the top spot is the age of some of their top players, particularly Josh Hamilton.  The Angels have superior starting pitching depth to any team in the game, with the addition of Zack Greinke.  But there are weak spots on the left side of their infield, their bullpen and who knows if Torii Hunter is really as good as he’s been so far in 2012, at this stage of his career.

Second-Tier
4. Boston Red Sox

5. Cincinnati Reds

6. St. Louis Cardinals

7. Atlanta Braves
8. Tampa Bay Rays
9. Chicago White Sox
10. Washington Nationals
11. Oakland Athletics
12. Detroit Tigers
13. Philadelphia Phillies

This is a big group of teams that I think are legitimate division title contenders if the season started today.  They don’t quite have the numerous stud players of the top tier but they are all solid.  You probably notice the last-place Phillies in this tier.  I do think the Phillies’ talent is a lot better than its 2012 record, mostly because of their pitching staff.  They’ve gotten essentially nothing from Howard and Utley this season.  While I don’t think they are near the players they once were, I do think they can still contribute.  Halladay is a similar story.  I put the Braves 7th, the third-best team in the National League.  I do think the Braves have a better roster than the Nationals, though the Nationals lead the NL East.  I believe the Nationals are getting flukey offensive and back-end-of-the-rotation performances.  Everything that could go right for them has.  But I think the Braves are fundamentally the better team, especially with the added depth of Maholm and Reed Johnson.  Frank Wren is a master of not wasting roster spots.  Though the Braves lack stud talent in its prime (mostly because of Liberty Media and a suppressed payroll), they have few glaring weak spots.

Third Tier
14. Toronto Blue Jays
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
16. San Francisco Giants
17. Los Angeles Dodgers
18. Pittsburgh Pirates
19. Miami Marlins
20. New York Mets

The teams that could grab a wild card spot, if everything breaks right for them, makeup this group.  They have definite noticeable weak spots but they are also strong enough to finish above .500.  These teams need some luck and some over-their-heads performances (or they simply need to play in a weak NL West) in order to take control of a playoff spot.

Fourth Tier
21. Seattle Mariners
22. Baltimore Orioles
23. San Diego Padres
24. Milwaukee Brewers
25. Cleveland Indians

These are the teams that could finish .500, if lots of things go their way but are more likely to fall short.  However, they have the talent to avoid the cellar in a typical division.  It would take extreme flukes for these teams to jump into contention but they aren’t the absolute worst teams in the game.

Last Tier
26. Kansas City Royals
27. Minnesota Twins
28. Colorado Rockies
29. Chicago Cubs
30. Houston Astros

These are the teams that don’t really have much hope for .500 without something extreme happening.  These are teams in the rebuilding stages or should be.  The Royals and Twins and possibly the Rockies stand out as teams that could jump in to the fourth tier but aren’t quite there.  The Royals just haven’t developed the pitching to make the jump.  The Twins are trying to win without high-strikeout pitchers, which is tough at the major league level.  The Rockies’ pitching staff is full of guys who are either very young or not very good.  If pressed, we could separate the Cubs and Astros from the rest of baseball.  They are definitely in the rebuilding stages, a process that accelerated at the trade deadline.  However fans of those franchises have hope.  Smart front offices are running those teams and they’ve loaded up on prospect depth.

With Hanson being placed on the 15-day DL for a lower back strain, the Braves have practically no other option than to make Medlen a member of the starting rotation, at least temporarily. While Hanson’s nagging injury is troubling news, I’m excited for Medlen to get a few starts and prove that he deserves to take the hill every five games. He gave up just one earned run over five innings and performed very efficiently, throwing just fifty-seven pitches. Medlen allowed only four hits and one walk to go along with his three strikeouts. If he continues to pitch this way while Hanson is out, I can’t imagine the Braves deciding to make him a spot starter or send him back to the bullpen.

Suddenly we’ve got six serviceable starting pitchers (once Hanson returns). Hudson is his usual self, Sheets has given us more than anyone expected, and even Mike Minor has begun to turn his season around with four consecutive quality starts. In July, he posted a 1.98 ERA and allowed only six earned runs. Given Medlen’s debut as a starter and his appearances as a reliever this season, I fully expect him to continue to pitch effectively. And then we have our newest acquisition, Paul Maholm. He’s been having a great season with the Cubs (which is no simple task), especially of late, earning five wins and no losses in his last seven starts.

It will be interesting to see who is assigned the spot starter role once Hanson returns from the DL. Barring another injury, someone will have to be excluded from the regular rotation. The probability of a six-man rotation is miniscule. I view these next couple weeks as a competition between Minor, Maholm, and Medlen (the three M’s?) for the bottom spots in the rotation.

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, I now feel like we dodged a bullet by not trading for Dempster. If you asked me about the possibility of trading for Dempster a few weeks ago, I would have called it pivotal for the team’s success this season. Now the idea of renting him for half a season seems ludicrous. Instead we got Maholm for Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman (which, as a package even, I value as lower than Delgado). And Maholm comes with an option for next year, an affordable one at under seven million should we decide to hold on to him. We even got Reed Johnson out of the deal, a useful fourth outfielder and pinch hitter. Having him available as a bat off the bench makes me a bit more confident in the offense going into the last two months of the regular season.

Looks like the front office made a smart move for once. Of course they tried to get Dempster, but he rejected the deal. In any case, we are shaping up to be real contenders.

What are the Braves to do?  Their closer, a pitcher with only 39 innings pitched on the season, leads the team in WAR (Brandon Beachy still leads in Baseball Reference’s version but Kimbrel is second, which also reveals the state of the starting staff).  Ben Sheets has been a pleasant surprise but a) he’s an injury risk and b) the Braves can’t rely on Sheets alone to ease their pitching issues.

It seems they will continue to try hard for Dempster, probably their best choice at this point.  But they could do something creative, something like what the Cardinals did last season.  They could load up on solid arms that may have some deficiencies here and there but are capable of blowing hitters away.  I’m thinking lesser names than guys like Greinke and Dempster that may not require the Braves to give up any more than maybe one of the top young pitching prospects or defensive whiz catcher Christian Bethancourt.

Last year the Cardinals traded one expendable but talented young player in Colby Rasmus and several filler pieces, veteran relievers, for Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepczynski and Corey Patterson.  I was skeptical of this trade and still am.  Maybe I’m stubborn, but I still think the Cardinals could end up regretting giving up on Rasmus at such a young age.  But it’s hard to argue with the fact that this trade helped them win the Wild Card and eventually the World Series.

If the Braves can possibly use that as a model, they should.  Maybe package Randall Delgado in with the Anthony Vavaro, Cory Gearrin types, possibly some of the other veteran fillers toiling in the minors that could fill out a major league bullpen on a bad team.  Like the Blue Jays were willing to take the talented Rasmus plus fringe-level pitchers for some of their more solid arms, teams may be willing to take some fringe-type pitchers from the Braves for the opportunity to take a talented, young player like Randall Delgado.  At worst maybe the have to throw in another solid prospect or two.

If they could get Dempster, why not make the package to the Cubs a little more impressive and ask for Shawn Camp and James Russell, unsung relievers capable of getting big outs.  If not Dempster, ask for Paul Maholm instead.  They could turn to the Mariners and old buddy Kevin Millwood, who is having an okay season, and also ask for Tom Wilhelmsen, Steve Delebar and Brandon League.  It may even be worth taking a chance on the disappointing Luke Hochevar if the Royals would be willing to throw in Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares.

The Braves could also try to pry away Reed Johnson or Jeff Baker from the Cubs, Casper Wells from the Mariners or Jeff Francoeur from the Royals (kidding).

There are quite a few bad teams with plenty of solid arms and bench bats that could be packaged together to help the Braves for short burst and match-ups.  It seems this is the quickest, easiest way to improve a team without giving up a ton.  I’m sure I’m not the first to think of this.  The front office probably has something more brilliant up its sleeve, I hope, considering they’re a major league front office.  I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Braves go this route.  It’s hard to imagine Greinke providing much more value than say three or four players, if they are the right players, even if they lack the name recognition.

I couldn’t help but wonder about instant replay’s place in baseball. As it is, instant replay can only be used in the MLB to determine boundary home run calls (fair/foul, in/out, fan interference). Some people are adamantly for further uses of instant replay, while others are just as strongly opposed to it. I’m near the fence on this issue, but definitely on the opposed side.

I understand the argument for instant replay. You’re sitting at home, watching your favorite team. It’s a tie ball game in the bottom of the eight, and your team’s leadoff man is on first. On the first pitch, he makes a move for second, but gets thrown out. Before you throw your remote across the room, you watch the replay, which clearly shows the runner was safe. It wasn’t even close! How did that blind, confused, ignorant man ever get a job as an umpire? If he could just step into the clubhouse, watch the replay, and reverse the call, all would be right in the world. Right?

I know exactly how it feels to be in that situation. How many times has Michael Bourn been called out incorrectly this season? I lost count early on. If instant replay could be used to correct judgment calls on the base paths, Armando Galarraga would have a perfect game under his belt, and Jim Joyce would get a lot less hate mail.

While I’m all for the right call being made, I don’t think it’s the most important issue here. There are some really good reasons not to use instant replay. First, as mentioned above in reference to the NBA, instant replay extends game time. Baseball is the only major sport without a defined time limit, so in theory the games could last for days (and sometimes they do). Every time instant replay is used, it pauses and extends the length of the game. Some games already last three and a half or four hours. Our (and by our, I mean the human race) attention spans are dwindling, so I think it would be bad for the growth of the sport for the games to get any longer.

Next, there’s the ‘slippery slope’ argument. If instant replay is expanded, where do we draw the line for using technology in baseball? Boston manager Bobby Valentine has made the argument for automated ball and strike calls. Now, Bobby Valentine has done and said some pretty questionable things this season, but he doesn’t seem to be alone in his stance. LA first basemen James Loney has predicted the use of electronic umpires in the future. Can you imagine a game called entirely by computers? Could we even call it baseball?

Here’s my last point: human error should be a part of the game. Take the human error out of the game, and you can forget about controversy. Forget about furious arguments and ejections. How could a manager argue if every call is proved correct? Also, human error might make the game flawed, but it doesn’t flaw the game in a way that gives any one team an advantage. Human error is fair. Take, for example, the first two games of this week’s series against the Marlins, both won by just one run, and both featuring some very close, controversial calls. Perhaps with an expanded use of instant replay, Jason Heyward is called safe at first in the ninth and the Braves rally to win. On the other hand, in the second game, maybe the instant replay proves that Ruggiano to be safe on that close play at the plate. Every team in the league has to deal with bad calls, and every team gets a break here and there.

Baseball should be a reflection of life. No one is perfect. People make mistakes. Sometimes you do everything right and you still can’t win. An overuse of instant replay could suck the life out of the game. I’ll take the wildcard factor of umpiring over the cut and dry clarity of instant replay any day.

Shanks: “Braves were 35-39 after that win in BALT in 04. Went 61-27 the rest of the way and won the NL East. It was that pivotal. A repeat tonight?”

Me: “how do we know some win a few games after the Charles Thomas game wasn’t the turning point in ’04? You’re just assuming.”

Shanks: “Braves were 35-39 after that win in BALT in 04. Went 61-27 the rest of the way and won the NL East. It was that pivotal. A repeat tonight?”

Me: “Also what about all the other times in baseball history that good teams comeback and don’t end up in the playoffs? Ignored?”

Shanks: “Well I know what the team members believed cause that’s what they said – and I believe it too”

Me: “Belief is not always rational. Why didn’t the Halladay comeback create momentum? After Conrad game, Braves barely made playoffs”

Shanks: “Belief is not always rational. Why didn’t the Halladay comeback create momentum? — You must be a stathead.”

Me: “I’m a logic head. So the Braves don’t have to be as good at baseball because now they have momentum?”

Shanks: ” I’m a logic head. So the Braves don’t have to be as good at baseball because now they have momentum? – hahahahaha”

Me: “Seriously it will be a mistake if Braves think this win deflates the Nats, and they are counting on momentum.”

Now, I certainly enjoyed Friday night’s game.  It was outstanding.  It was fun.  There aren’t enough adjectives to describe how great it was.  I truly wish that win was enough to carry the Braves for the rest of the season and to the NL East crown or just in to the postseason.  But I think it’s just silly and irrational to assign some sort of deeper meaning to it and make those sorts of assumptions.

I don’t mean to discount the possibility that this win will put a little pep in the Braves’ step and do a little to help them play better.  Call me naive but I believe there are things throughout a baseball season that may give all teams a little extra motivation, so I don’t know that this will help the Braves any more than something else may help the teams with which they are in the playoff hunt.

The playoff races will come down to talent, execution, timing and luck.  If momentum or confidence plays a role, it will be a minor role and may not play a role at all.  Again, call me naive but these are major league players and they are the best of the best professional baseball players in the world.  Teams scout these players in high school and college and put them through a rigorous filter called the minor leagues.  For the most part, these players are going to go out every game and play more or less to the best of their abilities.  Sure, there are going to be ups and downs and I don’t discount that certain things are going to get in the way of that or that certain things will provide a little extra motivation.  But I believe that’s true for every single team in the big leagues.  So by the end of the season, the teams with the most talent, the teams that stay healthy, the teams that execute, the teams that get their hits and outs and the right times and the teams that have some luck on their side are the ones that win.  I don’t think momentum or pivotal wins play a huge role in which teams make the postseason.

If momentum mattered, how did it work out for that 1987 Braves team, the last Braves team to come back from 9 runs down?  That team finished 69-92,20.5 games back.  You may say, “well, that team wasn’t any good?” which is my point exactly.  Talent is what matters most.  The division title or the Braves making the playoffs will come down to how the Braves play baseball from here on out.  It will not come down to whether they carried momentum from this game throughout the rest of the season.

I’m sure we can find plenty similar examples throughout the history of baseball of teams that had big comeback wins, teams much better than the 1987 Braves, that had big comeback wins and those wins failed to provide the momentum necessary for those teams to make the playoffs.  But our biases cause us to remember the times when big comeback wins and playoff berths come in the same season with the same team a lot more than we remember comeback wins from lesser teams.  We start with the narrative that big comebacks lead to momentum and work backwards instead of realizing that in actuality each game is a separate event and that the quality of a team is more important than how they win games.

In a way if we claim that the momentum of this game is what will carry the Braves to the postseason, we are insulting the players.  The players playing good baseball isn’t good enough.  They needed a big comeback win and the momentum from it in order to reach the postseason.  Their pure baseball skills aren’t quite good enough.  They can’t motivate themselves on their own.  It’s almost as if they lack the professionalism and self-motivation.  They need something extra.

Also it would be a mistake for the Braves to think that the Nationals are deflated by this win and that’s what will carry the Braves to the division title instead of playing good baseball.  I don’t think anyone truly believes this.  But this is basically what you are saying when you suggest Friday night’s win could create enough momentum to carry the Braves to the division title and the Nationals to second place.  How about the possibility that the deflating loss could motivate the Nationals as much as the win motivates the Braves?

In a week or so, we’ll forget all the talk about momentum and that win being a turning point in the Braves’ season.  We’ll see this as another game in a long, 162-game marathon.  We’ll realize if the Braves win the NL East or make the playoffs it will be because they played well throughout the season, they were talented, they executed, good things happened enough at the right time and they got some luck.  It won’t be because they needed or got more motivation than some other teams thanks to one game amazing game in July.

Twitter: @PayneBall

Remember about this time last season when Uggla was in the middle of his 33-game hitting streak, a continuous top story on ESPN, and we were all forgiving him for that lousy start? This year, he’s failed to turn around yet another lousy start, and he’s beginning to look like a black hole in the lineup. His average dropped to .221 with an 0-3 performance against the Giants on Tuesday night, but he blended in with the rest of the team, which combined for only five hits.

And I’ve noticed a big difference in Jason Heyward’s play this year, at the dish and in the field. He’s hitting with more consistency, making adjustments to avoid dry spells, and hustling on every play.

While Kimbrel has remained just as dominant as he was in 2011 (I’m pretty sure he’s a pitching robot, by the way), Venters has struggled mightily. I’m not convinced that the source of all his troubles is an elbow injury. Jonny’s seemed off his game for essentially the entire season. This time last season, I had total confidence in Venters, and this year he’s closer to a total mystery.

The trade deadline is approaching, and with every passing day it looks like the Braves are less likely to make any big move to bolster our bullpen or lineup. It’s not like there are not options in the market, especially for pitchers. The possibility of making a move for Greinke has been the most talked about, and perhaps it’s the most likely, but there are other pitchers out there that could be a good fit for the Braves. One in particular that catches my attention is Ryan Dempster. Yes, he’s on the older side at 35, but he’s having a career best season and leading the bigs in ERA. Yes, he only has a 5-3 record, but he depends on the Cubs offense for run support. And, most importantly, the Cubs are reportedly willing to absorb some of his remaining salary ($14-million).

Dempster isn’t a guaranteed ace, but we don’t need an ace, we need a pitcher to solidify the middle of the rotation. I hope the organization puts a lot of effort toward signing him, or toward signing another available pitcher. I’m just not incredibly confident about our chances to make the playoffs and a deep playoff run with JJ, Minor, and Ben Sheets. Sheets looked great in his first start, but that’s one start. He’s still somewhat of an unknown. And JJ looked good after being called back up, until Tuesday night’s sad outing.

At the end of July last season, we were poised to take the division and my mind was on just how many playoff games we could win. Well, we all know what happened last season (sorry to bring it up). Could it have been different if we dealt a pitcher (say, Derek Lowe, or JJ) in an attempt to improve our rotation? There were obviously a lot of factors that went in to the collapse, but weak pitching stands out to me. Come September of 2011, I felt like the braves were trying to hang on by their fingertips. I don’t want the second-half of the 2012 season to be like that. I want to see and aggressive, all-out charge towards the post-season. Now is not the time to be complacent.

Given that Uggla is locked up through age 35 and, while his contract isn’t awful, it isn’t exactly a bargain, it may be time this offseason to explore an Uggla trade before his production declines more.  The Braves clearly have a couple of rather significant holes to fill for 2013 in centerfield and leftfield/thirdbase, plus they may want to upgrade the pitching staff, given the issues this season and the fact that Brandon Beachy will be out until towards the end of the 2013 season.

Even if Uggla isn’t quite the player he once was, the Braves could still sell to another team that they would likely get decent offensive production out of guy capable of playing secondbase.  Even if he slips to something below league-average in offensive production, the fact that he’s at least serviceable as a secondbaseman means he would still have value.  Plus there is always the potential that he will provide plenty of power from the secondbase position.

Just exploring trading Uggla would likely send red flags to other teams.  Teams may think, “Why would the Braves send away a player they signed to a long-term deal not too long ago?  Clearly they lack confidence in him.”  For this reason along with his age and his lack of defensive value, the Braves may have to eat a bit of his contract.  So it would be sort of similar to the Derek Lowe trade, though hopefully not that extreme.  I would think the Braves could get a better return for Uggla, even with the signs that he’s not quite the same player he ones was, simply because there is still the promise that he can be a 20-30-homer-a-year secondbaseman.

I doubt an Uggla trade would give the Braves equal value in terms of player quality.  Sure, they could probably get something of value.  But I think the move would be more budget related, similar to the Lowe deal, although hopefully the Braves could get a little more for Uggla than they got for Lowe, either in the way of more salary relief or a better player/better players or a little of both.

The downside to trading Uggla, besides the Braves likely would just be doing it for salary relief and wouldn’t get equal player value in return, is that the Braves would lose a secondbaseman with tremendous offensive potential.  Obviously secondbasemen capable of 30-homerun seasons are hard to find, even if they aren’t outstanding hitters or great at getting on base.  This is also what would make Uggla attractive to other teams and make it possible to shed his contract, if need be.

The Braves probably don’t have to shed salary by trading a player on their current roster.  They have some salary coming off the books this offseason and could likely fill their holes without making moves.  But trading Uggla could very well allow them to fill those holes more effectively.  It may allow them to get a quality bat in left and a solid centerfielder, perhaps it would even increase their chances to re-sign Michael Bourn.  Also, it may free up some salary space if they want to go after a good starting pitcher, say, if they were to make a run for Zack Greinke.  They may take a hit at secondbase but it could open up the possibilities elsewhere and end up being a net gain.

Whether it would be wise to explore an Uggla trade likely depends on the Braves’ options to fill the holes at centerfield and leftfield/thirdbase and whether they feel they need a significant upgrade in the pitching staff.  They probably do not know all of the options just yet as things could change rapidly in the trade market and free agent market between now and Spring Training 2013.  I’m not necessarily for or against trading Uggla just for the sake of trading him.  He’s likely to provide plenty of value over the length of his contract.  But Uggla is the one player on the roster locked up until his mid-30′s who has a somewhat expensive deal.  He’s probably the first place to look if the Braves think they could be better off taking a bit of a hit at second for the overall health of the Whether it would be wise to explore an Uggla trade likely depends on the Braves’ options to fill the holes at centerfield and leftfield/thirdbase and whether they feel they need a significant upgrade in the pitching staff.  They probably do not know all of the options just yet as things could change rapidly in the trade market and free agent market between now and Spring Training 2013.  I’m not necessarily for or against trading Uggla just for the sake of trading him.  He’s likely to provide plenty of value over the length of his contract.  But Uggla is the one player on the roster locked up until his mid-30′s who has a somewhat expensive deal.  He’s probably the first place to look if the Braves think they could be better off taking a bit of a hit at second for the overall health of the team.

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By the eighth inning, when the Craig Machine took the mound, I knew the NL had the game in the bag (I mean, how many runs could the AL possibly score against Kimbrel, Chapman, Hanrahan, and Papelbon?) I was happy to see the NL get the win for Chipper’s final All-Star game, but much more excited for home field advantage in the World Series. For years I’ve been adamantly against the All-Star game deciding home field advantage (you know, when the AL went on that seven-year winning streak) but it’s hard to be against a rule when it can give your team a big advantage. During the game last night, Joe Buck said that six of the last nine teams with home field advantage in the World Series walked away champs.

That got me thinking about Atlanta’s chances to make a playoff run this season. Plenty of unknowns will determine the outcome of our second half, such as how long we have to play without Simmons and how his absence affects our lineup and fielding percentage. And Will Uggla turn it around at some point, or is this just a Mendoza-line season for him? Ultimately, I believe our validity as a post-season threat comes down to pitching. As the season began, our offense looked much more fragile than the pitching, but the opposite has turned out to be true. With Beachy being out for the season and more, and Minor’s colossal struggles, as well as JJ’s ups and downs, it’s clear that we need to add to our rotation to be real contenders in the NL.

Already, the team has made an under-the-radar move in the pitching department by signing Ben Sheets. I have to reconcile the ideas I’ve attached to his name (dominant Milwaukee ace in the mid 2000’s) with his current reality (thirty-four-year-old who left the game after elbow surgery and hasn’t played professionally in two years). When I look closely at the move, I get all kinds of concerns. First, his fastball clocks in the low 90’s. Without great location and good off-speed pitches to balance him out, low 90’s are batting practice for MLB batters. Second, what kind of physical shape is he in, having not played for a couple years? Even if he pitches four scoreless innings a game, then has to get pulled in the fifth or sixth, that’s going to put a lot of stress on our bullpen, which isn’t exactly bulletproof.

Sheets made two starts with Double-A Mississippi. In the first appearance, he gave up four runs over five innings, but all the runs came in the first two innings (shaking off the rust?) and he then retired ten straight batters. In his second start, on Monday, he pitched six innings and gave up just one unearned run. Obviously, Double-A is not the Majors, but I look at both of those games as good signs.

According to CBS Sports Sheets will start for the Braves on Sunday against the Mets. This might seem like rushing his comeback, but I think it’s a good idea. We need to know what Sheets has to offer as soon as possible, because his impact on our rotation will likely influence how much effort the front office puts toward pursuing other available pitchers before the July 31^st deadline, such as Zack Greinke.

We didn’t have to give anything up any talent to sign Sheets, so we’re making a pretty safe bet. If he crumbles in his first couple starts, we can send him back to the minors and focus on acquiring someone else before the deadline. It’s not realistic to expect a prime form Ben Sheets, but I don’t think it’s ridiculous to expect some solid performances. In the absolute best-case scenario, Sheets proves a reliable guy in the rotation (at least for the rest of this season) and we make a move for another quality starter. We don’t have to replace both Minor and Delgado to be playoff contenders, but it would certainly improve our chances.

Let me know what you think of Sheets or Atlanta’s chances in the post-season in the comments, or send me a tweet @ThomasMDuncan.

For his career Greinke has struck out 8 batters per 9 innings pitched, walked only 2.3 per 9 innings and given up 0.3 homeruns per 9 innings.  His career ERA+ is 116.  His career pitching Wins Above Replacement ranks 20th among active pitchers.  There isn’t a younger pitcher ranked higher on the active list.  The only pitchers in the top 25 younger than Greinke are Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain.  If Greinke is not a legit ace, he’s pretty close.

There are whispers that Greinke wants to pitch for the Braves and some rumors that the Braves have some interest.  But it would likely be tough for the Braves to give up the prospects required to get Greinke if they are only guaranteed 2-3 months of his services.

Honestly I don’t know how much a team may know behind the scenes, as far as whether a player is likely to sign with their team.  There are obviously rules against negotiating with a player while he’s playing for another team and I’m sure no team would risk any sort of severe punishment for getting in to serious talks with an opposing player’s agent.  Plus, it would ruin the player’s leverage in contract negotiations if he made his intentions known that he really wants to play for a particular team.

But perhaps the Braves realize Greinke has some interest in playing for them and strongly suspect he would sign with them at a reasonable cost.  If such stuff goes on behind the scenes, teams and players likely would keep it under wraps to a very strong degree to avoid getting anyone in trouble.  So we will never know it that kind of stuff goes on.

One option for the Braves, if they want Greinke, is to ask the commissioner for a time frame to negotiate an extension once a trade is agreed upon.  This happened with Alex Rodriguez and the Boston Red Sox during the 2003-04 off-season (before the players’ union wouldn’t allow him to restructure his contract and he was traded to the Yankees) but I can’t remember this happening with an in-season trade.  With a star player like Greinke, it’s possible that the commissioner would give the Braves permission to negotiate but, again, I honestly don’t know if there is any precedent for this, in-season.

The Braves could just make the trade and risk losing Greinke after the season.  If this would assure them of a World Series title, maybe even just the NL Pennant, of course they should go for it and not look back.  The problem of course is that nothing is guaranteed and you would hate to lose talented young arms like Julio Teheran or Randall Delgado for just 2-3 months of Zach Greinke without winning anything.

If the Braves are pretty sure they can sign Greinke to an extension and are willing to go all out to sign him, I’m all for going for it.  It will probably take a Teheran or a Delgado plus 2-3 lesser prospects.  I would give Milwaukee it’s choice of Teheran, Delgado or Minor plus throw in 2-3 lesser prospects; perhaps even Teheran or Delgado, plus Minor and a lesser prospect or two.

This isn’t a Mark Teixeira trade.  The Braves can’t make that type of trade simply because they don’t have those types of prospects.  Also, the Braves would give up young pitching in a Greinke deal for a proven pitcher who really isn’t that old.  Young pitching is a huge risk.  Unless you have a clear-cut, absolute stud in your farm system, you should not be afraid of parting with young pitchers in the right deal.

Of course the fact that Greinke is a free agent at season’s end would be the hang-up.  It’s hard to know for sure what the Braves are thinking when it comes to re-signing Bourn or signing some of their young talent to long-term deals, buying out arbitration years.  If they don’t see any fairly cheap, quality centerfield options out there, they may need to pass on Greinke and go hard after Bourn.  And it’s impossible to know what kind of maneuvering they could do with some players, in the way of trades, to free up some budget space.  (Personally I wouldn’t be heartbroken if they explored an Uggla trade this off-season to clear some payroll, in a move somewhat similar to the Derek Lowe trade.)

If the Braves feel pretty certain they can sign Greinke, they should be willing to give up one of their young pitchers with stud potential.  That young pitcher would likely be Julio Teheran.

Knowing Chipper won’t be with the team next year makes every time he steps on the field that much more special. Honestly, I can’t remember the Braves pre-Chipper (I was six years old in ’95), and I imagine it’s going to be very strange to not see his goofy smile in the dugout. Watching Chipper take the field and say goodbye to so many teams and ballparks has been my favorite part of the first half of the season, but there’s been a lot more to enjoy, as well. Here are a few of the most memorable moments of the first eighty games.

Brandon Beachy’s complete game shutout. The bigger story for Beachy, obviously, is losing him to Tommy John surgery. But remember how spectacular his first five games were? He pitched like a seasoned veteran with a young stud’s arm, and that complete game shutout against Miami was the best performance of his career thus far. We won’t get to see him in action for a long time, but it’s not like his career is over. Some pitchers return from Tommy John with even better stuff. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Eric Hinske’s explosion and ejection. I hate when the home plate umpire makes the decision on a check swing rather than asking for assistance, and apparently Hinske does too. In the top of the eighth against the Cardinals, score tied at six, Hinske struck out on a check swing and just about lost his mind. We ended up winning the game in the 12^th inning thanks to a J-Hey homer, but the ejection is what I remember most. Hinske’s had a pretty forgettable season, but he’s still a source of excitement at the dish.

Heyward steals a win on the base path. Remember when Bryce Harper took second on a ground ball to right field because Heyward didn’t field it aggressively. J-Hey took a lot of flak for that, but since then he’s responded by improving his performance all around and hustling at all times. In an extra-inning game against the Blue Jays, Jason beat out the throw for an infield single, then stole second, stole third, and took home and won the game in walk-off fashion on a throwing error.

Andrelton Simmons. Need I say more? Okay, I will. He’s hitting .323/.364/.495, with 12 runs and 14 RBIs in 28 games, and his offense isn’t even the most important aspect of his game. He’s got a .979 fielding percentage and massive range at shortstop. I can’t believe we played two months of the season without him.

The fifteen-inning classic against Philly. In my mind, that game stands out above the rest as the best of the first half. There were too many highlights to mention. The contest went back and forth all night, but finally ended when (who else?) Chipper Jones hit a walk-off homerun in the fifteenth inning. Afterwards, Chipper called it “the most psychotic game I’ve ever been a part of.”

Share your favorite or most memorable moments from the first half in the comments section, and have a great Fourth of July.

I like what Fredi’s trying to do with this statement, and he’s chosen a good time to do it. Carrying momentum into the All-Star break would be a big boost for the second half of the season. Also, we’ve got three home games this week against the Nationals, and we’ll have to face both Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. The Braves have just one win in five games against the Nats this season. Taking two out of three from the division-leaders before the end of the first half can prove that we are real contenders this year.

Huddy answered the call in a big way, pitching eight innings of one-run ball and picking up the win. This is a perfect opportunity for our hurlers to get involved in some friendly competition. Hopefully Hanson can throw seven strong tonight to get a streak going. Then JJ gets a chance to show that his brilliant comeback against the Red Sox was no fluke, that he’s no longer a minor league pitcher, that he can provide consistency in the rotation. No one wants to be the guy to drop the ball and end the streak, which just serves to add a little more motivation to every start. Perhaps this is the chance our team needs to put some energy and excitement in the clubhouse.

Fredi’s other major statement from Tuesday was far less inspiring. He said the club plans to stick with the current starting rotation, meaning Mike Minor is going to continue to start, and Kris Medlen will remain stuck in the bullpen. Mark Bowman quoted Fredi saying, “You’re going to go through some growing pains. You’ve got to stay patient with these young pitchers and keep going.” Have we not been patient enough with Minor? Sure, he’s pitched a few good games (a couple great games even), but most of his starts have been disasters. More often than not, when Minor takes this hill, he doesn’t give the Braves a chance to win the game.

I’m all for developing young players through in-game experience, but at some point Fredi and the front office have to recognize that Minor is doing significant damage to the team during a season in which we have a good chance of being division champs. In 14 games, Minor’s given up 18 homeruns. His ERA is 6.14. It doesn’t help that he always seems to get matched up against the likes of Strasburg and Sabathia. What I want to know is how many more chances does he have? How many more bad starts can Minor have and still remain a part of the rotation?

I want to see Minor succeed. I hope that he realizes his back is against the wall, that he approaches his next start (which, again, is against Strasburg) with determination and focus. However, if we lose again because of a poor performance from Minor, let it be a really terrible performance. Let him be wild and give up the big inning. Because the last thing we need is a little ray of hope for Fredi to cling to. Maybe if Fredi has to pull Minor in the fourth inning or sooner, he’ll realize that the cons of the growing pains are outweighing the benefits.

Medlen has given some indications that he would be a fine option to take a spot in the rotation.  However, there are some red flags as well.  Of course he’s not all that far removed from Tommy John surgery and it’s likely a major reason the Braves started him off in the bullpen was to limit his innings.  Also, Medlen may not be as dominant as some of his numbers seem on the surface.  Medlen just hasn’t shown a remarkable ability to miss bats.  He’s only struck out 5 batters per 9 innings pitched.  That’s Livan Hernandez territory, although he’s keeping the ball in the park much better than Livan (0.3 HR/9 for Medlen versus 1.5 HR/9 for Livan).  Medlen’s control is fine, at 2.2 BB/9 but you would expect a pitcher to post a slightly better strikeout rate coming in to the game in short stints.  But maybe he’s pacing himself because he’s used to starting or holding back because of the injury.  Whatever the reason, he’s not missing a ton of bats.  He would probably be fine as a starter but it’s possible he wouldn’t be as good as people expect.

Julio Teheran showed some flashes of what makes him a great prospect in his one major league start this season.  He struck out 5 and only walked one in 4 1/3 innings, giving up no homers but in the 5th inning of that game, he started giving up line-drive singles, an indication that maybe he’s not quite ready.  And with 6.9 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9 in 58.1 innings so far in Gwinnett, he’s not exactly dominating Triple-A hitters.  He’s only 21, so it’s way too early to write him off but he’s probably not an ideal option this season, unless the Braves fall out of the race.  You probably don’t want his on-the-job training to come in meaningful major league games at this point.

The Braves acquired Todd Redmond before the 2008 season, sending Tyler Yates to Pittsburgh for Redmond because Yates was out of options.  According to Marc Hulet of Fangraphs, back in 2009, Redmond “has average stuff with an 87-90 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.”  So his stuff may not play up all that well in the majors but he’s posted solid peripherals in the minors.  For his pro career he has 7.4 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9 and has allowed 0.9 HR/9.  Most of Redmond’s time in the minors has come as a starter, 189 starts in 195 games.  So he wouldn’t need to be stretched out.

This season Redmond’s strikeout rate is the highest in the Braves’ organization among any starter Double-A or above.  Yes, he’s facing Triple-A batters but he’s missing some bats, and at a better rate than plenty of high-minors pitchers.  In Jurrjens’s 57 1/3 Triple-A innings, he struck out only 4.7 batters per 9.  In the majors, since the start of last season, Jurrjens has struck out only 5.2 batters per 9.  Certainly Redmond, at 27, deserves a shot at some point to throw some major league innings.  It may as well be when the team is searching for a starting pitcher.

Maybe the Braves are hoping to showcase Jurrjens and trade him, opening up a spot for Redmond or someone better, either in a bullpen role or in the rotation.  I have to think that if Jurrjens shows he serviceable, they’ll take what they can get, unless he’s somehow absolutely dominant for three or four starts in a row at the major league level.  Of course, we shouldn’t count on it.  But we should count on Redmond earning a spot somewhere in the majors by season’s end.

Follow me on Twitter: @PayneBall

Many players that win the award never live up to those expectations. Take Hinske, who won the award as a Blue Jay in 2002. Sure, he’s been an important part of several different teams in the last decade, many of which have made playoff runs, but he’s not a perennial All Star, or even an everyday hitter. He’s a decent pinch hitter and backup first basemen. And look at Chris Coghlan, Marlins outfielder who won the honors in 2009. He hit .321 that season with an .850 OPS. What’s he up to these days? Well, he was hitting .140 with a .394 OPS before being sent to the minors last week.

The most deserving players don’t always wind up being chosen. Players who surge near the end of the season are more likely to earn the hardware, especially if there are playoff implications. And players surrounded by hype often have a better chance than players with solid, consistent performances that just don’t get the attention of fans and the media. And sometimes the award ends up in the hands of a player who is hardly a rookie at all. Dice-K and Ichiro each won the award after playing professionally in Japan, and so did Hideo Nomo in ’95, Chipper’s rookie year.

In the AL, I do believe that the most deserving rookie will win the award this year, and that’s Mike Trout. The LA center fielder has an OPS of almost 1.000, an average over .330, and 19 stolen bases (which is first among rookies and fourth among all players). Plus, he’s a competent fielder. At this point, there are only a few other viable options. Jesus Montero is having a great rookie year, but it’s hard to give the award to a DH when there are deserving position players. Chen of Baltimore and Darvish of Texas have performed well on the mound, but neither pitcher has been good enough to outshine Trout. If Baltimore or Texas win a close playoff race, and Darvish or Chen play big roles, then I could see them winning the award.

In the NL, all signs point to Bryce Harper, and for good reason. He’s proving that he’s not all talk, putting up big numbers in a flashy way, and helping his team develop a lead in the NL East. But there are definitely a couple players who could be just as worthy come September. Kurt Nieuwenhuis is playing very well in New York, despite 69 strikeouts in 67 games. His numbers for homeruns, average, and OPS are all just slightly behind Harper’s. And I wouldn’t count out our own Andrelton Simmons. He could have over 100 games under his belt by the end of the year, and if he keeps playing the way he has been, he’ll be one of the top contenders. His impressive defense is what won him the job at shortstop, but his offense has been a pleasant surprise. Notice that all three of these guys play in the NL East. The way this division plays out is sure to have an impact on the way NL Rookie of the Year votes are cast.

Tell me in the comments about any bright rookies I left out, or send me a tweet @ThomasMDuncan.

Most “SABR people” (as Fredi Gonzalez affectionately calls them) understand that relievers need not be tied in to roles defined by the save rule or by inning.  It’s best to use your relievers based on the score and the match-ups and for a manger to focus mostly on preventing runs when the team most needs to, believe it or not, rather than mostly saving one of your best relievers for the last inning when your team has a lead of three runs or less.  You must get to a save situation, after all, before you worry about which pitcher will get the save.  If a team can’t prevent the runs that get them to a save situation, what’s the point of saving one of the better relievers for that situation?

Also, why does a great pitcher, in some cases the team’s best reliever, have to be the reliever to get all the saves.  As Bill James put it, “using your relief ace to protect a three-run lead is like a business using its top executive to negotiate fire insurance.”  Many teams now seem to realize this.  They cater to the you-must-name-a-closer crowd by inserting a veteran guy with perhaps some closer experience in to the closer role while using their best relievers in less determinate roles.  I don’t think this is an accident and that front offices actually think they veterans with experience need to be in that role.  I suspect that this is a way to prevent the firestorm from media and fans speaking out against the dreaded closer-by-committee or no role definitions while still freeing up the best reliever to work when the game is on the line earlier in the game.

Is the closer-by-committee so awful?  The most famous and most blatant recent example of a team flaunting a closer-by-committee approach was the 2003 Boston Red Sox, a team that employed Bill James and a front office full of “SABR people.”  The perception is that they had to scrap the idea because it failed, acquiring Byung-Hyun Kim on May 29, 2003.  Only one problem:  The Red Sox had the third-best record in the American League on the day they traded for Kim and had the third-best record on the day Kim got his first save for the Red Sox.  I suspect that the Red Sox simply got tired of hearing about having no closer every time they happened to blow a close game late.  At some point maybe it just wasn’t worth hearing the outcry and risk allowing a negative vibe to creep in because they weren’t willing to humor the masses.  Every time the Red Sox blew a close game, to many it was confirmation that they needed a closer.  Yet it’s probable that none of those people checked to see how many close games were blown late by teams with set closers.

Having closers who only work almost exclusively in save situations makes the game less entertaining and less competitive.  I do not want Kimbrel or Mariano Rivera or some dominant closer limited to working the 9th inning of a 6-3 game with the 6-7-8 hitters due up.  If Jeter-Granderson-Rodriguez are due up in a tight game in the 7th or 8th inning or perhaps even as early as the 6th inning, I want to see our best against their best.  But the save rule deprives fans of that opportunity all too often.  Not to mention that it may lead to more losses for the team unwilling to use a certain pitcher except in a very limited role.

Major League Baseball should make adjustments to the save stat to end the present lunacy of teams almost exclusively using closers in save situations.  It is in MLB’s interest to do so, to make games more entertaining and competitive.  If managers are going to adjust usage because of a rule or a stat, it’s time to adjust the stat to make sure usage makes sense in terms of making games more competitive and entertaining.

There are ways to come up with a stat that takes into account a reliever coming in at some point earlier than the 9th inning, possibly leaving the game before it ends and keeping the score close.  If we just add some more criteria to the save rule, perhaps this would solve the problem of agents, managers, fans and the media overemphasizing the save rule.

In addition to the current criteria, a pitcher can get a save if he meets these additional criteria:

1) comes in to the game in the 6th inning or later with a margin of no more than 3 runs

2) doesn’t give up a lead if his team is ahead or doesn’t allow the other team to get more than 3 runs ahead if his team is behind

4) gets at least 3 outs, or gets at least one out without giving up a run with the tying run(s) at bat or on base.

Ideally you want stats to actually measure something related to things that players do to help the team win.  A useful stat should just be something to use that is separate from strategy and tactics and used after the fact that help measure the good things the players do to help their teams.  Any stat that influences player usage, strategy and tactics is bogus and more of a construct than it is a measure of something related to skills.

Adding these criteria doesn’t make the save statistic all that much better as far as using the stat to tell us all that much about a pitcher’s skills and performance.  We would still want to avoid looking at saves (along with pitcher wins) in trying to get in-depth information about a pitcher’s performance, skills and capabilities.

But by adding the aforementioned criteria to the save rule, MLB would get a simple stat that managers, agents, players and the media can use that helps keep a team from possibly using its top reliever mostly in the last inning with a lead of three runs or less.  It would free up managers to play match-ups and use relievers more in terms of leverage rather than in terms of making sure one particular pitcher comes in when there is a last-inning save opportunity.

Unfortunately these criteria would allow a pitcher to come in with a three-run lead, give up two runs but get three outs and a save, thereby possibly decreasing the likelihood that his team will win.  Or a pitcher could come in to face some glove-only middle-infielder as the tying run, get one out and pick up a save.  But this is really no worse than the current iteration of the save rule.  Mediocre-performing pitchers get cheap saves quite often.

The idea of adding criteria is not to help measure a pitcher’s effectiveness or keep pitchers from racking up cheap saves.  The idea is to come up with a stat or make adjustments to an existing stat so managers aren’t slaves to the current save rule and so that a great reliever’s role is not just to come in for one inning when the game is often already won and when even a mediocre pitcher could finish the job.

I’m not arguing that it is never appropriate for someone like Craig Kimbrel or Mariano Rivera to enter a game in the 9th inning and, in effect, pick up a current rulebook save.  If that’s when the game is most on the line, when a team most needs to prevent a run and when the match-ups favor Kimbrel or Rivera, by all means, that’s when they should enter the game.  The point is not to keep relievers from coming in to protect leads in the 9th.  The point is to open up the possibilities so that relievers can be used in a variety of situations.

There are other statistics that do a great job measuring whether a reliever increased or decreased a team’s win probability and by how much.  But these are not simple.  And the most glaring situations when the game is on the line are fairly obviously.  Managers just don’t often use their closers in those situations because they want to save their closers for save situations.  The new criteria for picking up a save would help negate the desire for a manager to save one of his better relievers for later in the game, saving him for a situation that may never come if a lesser reliever blows the game earlier.

Teams should cater to winning more than they cater to a rule or a statistic.  If managers (and agents) absolutely need a statistic to cater to, MLB should adjust the stat so that managing to that stat does not mean risking a loss.  Part of MLB’s duty is to make sure teams are trying to win.  The current save rule puts too much emphasis on statistics, something that ironically the “SABR people” understand.

Because most of my friends are northerners and Yankees fans, I end up comparing and contrasting the two clubs at least a few times each season. Any time I manage to conjure up a few reasons why the Braves are as good as or better than the Yankees, the standard end-all response is, “Yeah, but the Braves wouldn’t win half as many games if they played in the AL East.” But is that really true, or just the result of inflated egos form years of disproportionate amounts of coverage and hype-building for the AL East by the national sports media?

 I’ll admit that at the moment, the Yankees are a more complete team than the Braves. They have a stellar offense (as always), a good rotation (although not as solid as usual), and a bit of a shaky bullpen with the absence of Mariano. I don’t hear anyone talk about this, probably because they are still winning almost sixty percent of their games, but the Yankees are getting old. Almost all of their everyday players are 30 or older.

The Braves have been streaky all season, on both sides of the ball, but on most days we field a great defense and a sound lineup, starting with the best leadoff hitter and center fielder in the game right now. Freeman shows few signs of slowing down after his hot rookie season, and Uggla and McCann offer much-needed power in the middle. Heyward isn’t living up to expectations, but we get enough flashes of brilliance from him to remain star-struck. Our rotation isn’t perfect, but we at least get consistent quality out of our top three (Hudson, Hanson, Beachy), and there are few closers in the game who can match up with the Craig Machine.

It’s hard to make this argument while on a four-game losing streak, and having just been swept by the evil empire, but I believe that the Braves are as good as or better than two-thirds of AL teams, including three or four of the AL East teams. And, if you look closely at our interleague games so far, we are only a few bad innings away from having swept the Blue Jays and taken two out of three from the Yanks. If Venters doesn’t leave that pitch to A-Rod right down the pipe, the sweep doesn’t happen. If Bourn doesn’t leave three men in scoring position last night, we win that game too.

Of course, interleague play and actually playing as part of the AL East are two completely different ideas. For one, if the Braves played in the AL, they’d have an everyday pinch hitter, meaning three ABs a night for Hinske, or more plate appearances from Chipper without him having to risk a line drive off his shin. And playing against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays on a consistent basis would mean more ticket sales, more money for our franchise all around, and maybe the front office wouldn’t be as apprehensive about making moves and picking up a big-name bat or two.

I’m not calling for a big shake-up of the divisions. That’s the last thing I want. I’m totally comfortable with the Braves in the NL East, I like the different rivalries we’ve developed over the years, and I enjoy the extra strategy that revolves around the pitcher being part of the lineup. I just think it’s easy for fans of the big-market, spotlight teams to develop a sense of superiority, almost invincibility. But that’s alright, I guess. It makes the wins against those teams (even when they are hard to come by) that much sweeter. The good news is that we’ve got three more games against the Yankees next week, which gives the club a chance at redemption in the Bronx.

The ZiPS projection system (from Baseball Think Factory and Dan Szymborski; projections found at Fangraphs.com) has Simmons at 1.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this season.  This takes in to account what he’s done so far; takes into account other factors about Simmons, his minor league performance and the performance of similar players throughout the history of the game; and projects for the rest of this season.  As you can imagine, his projected value is solid mostly because of stellar defense.

A WAR of 1.2 isn’t outstanding but it’s very acceptable, especially for a young player that did not come to the majors until two months in to the season.  Remember WAR is a counting stat, not a rate stat.  So a player will accumulate more value, i.e., more WAR, the more he plays.

The ZiPS projections have Harper as a 1.7 WAR player this season.  He’s the opposite of Simmons: Low defensive value but plenty of offense.  Harper is expected to be a rather poor defensive player for the rest of the season, costing his team plenty of runs, which is not all that shocking.  Harper was a catcher and thirdbaseman through a lot of his amateur career.  Basically he’s learning the outfield as a professional.  He has the tools to become a solid if not above-average defensive player, and even an adequate centerfielder right now, but he doesn’t seem to be a good defensive player at this point.

While Harper is likely to get better both offensively and defensively, it’s hard to imagine Simmons getting drastically better (or worse) than he is right now defensively.  So much of defense is about pure athleticism, which Simmons possesses and which peaks in a player’s early 20′s.  Pure athleticism is unlike overall baseball ability, which is influenced by both athleticism and experience, and peaks in a player’s late 20′s.  Simmons has plenty of arm strength, quickness and coordination.  In fact, he’s so good in these areas that, even when he starts to lose something in those areas, he’ll still be great.  Plus, as he matures,  he’s likely to fill in any defensive decline in those other areas with the knowledge that comes with experience.

Defense is not all athleticism, however.  Experience matters some, too.  Which brings us to Harper’s defense.  Since he hasn’t really been an outfielder that long, he makes some mistakes on reading the ball off the bat and things of that sort.  His athleticism allows him to make up for those shortcomings to some degree.  He’s an outstanding athlete, one of the most toolsy players in recent memory.  This athleticism makes it possible for him to play an adequate outfield, even centerfield.  But his athleticism only goes so far.  He just hasn’t had enough experience reading balls off the bat from the outfield, etc.  So it’s easy to understand why Harper might cost the Nationals a few runs on defense.

However, a) I’m not so sure Harper will be quite as bad defensively as ZiPS projects and b) he could see plenty of time in centerfield which would increase his value due to positional scarcity.

It’s possible that Harper exceeds expectations and projections on defense.  Should we put anything past Bryce Harper?  Probably not.  And, again, like Simmons, he has more than enough athleticism to be a solid defensive player, he just lacks the repetitions.  Another month or two’s worth of experience in the majors may allow him to exceed those defensive projections.

If Harper is able to play centerfield regularly, that would also increase his value with the bat.  Positional scarcity matters and is a factor.  A centerfielder who hits like Harper is projected to hit (.334 on-base and a .443 slugging, according to ZiPS) is more valuable than a corner-outfielder who hits like that.  A centerfielder who hits makes things easier for his team.

We can think of value as how easy a player makes it for his team to win games.  Brian McCann makes it easier for the Braves to win by hitting very well and being able to catch.  If McCann were a firstbaseman, his bat would play just fine there but he would have less value to the Braves offensively, even if he could field the position adequately.  It would make it a little harder for the Braves to win games because their firstbaseman wouldn’t be quite as good as their opponents’ firstbasemen.  However, at catcher the Braves are always going to have a better hitter than their opponents at that position.  Even if McCann’s offense and defense doesn’t change, his position and what position he plays affects the Braves’ chances.

With concern to positional scarcity, Simmons doesn’t have to hit like Harper to be reasonably close in offensive value.  Few major league shortstops hit well, compared to other major leaguers at other positions.  So if a team has a great defensive shortstop who can merely hang in there with the bat, that shortstop has plenty of value to his team.  Plenty of major league outfielders hit well by major league standards.  So we can imagine a scenario in which Harper isn’t anything special with the bat and is downright not good with the glove.

Harper could jump way ahead of Simmons in value by improving his defensive and improving it enough to make him a more-than-adequate centerfielder.  Everyone expects Harper is going to hit and is going to out-hit Simmons.  But let’s not get too crazy about Harper’s offense just yet.  Harper is still only 19, which is probably why ZiPS doesn’t think he can keep up his current .359 OBP/.500 SLG pace.  ZiPS projects him to be a .334 OBP/.443 SLG hitter at season’s end, while it projects Simmons at a .318 OBP/.362 SLG.  That’s a big difference but probably not quite as big as it seems on the surface.  Remember position matters and Simmons will be playing short, where the threshold for providing offensive value is much lower than it is for outfielders.

There clearly is a difference in the two players offensively and Harper has the edge offensively, even taking into account positional scarcity.  Frankly Simmons just isn’t expected to provide very much on offense.  And, much like his defensive projections, I wouldn’t put it past Harper to blow past those offensive projections.  But it would still be a mild surprise for Harper to greatly out-pace the .334 OBP, .443 SLG and .336 Weighted On-base Percentage (wOBA) that ZiPS projects for him.  Only four 19-year-olds in baseball history have put up better than a .333 wOBA, with minimum of 400 plate appearances.

It’s just as likely that Simmons will outperform his defensive projections to enough of a degree to offset Harper outperforming his offensive projections.  It may even be more likely, considering Simmons has elite defensive tools and is the older player with experience playing shortstop at the professional level.

So the 1.7 projected WAR for Harper and the 1.2 projected WAR for Simmons seem more or less reasonable.  Harper isn’t likely, at 19, to be the hitter he will become at and near his peak.  Simmons is much more likely to provide closer to his peak defensive value this season because the nature of playing defense and the skills it requires, the skills he possesses and his age and experience.    Harper is farther away from his peak than Simmons, and Simmons’s strengths are in the skills and tools that tend to show up at an earlier age.

There’s no doubt that Harper is the better player.  No one would take Simmons over Harper, not this season and certainly not in subsequent seasons.  Value is different from ability and skills, and Harper is one of the most able and skilled players ever.  He’s one of the only players I can remember who would surprise if he does not become a Hall of Famer, assuming no major injury or off-field breakdown of some sort.  I suppose there is a chance Simmons becomes Ozzie Smith but he’s not like Harper.  I’m not arguing that Simmons and Harper are equally skilled or that it’s even close.  I’m not even asserting that I would take Simmons over Harper this season.  However, based on a number of considerations, it’s very likely their values will be reasonably close by the end of this season.

And the field is huge. I know I’m a bit late to the party on this one, but it looks like you could drop Coors Field and The Great American Ballpark inside Marlin’s Park and still have some wiggle room. For the moment, the big outfield suits our defense well. How many extra-base hits did our outfielders take away last night by running down balls hit to the gaps or over their heads? And how many of those hits would have been homeruns in other parks?

Uggla certainly didn’t have a problem with the deep fences, and Andrelton Simmons sent a ball rattling around in the outfield to the tune of his first major-league triple. I know it’s only been three games since Simmons was called up, so maybe it’s a little early to be singing his praise, but I’ve been very impressed with our new short stop, and I find him to be a better overall fit for our lineup that Pastornicky. If nothing else, when I see a ground ball to short, I’m excited to see Simmons handle it, not nervous like I felt with the ball headed Tyler’s way.

And isn’t the knock on Simmons supposed to be his bat? But he hit almost .300 in triple A, and what I’ve seen from him at the plate with the Braves has been pretty good. He looks comfortable, not rigid, or wound-up, or jittery at the dish like you see in some rookies. He’s played three full games now, and he’s got four hits (including a double and a triple) and three RBIs. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t expect him to keep this up and hit over three hundred for the season, but I don’t think it’s out of line to say he’ll be a productive offensive player.

Perhaps what impresses me most about the Simmons Pastornicky transition is that the front office actually pulled the trigger and set the whole thing in motion. It would have been very easy for them to play it safe, stick with Pastornicky until the All-Star break, or until the end of the season. Some fans might have been upset, but the front office could have reasonably defended their decision. But they made the switch, and for that I commend them.

I keep hearing this phrase: the Andrelton Simmons era. Wouldn’t that be great, to have enough stability and consistency from an everyday player to give him his own era? Just last night, the Marlin’s commentators speculated that the Braves expect Simmons to be their starting shortstop for fifteen years.

First impressions don’t always offer an accurate representation of a person or player. Remember Jordan Schafer’s first at-bat with the Braves? It ended in a homerun to center field. Jeff Francoeur homered in his first game with Atlanta. And J-Hey hit homers in his first at-bats of his rookie and sophomore seasons, and now there’s a whole faction of Braves fans who want to chase him out of town like an angry mob.

Simmons will slump. That’s inevitable. He will, of course, make errors. The way he handles himself when he’s having bad games, or making mistakes, or in a rut, will reveal what kind of player he really is and whether or not we can actually depend on him for years to come. Right now, I don’t need to see fireworks from Simmons to be excited for him. I just need him to maintain some confidence, do what he knows how to do, and to continue learning from his coaches and teammates. I do hope we can look back in a few years and see this season as the beginning of the Andrelton Simmons era.

Tell me in the comments what you think of Simmons or Marlin’s Park, or send me a tweet @ThomasMDuncan.

There is no reason for doom and gloom and Francoeur/Komminsk comparisons just yet.  Heyward is absolutely not a bust, at least not yet.  He’s still displaying enough of the tools and skills he showed in the minors and in his first season to indicate he is still pretty likely to fulfill his potential of a solid batting average, a very good on-base percentage and solid power.  Plus, he’s already one of the better defensive right fielders and a solid base-runner.

Heyward’s walk rate last season and so far this season is above 11 percent.  That’s not quite elite but it’s just outside the top 30, right in the top 30-40 range among major league hitters.  While walk rate is far from everything, it’s a very good sign that a 22-year-old is displaying the ability to draw walks at a fairly high rate, even if he’s been less than ideal in other areas.  This is the most glaring difference between Heyward and Francoeur.  Francoeur never had any sort of plate discipline.  He fooled a lot of people because he posted impressive Triple Crown stats which, as I’ll get in to, are not so telling.

So what about Heyward’s failures in other areas besides an ability to draw walks?  He hit .277 his rookie season then dropped to .227 in 2011 and is down to .233 in 2012.  His on-base percentages went from .393 in 2010 to .319 in 2011 but so far has rebounded to .327 in 2012.  His slugging has also bounced around from .456 in 2010 to .389 in 2011 to .413 so far in 2012.

A major reason Heyward gets a bad rap, it seems to me, is because of his low batting averages since hitting .277 his rookie season (not that .277 is all that great a batting average).  The problem is that batting average doesn’t tell close to a complete picture of a player.  Batting average assumes every hit is the same, whether a single or a homerun, and it does not take in to account all aspects of out avoidance.  This is why we need on-base percentage and slugging and other stats related to getting on base/avoiding outs and accruing bases, in order to get a more complete picture of a hitter’s value.

Now Heyward clearly hasn’t been all that impressive a hitter, because even his on-base and slugging have not been great since his rookie season.  But he hasn’t been as awful a hitter as those who tend to over-rely on batting average seem to think.  We can look at a metric like OPS+, which is OPS adjusted for league and park.  This metric adjusts for ballpark, since a hitter’s stats are going to be artificially inflated or deflated by certain parks.  Also it takes into account league environment, which is more useful when comparing players across eras, for example, dead-ball era players to post-1920s players.  It is to a scale where a 100 OPS+ is average, a 110 OPS+ is 10 percent above average and 90 OPS+ is 10 percent below average.

Heyward’s OPS+ since the beginning of 2011 is 95.  That is not great, by any means, but it’s not so bad that, in and of itself, it’s an indication that Heyward is a bust that needs to be sent to the minors for more seasoning.  Again, he’s still taking walks at a rather high rate, a decent indication he can recognize pitches, but he’s just having trouble with tough major league pitching.  But he’s not having as much trouble as you may think, since his offensive production is only about 5 percent below a major league average hitter.  Or maybe you think that’s not so good but, as I’ll get in to, it doesn’t make him an awful player when we take into account all aspects of Heyward’s game.

Another reliable measure of offense is Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).  This uses aspects of yet another stat called Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).  wOBA takes into account the run value of each walk and each type of hit, based on data of how many runs a team typically scores if a hitter gets, say, a walk or a single or a double, etc.  So, where slugging percentage assumes a double is twice as valuable as a walk, wOBA looks at the actual run value.  wRC+ converts wOBA into how many runs a player created and also adjusts for league and parks, just like OPS+.  Also, like OPS+, it is on a scale where 100 is average.

Heyward’s wRC+ since the beginning of 2011 is 100.  So he’s been exactly a league-average major league hitter, even when we take out his rookie season.  Among rightfielders, that’s between Brendan Boesch and David DeJesus.  That’s clearly not good but it’s also probably not as bad as you may think and again, in and of itself, it is not an indication that he needs to be playing in the minors.

Moving on from offense, Heyward’s defensive contributions have been stellar.  Since his career began, the metrics not only indicate he’s one of the best rightfielders in the game but one of the best defensive players in the majors.  The defensive metrics are a little complicated but essentially most of the most reliable ones use zones for each fielding position and how many batted balls within and outside of the fielder’s assigned zone were fielded.  Also, for outfielders, some metrics account for runners advancing on hits to an outfielder and how often an outfielder throws out baserunners.

There are also baserunning stats that take into account several aspects of runner advancement.  Heyward rates as a very solid baserunner, according to these metrics.

So Heyward has been a major league average offensive player since the beginning of 2011.  If we throw 2010 in the mix, he is comfortably above average with a 117 wRC+, somewhere between Jay Bruce and Torii Hunter among rightfielders over the span of his career.  While his offense has been up and down and around league average these past couple of seasons, his defense is great and his baserunning is solid.

To characterize Heyward in simplistic terms, he’s a solid major leaguer, capable of holding a job but he’s not a star, at least not yet.  Basically, he’s a second-division starter (a big leaguer in the bottom 15 at his position).  Why is this not a concern for a player who was once a top prospect in all of baseball?

Well, first of all the Braves aren’t getting replacement or fringe-level value from him.  Even if we take out 2010 that simply is not the case.  A league-average offensive player that contributes greatly on defense and on the bases, that is collecting the league minimum in salary, works just fine for a major league team.

I know some want to discount his age as a factor in why he isn’t a first-division type player yet, essentially arguing that this is his third season and we should see him start to live up to our expectations by this point in his career.  But age is a huge factor.  Currently the average age of hitters in the High-A Carolina League, where Heyward was as an 18-19-year-old in 2008 and 2009, is 22.5.  Heyward is hanging in there as a respectable big leaguer at the age of your typical High-A player.

But Heyward is not “typical,” right?  He should be exceeding expectations, given that he was a top prospect, right?  Well, in a perfect world that would be the case.  But it doesn’t always happen that way.  Very few players, even the most talented in history, settle in as legit first-division major leaguers by age 22.

Using Fangraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which essentially takes into account in some form or another all the measures that I discussed previously, since 1980, only 15 players have collected more WAR through age 22 than Jason Heyward.  Barry Bonds had 8.9 WAR through age 22.  Heyward has 8.7 career WAR.  Justin Upton follows Heyward on the list, with 8.2 WAR.  Heyward doesn’t turn 23 until August, so he’ll have more WAR through age 22 than Barry Bonds.  Yes, Bonds came up at 21 while Heyward came up at 20.  But that should count for at least a little something as well, that a major league organization thought he was ready to do something at the big league level at age 20.

So why hasn’t Heyward been able to match the performance of a player who is essentially the same age and came up around the same time, Giancarlo Stanton?  Stanton has 9.3 WAR.  As you can see, it’s pretty close, probably closer than many of you think.  Not a huge difference between 9.3 and 8.7.  Barry Bonds, Carl Crawford and Tim Raines did not match Stanton’s performance through age 22.  Should we be all that concern that Heyward hasn’t matched it?  Does anyone want to place a bet that Stanton will have a better career than Bonds or Raines and maybe even Crawford?  I certainly wouldn’t take that bet.

So what about Heyward’s recent slump?  Over the last 14 days: .179/.256/.308.  Over the last 28 days: .195/.300/.402.  It seems he’s going in the wrong direction and is this cause for concern?  It’s possible that it is.  But it’s also just as possible that this is just some sort of random slump.  If you’ve been a baseball fan for a while, you realize that these things happen.  Remember Dan Uggla last season?  Remember Dustin Pedroia his first month or so in the majors?  Remember Albert Pujols’s start with the Angels?  It’s not necessarily an indication he’s headed in the wrong direction or that he belongs in the minors.  Certainly it could be.  But a month is simply not enough of a sample to know anything about what he’s likely to do going forward.

As far as sending him to the minors, I strongly suspect that the Braves realize that since Heyward is performing like a big leaguer (albeit not a great one), he’s cheap, he has nothing left to prove in the minors and there frankly aren’t better options, they might as well keep him in the majors and let him develop there.  If he’s going to go down to the minors and take reps there, he’s likely just going to just crush weaker pitching and not be challenged.  He seems to have no major issue with pitch recognition, given that he lays off enough pitches to post a very good walk rate.  His only issue seems to be hitting quality, major league pitches.  To improve he likely needs reps against those types of pitches.

As far as trading him, the Braves simply aren’t going to do it.  Would Frank Wren really take a chance on trading a player with the tools and skills to develop in to a legitimate star?  I’m certainly a believer that no player is untouchable but I imagine it would be hard to find a team willing to give up equal value for a player with Heyward’s tools and skills, who is 22-years-old and who is under contract through 2016.  That should be okay with Braves fans, even if we are a little disappointed so far.

But the hole in our team that worries me the most is definitely third base. You’ve probably all seen the with Chipper/without Chipper split, and if you haven’t, just know that it’s ugly and getting worse every day. What’s uglier? According to Chip (or Joe, I forget which one), the bruise on Chipper’s leg is the ugliest thing ever. He’s on the 15-day DL, and could return within a couple weeks, but who knows what kind of lingering effects this injury is going to have (damn you, Tampa Bay artificial turf!). The original game plan for the hot corner was to play Juan Francisco when Chipper needed a day off, but as the season progresses and Francisco doesn’t seem to improve (or mature), it’s becoming clear that something else needs to be done.

One option is to make Prado the permanent third baseman in Chipper’s absence. Prado is our hottest hitter and a good defensive player no matter where we stick him. I like him at third base, with the only problem being that it leaves a hole in left field. Diaz can play left, but can’t hit righties. Constanza is playing his second consecutive game in left today, but I think we can all agree that this is not a long-term solution. If Prado is going to see a lot of time at third this season (and perhaps take over the position full-time next year), then we really need to acquire another outfielder, preferably someone who can hit for average.

Another option is to keep Prado in left and make a deal for a new third baseman before the deadline. Maybe it’s time that we dealt one of our young arms, traded some potential for some right-now production. The main problem with this option is that I can’t think of a single solid third-baseman who is looking for a change of scenery, or that we could afford. I’d be more than happy to give up Minor or Delgado and a prospect or two in exchange for a consistent third-baseman who can hit.

Ultimately, I’d be even happier if Chipper would just have a healthy, timely return and continue hitting .300 with a homerun every other game. At this point, of course, that’s practically a pipe dream. Barring some Six Million Dollar Man miracle (“We can rebuild him… We have the technology”), we’re going to have to face the facts and find a reliable replacement. It’s not going to be simple, and whoever takes his place is going to have to deal with some difficult comparisons.

There’s another option: don’t make any big move. Just keep shuffling Diaz and Prado and (yes) Constanza around the field and lineup. Close your eyes and hope for the best. Unfortunately, our club will probably go with this option. While plugging the other holes with Freeman and McCann returning to the lineup, and perhaps a return to form from Hudson and Hanson, we’ll just have to hope we can keep the ship afloat.

1B Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox:  Konerko leads major league first base qualifiers in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.  Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols have all been somewhere between ordinary and awful so far.  The old-timer, Konerko, is leading the back of major league first basemen.

2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees:  No surprise here.  Cano has been one of the top second basemen in the game for a few year now.  Cano leads in all the important measures of offensive performance and is having a great defensive season.

SS Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers:  Andrus is having a very good offensive year, but is probably a bit behind Asdrubal Cabrera and Derek Jeter.  However, both are awful defenders and Andrus is not.

3B Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers:  Beltre and Miguel Cabrera have essentially been equals offensively.  Beltre is obviously the better defensive player.  Mike Moustakas is another candidate.  Some metrics have him as one of the better defensive third basemen in the majors and his offense is not far behind the big boys.

C Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins:  Mauer is having a typical Mauer season.  The catcher everyone loves to hate, A.J. Pierzynski, is having an outstanding season, equal to Mauer by some metrics.

DH David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox:  Ortiz and Adam Dunn have had very similar seasons.  As I write this, Ortiz has a slight edge in OPS.

OF Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers:  Hamilton is having a monster season.  He’s slugging over .750.  He’s a free-swinging Barry Bonds.

OF Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles: Jones has put it all together this season to become an elite player.

OF Austin Jackson, Detroit Tigers: Jackson has found his power stroke and is drawing walks.  He’s already halfway to his homerun total from last season.

National League

1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: Yeah, Joey Votto is really good.  No contest here.

2B Omar Infante, Miami Marlins:  Instead of an All-Star utility player, Infante may get his shot at a real position.  It’s pretty amazing that the top NL second basemen are Infante and Jose Altuve.

SS Rafael Furcal, St. Louis Cardinals:  Furcal is the NL version of Paul Konerko, having found the Fountain of Youth.  We’ll see if Furcal can sustain All-Star numbers when his batting average on balls in play starts to normalize to his career levels.  Right now it is rather high.

3B David Wright, New York Mets:  Wright is putting up video-game numbers.  It seems he’s bounced back from his down 2011.

C Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies: Ruiz and the surprising A.J. Ellis of the Dodgers are the front runners among NL catchers.  Ruiz has had a slightly better season offensively.

OF Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers:  Braun is very quietly putting up a great season, presumably PED-free.

OF Michael Bourn, Atlanta Braves:  Bourn has always been an outstanding fielder.  He’s putting up a career year offensively.  Fangraphs also has him as the best baserunner in the league.

OF Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves:  Prado has really bounced back from an off 2011.  He’s having a great year on both sides of the ball.

He’s been that good. I look forward to Beachy taking the mound more than any of our other starters. Hudson’s been great since coming back, and Hanson has pitched well, but Beachy is becoming a star. Is it too early to say that? In any case, that’s how I feel. I’m too young to remember Glavine’s breakout twenty-win season in ’91, or Maddux’s Cy Young-winning first season in Atlanta, but maybe in ten years Beachy will have one of those fancy trophies on his mantle, even (dare I say it?) a gaudy ring on his finger, and I can remember watching him become a star way back in 2012. Maybe. Just maybe. The possibility is so exciting,

Coming into last night’s game, Beachy led the team in ERA, WHIP, and wins. In fact, he led MLB starters in ERA. Then, of course, he nearly gave us an encore of Minor’s performance, allowed four runs, all on homers, and took the loss. At least two of the homers were by @DatDudeBP and none of them by a pitcher, but still, it was a pretty disappointing outing. Dropping two in a row to the Reds hurts even more considering how good we’ve been this year at bouncing back from loses. Plus, it’s the Reds, the 24^th team in runs scored this season.

So seeing Beachy get a little knocked around upset me, but let’s not lose sight of the big picture. It’s one game, just his second loss, and the first time he’s given up three homeruns in a game in his career. Brandon Phillips had a great night, and playing in, as some Twitter folks refer to it, “Coors Field Jr” didn’t help us. Latos had his best stuff and we still only lost by a run. That game was a just a small speed bump in Beachy’s career and Atlanta’s season. It can serve as a learning experience. I was also very impressed by Beachy’s attitude on the mound. I haven’t seen him pitching from behind much this season, and last night he did it and kept his composure, lasted seven innings and only gave up a total of six hits, one walk. So far this season, holding the opposition to four runs is enough to get us the win.

The Braves roster is absolutely pulsing with potential, on both the offensive and defensive sides. Naturally, some of the players with lots of potential will never live up to the hype. Some of them will flounder for their entire careers, and that’s too bad, but it’s just the nature of the game. To me, Beachy seems like the kind of guy who can reach his potential, partly because there has never been an incredible amount of hype around him. Heck, he wasn’t even drafted.

And if it’s not Beachy, it could be Delgado. And if it’s not Delgado it could be Teheran. And if it’s not Teheran, it could be (gulp) Minor. My point is that it’s a good time to be a Braves fan. Enjoy it.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ThomasMDuncan.

My first inclination on this was Chipper Jones.  Since that home run at the beginning of the year to present, Chipper’s body in the line-up changes everything for these Braves.  He’s the driving force behind the success of this team and he is the ultimate Brave.  Chipper’s influence on this club is well documented.  But even if Chipper’s presence in the line-up is more perception than reality, that’s not a terrible thing.  Baseball players are creatures of habit, more prone to superstition and rely more on gut feelings than a drunken palm reader.  But the REAL key to any playoff run the Braves have in 2012 is going to be Tim Hudson.  There’s a case to be made that Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman or even Brian McCann or Craig Kimbrel need to be stuffed in our overhead compartment, but I just don’t think so.  When the post season comes, pitching, ACE pitching, that ONE singular “gamer” pitcher, is key.  I know this may be somewhat of a stretch, but Hudson MIGHT be the best pitcher the Braves have had in the last 20 years not named Glavine, Maddux or Smoltz.  In his 8 seasons with Atlanta, he’s never won more than 17 games.  He’s had a sub 3.0 ERA only once and his lowest WHIP is 1.14 (2009).  2010 has been Huddy’s best year with the club.  He got those 17 wins, sub 3.0 ERA (2.83) and most innings pitched (228.2) two years ago.  But I’ve watched a lot of Braves baseball in the last 10 years.  Tim Hudson IS the Braves stopper.  He IS the leader of Atlanta’s pitching staff.  Hudson is the one constant the Braves can count on to pitch a professional baseball outing every time he’s on the mound.  I understand he’s older and he’s been injured.  But so has the aforementioned Chipper Jones.  I guess a battle tested player with a little mileage on them suits the Braves well.  I don’t trust ANY of the Braves pitchers the way I do Tim Hudson.  Brandon Beachy is getting there. Beachy is a total stud with some real, long term upside.  Jonny Venters is getting there, too.  That’s if you define getting there to mean “trade Venters ASAP while he still has some value and closers are in high demand”.  Tommy Hanson just doesn’t do it for me.  He kinda has that Eli Manning look to him.  Like he’s overwhelmed OR doesn’t care.  But Eli has two Super Bowl rings…Hanson has Scott Boras.

I know the end is a loooooooong way off.  And these 2012 Braves could totally tank like last year.  But I just feel like this team can hit its way into the division crown.  But once the playoffs begin, they’re going to need a horse to ride to the World Series.  So saddle up Tin Hudson, because Atlanta needs you to carry us to another title.

For more of my shenanigans, follow me on Twitter at @YourDailyVinnie.  Thanks!

But, dare I say, the Fredi hate may have gone too far.  Some of the more reasonable criticisms of Fredi have gotten lumped in with the unreasonable.  When the Braves lose, it’s often interpreted as them being flat and seems to be associated with last season’s September collapse.  But how much of the September collapse is on Fredi?  I would say not much. 

We could probably say Fredi costs the Braves a few runs last season, which may have costs the team one or two wins and a playoff berth.  But we can also point to a number of other things, like injuries to Hanson and Jurrjens and the under-performance of the offense.  But the Braves were cruising to a playoff berth going in to September.  If Fredi’s lack of inspiration or something cause the September collapse, why did it not affect the team significantly until very late in the season? 

I strongly believe Fredi deserves criticism for any wrongheaded tactical and strategic decisions.  However, we need to recognize that those types of decisions probably do not cost a team that many runs much less wins throughout the course of a season.  This is especially true once you consider that most managers manage to wrongheaded conventions.  For instance, most managers will not use their closers unless there is a save situation, there is no chance for a save situation (tie game in the 9th or later at home) or they are running out of pitchers.  This is not just a Fredi Gonzalez problem.  This is a baseball-wide problem.  So to say Fredi managing his bullpen this way is costing the Braves is probably disingenuous, in some sense.  Since every team is managed this way, it’s not really a competitive disadvantage if Fredi does the same thing.

We should be critical of Fredi and any manager who makes the less-than-optimal move.  This is the only way the game will progress, to bring out well-reasoned criticisms of the unwise moves.  Often times those moves are going to work out, especially on the defensive side of things, because all hitters usually make outs rather than get on base.  So criticism of managers’ decisions should often be separate from results.  However, we need to be smart enough to recognize that a manager can’t control everything.  If the team looks flat, it may not be because of a manager and it may not even be flat at all.  If a team loses a bunch of games in a rather short time frame and blows a lead in a playoff race, it may having nothing to do with a lack of managerial inspiration, especially when the team is battling injury to some key pitchers. 

Last season I think there were some less-than-optimal decisions by Fredi that went beyond the typical lunacy of most managers:  The aforementioned batting terrible hitters at the top of the order, sitting Heyward too often, too much small ball, etc.  But it seems Fredi hasn’t made quite as many of these sorts of mistakes as he did in 2011.  Maybe that’s due to the front office getting to him, maybe it’s just that the offense is better so it’s harder to make bad decisions with this personnel, maybe it’s that the Braves now have basically three long-men in the bullpen.  Whatever the reason, Fredi deserves some credit for changing. 

Fredi now looks more like every other major league manager.  Sure we would prefer to see someone progressive like a Joe Maddon, that will do the unconventional because it’s the right thing to do and should lead to more wins.  We might want a Bobby Cox, who will not do the unconventional that often but will wear his spikes, constantly and loudly encourage his players and constantly and loudly go at umpires, but those highly-motivational managers are unique personalities.  The next best thing might be the conventional guy who just takes his place as the figurehead of the team, deals with the media in a low-key way, keeps the egos in the clubhouse in check and doesn’t earn a lot of attention for bad reasons.  That’s not to say I think Fredi Gonzalez is a great manager or even a good one.  But sometimes mediocre and ordinary works just fine.

But instead of just blabbering on about how fantastic our league-leading offense is, or how well Fredi has utilized the bullpen (weird, right?), I want to take a look at a couple of key players who have been underperforming thus far: Brian McCann and Mike Minor. If you remember my first blog for this season, the twelve bold predictions, then you know that I had high hopes for both of these guys coming into 2012.

McCann: Brian’s tied for the team lead in homeruns with 6, which I expect out of him, but he is thirteenth and eleventh on the team in the categories of BA and OPS. In 30 games, he has just 27 hits. What really bothers me about McCann’s slow start is that I can’t point a finger at a specific problem. His vision seems fine (despite Michael Bourn’s best efforts), he’s getting scheduled days off, and it’s not like opposing pitchers aren’t giving him anything good to hit. There’s no sense in pitching around McCann when he’s followed by Chipper and Heyward. Maybe he’s working out some psychological problems, or there’s a nagging injury that I don’t know about. In any case, I hope he figures it out soon.

And, for the record, I think it’s a good idea to keep him in the five spot, maybe even give him a few games at cleanup. Uggla is an okay cleanup hitter, obviously has incredible power, but he strikes out more than anyone else on the team (42 times so far this year), and I want more contact out of the cleanup man. I don’t see a reason to move McCann out of his comfort zone in the middle of the lineup. I mean, if he’s the biggest hole we have to worry about, we’re in good shape.

Minor: When he takes the mound, I have no idea what to expect. In his two wins, he’s looked like a pretty solid starter, and in almost every other game he’s been beat up so bad that I wonder if opposing batters take his lunch money after the game. So what do the Braves do with Minor? One option is to just keep him in the rotation, let him work out his problems on the bump. That might mean a few tough games for the club, a few games where we need a lot of run support. Or, who knows, maybe he makes a quick turnaround.

Another option is to bring JJ back and give Minor a few starts in the Minors. Honestly, this is probably the worst-case scenario. Mike has already expressed a strong desire to be in the majors and avoid the minor leagues. I don’t think he would respond well to being demoted.

A third option: we could trade him. Even though he’s struggled this season, he’s young, throws hard, isn’t erratic, and has a strong work ethic. I imagine that more than a few teams would bid on him, giving us a chance to acquire a fourth outfielder, someone better than Matt Diaz. Maybe this is the best thing for the club, to unload him while he’s still valuable. It will be interesting to see how Fredi and the front office handle this situation.

Oh, by the way, the Braves are tied for the second best winning percentage in the bigs, and the only team with a higher percentage is the Dodgers, who we beat two out of three games this season. Excuse me. I have to go run through the streets celebrating.

New York Mets – The Mets are playing well right now.  David Wright is hitting .400 as of today.  Johan Santana looks like the Santana of a few years ago (like Minnesota Twins Santana). They’re playing .500 ball on the road and they didn’t look too shabby in their games against the Bravos.  But when your second best offensive player is Kirk Nieuwenhuis and your second best pitcher is R.A. Dickey (no offense to Dickey, I think he’s a solid pitcher), the success just can’t last.  They’ll eventually get fatigued from changing into one of their 14 different uniform combinations and fade soon enough.  Remember, they were in good shape until All-Star break last year.

Washington Nationals – I know their pitching has been lights out (I have Ross Detwiler on my fantasy team).  I know they have ESPN’s new golden boy, Bryce Harper.  And they have ESPN’s old golden boy, Stephen Strasburg.  But Jayson Werth is out for the next 8 weeks.  Their catcher, Wilson Ramos (who is awesome by the way), is out for the season.  Strasburg is on a 160 inning watch list this year.  And their best offensive player NOW is Adam LaRoche.  Yep, Adam LaRoche.  So while the start of 2012 looks good for the Nats, they’ll go back to being the “Natinals” (uniform joke) by August.

Miami Marlins – BOOM goes the dynamite!  I don’t care what they are doing, how they are playing, the talent they have on the roster or the experience of the manager.  This team is Plutonium 239.  They are one day away from Jose Reyes doing something stupid.  One game away from Hanley Ramirez going postal.  One press conference away from Ozzie Guillen killing any mojo the team has.  And Josh Johnson looks more like Josh Groban in 2012.  So I have NEVER worried about the Marlins this year.  They don’t need anybody to beat them.  They’ll do it to themselves.

Philadelphia Phillies – WOW.  This team looks bad.  Really bad.  And I don’t think it’s going to get better this year.  Even when Ryan Howard and Chase Utley come back, who knows what they’ll get from them.  The “world greatest rotation” lasted ONE year and came up empty.  I’ve never been sold on Cliff Lee being anything but the pitching equivalent of Larry Brown.  ESPN has moved on from Roy Halladay to Justin Verlander as their “slurp-able” pitcher in MLB.  And I’m not scared of Shane Victorino anymore.  All good news coming out of Philly these days.

The Atlanta Braves have a long way to go.  And we know it can go south REALLY quick.  This year just has THAT feeling.  The way the Braves are playing just screams of playoff baseball. Every game that I felt last year they would have lost, they are winning.  They are winning with the bats and I LOVE that.  They have some slight issues in the bullpen, but I give Fredi Gonzalez credit.  His use of the bullpen has been different and it’s been working for the most part. So don’t hold me to it, because anything can happen.  But I feel better about these Braves then I’ve felt about any roster in the past 10 years.

For more of my shenanigans, follow me on Twitter at @YourDailyVinnie.  Thanks!

Gattis has received a lot of press, much of it deserved, considering his story.  But is he actually a prospect?  Could he play well enough in the big leagues to be an everyday player?  How likely is he to add much value to a major league roster?

We should be skeptical of anyone who has barely reached Double-A at age 25.  He’s hitting well but he’s hitting well against weaker competition than what most 25-year-old pros face.  It is true that he missed some development time at an age when amateur players are facing college competition and pro players are going up against players in the low minors.  So he is behind.  But that could be as big a strike against him as it is for him.  The Braves certainly are taking it slow with a player who hasn’t played much baseball over the past 4-5 years but also that time away from baseball is development time lost.  And that lost development time may not show up at the lower levels, against players in their early 20′s who are not as physically mature as Gattis.

Athletes are physically mature, especially nowadays.  But Gattis is a big dude, even for a pro athlete.  He’s bigger than most 25-year-olds.  So the differences in physical maturity between Gattis and his competition, minor leaguers in their early 20′s, is even more drastic than your typical 25-year-old.

It is true that these players in their early 20′s have more experience than Gattis.  But this goes back to the point about that lost time.  It will always be the case that Gattis will have less experience than other pro players, regardless of level.  Now, eventually that may not matter but there is a good chance it will always put him behind other players.

If we look at where his offensive value is coming from in the minors, it appears to be coming from his ability to hit the ball with authority and with power.  His career slugging percentage is .560 and his career batting average is .317.  He’s walked 45 times in 179 games and has a .380 OBP, in spite of a .317 average and .560 slugging; not bad but not overly impressive signs of a disciplined hitter.  Hitting the ball with authority should come relatively easy for a 25-year-old playing against players in their early 20′s.  Certainly it’s not a bad sign that he’s doing it but you would like to see some more signs of solid plate discipline considering the Braves are playing him in leftfield.

That brings us to another concern, which is his defensive value.  Gattis played mostly catcher in his first two seasons of pro ball.  He also played a few games at firstbase.  This season the Braves decided to play him some in leftfield.  It’s a good sign that the Braves want him to get experience at other positions besides catcher and that they feel he can do a serviceable job there.  After all, the Braves have Brian McCann in the majors and a great defensive catching prospect in Christian Bethancourt, so it’s to Gattis’s advantage that he finds a new position.

But given that Gattis is a big catcher, is already 25, and the Braves didn’t play him anywhere but first or catcher his first two pro seasons, he not likely to be much better than a replacement-level leftfielder, if that.  If the Braves thought he was a good defensive outfielder, they probably would have moved him at some point in his first two seasons or they would be playing him some in rightfield and perhaps centerfield.

Gattis looks like a bench bat, sort of a Ryan Doumit type, who can catch and play some corner-outfield but isn’t likely to provide enough offensive or defensive value to play in the corner-outfield every day.  If he’s is forced into an everyday role in leftfield, I don’t think it will be a disaster.  I just don’t see him providing a lot of value there.  Players need to hit a ton to provide offensive value in leftfield.  And it’s unlikely that he’s a valuable defender there.  It seems he has enough power to provide occasional pop and hit for a solid batting average in the majors but I don’t know if he’ll draw enough walks against major league pitching to be a legit offensive threat as a leftfielder.  That’s why I say his likely value is that of a bench bat who can play some left and catch.  If Gattis can do this, even if he’s the 23rd or 24th man on the roster, so to speak, it will be a great story and the Braves will extract plenty of value from a guy who wasn’t really on anyone’s radar before this season.

Fredi insists that O’Flaherty wasn’t trying to hit the batter, and I want to agree with him, but the pitch that hit DeJesus was the third pitch in a row to go way inside the strike zone. Because I don’t want to pony up the extra dough for MLB TV Premium, I was stuck listening to the home team broadcast. The Cubs commentators (Len Kasper and Bob Brenly) saw it as an obvious intentional HBP, payback for payback for an 0-2 breaking ball that slipped out of Tommy Hanson’s grip in the early innings. If it was intentional, it was foolish, because it resulted in a big run for the Cubbies.

As all this transpired, the commentators discussed Cole Hamels’s recent foray into the exciting business of intentional bean balls. His deliberate throwing at young phenom Bryce Harper earned Hamels a five-game suspension. Hamels openly admitted to throwing at Harper as a way of welcoming the cocky rookie into the big leagues.

I have so many problems with this that I don’t know where to begin. The Cubs broadcasters called Hamels stupid, but only for opening his mouth and admitting to his actions, not for throwing at Harper. Have intentional HBPs really become an accepted, expected part of the game? I find that a disgrace.

If you don’t think any harm is done by purposefully hitting a batter, take a trip to your local batting cages. Go to the cage with the fast-pitch machine, then stand on the plate, and turn into the pitch. And later, when you’re icing your back, remember that there is no way the pitching machine throws as hard as major leaguer.

Intentionally throwing at batters is dangerous, comes with a high potential for injury, and often results in retaliation from the opposing team. And if that’s not bad enough, it doesn’t make the sport of baseball look tough, or cool, but childish. It makes juvenile punks out of professional athletes (and I know a thing or two about juvenile punks, because I used to be one). There’s no place in the game for this kind of strong-arm tactic. I think it’s time America’s pastime grew up.

Of course, Hamels received his comeuppance. Better than the five-game suspension, he has to deal with the embarrassment of being the first MLB pitcher to allow a teenager to steal home in more than fifty years. Almost as bad as accusing Chipper of relaying signs from second base, but I’ll save that can of worms for another day.

I’d be glad to hear some other perspectives on the intentional HBP. Leave your thoughts in the comments or send a tweet my way: @ThomasMDuncan.

What do you do if you’re a Nationals fan OR have a player like Harper on your team?  Some fans say “I don’t care about character or bad attitudes, I just want to win”.  I assume these people are the same people who like the University of Miami Hurricanes, the Baltimore Ravens, live in Philadelphia and kill butterflies in front of kindergartners. I don’t understand people like this because they have no character filter AT ALL.   These fans would take Fidel Castro on their team if he was a “5 tool player”.  Too bad one of those tools is handcuffs.  Most fans, I believe, suspend their feelings about a player or two because they are a fan of the team.  I know a bunch of Pittsburgh Steeler fans that LOVE their black and gold, but aren’t going to buy their kid a Ben Roethlisberger jersey or go to any bars in Milledgeville, Ga.  Braves fans do this when they turn a blind eye to David Justice.  He wasn’t the worst guy ever, but he went trolling for drugs in Florida (I’m sorry, I mean he got lost in a BAD neighborhood) and broke up with Halle Berry.  Breaking up with Halle Berry is cause alone to question his character.  Then there are some fans that are total old school.  They want to keep their moral high ground at all costs.  These fans don’t care if they lose every game of every year.  As long as they root for a team that doesn’t have Ray Lewis or the Devil himself.  Like the quote from “Usual Suspects”, The greatest trick Ray Lewis ever pulled off was convincing the world he didn’t exist.

We don’t have this issue too often here in Braves Country.  John Rocker was a jerk and I’m sure most fans were ashamed of him being associated with the organization.  Escobar is the most recent malcontent Braves fans had to deal with.  But in the whole, the Atlanta club simply doesn’t put up with those type players.  Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz did a great job of indentifying those crumb bums and getting them on the first Grey Hound bus out of Fulton County.   And it most likely hurt the team in the wins column.  But as a curmudgeon AND a sports fan, I like this way of operating.  I love to win.  I love when the teams I root for win.  But I love being an aloof, snobby “nose down at the great unwashed” fan even MORE.  You’re player got arrested?  Good.  Your team got caught doing cocaine off the belly of a Columbian escort while watching a cock fight and illegally taking the tags off some mattresses?  Awesome for us! You like the Phillies and wear jean shorts?  Typical.  All of this bad behavior makes me feel better about my Braves.  Because we haven’t sold our soul to Ray Lewis…I mean, you know who, to win games.

So Braves fans, keep your chin up!  We may be the San Antonio Spurs of MLB, but that’s a GOOD thing. We may not get all the press, all the national attention and all the hoopla, but we get something much more satisfying.  Players we can root for and a team that, more often than not, does things the way we’re not ashamed of.  And that’s no small thing these days.

No matter what you’ve heard about the up-and-coming Nationals.  No matter how much money the Marlins spent in the off-season and how fiery their new manager.  No matter that the Braves’ new hitting coaches have improved their hitters’ approaches or the strides made by Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor.  No matter that the Phillies are playing maybe a less-than-fringe secondbaseman and the corpse of Juan Pierre in left (okay, so he hasn’t been terrible), and Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are all injured.  The Phillies are still the team to be in the East.

We could have written this before the Phillies took two out of three from the Braves in Atlanta.  Twenty-three games is just not enough.  It’s impossible to overstate that 23 or 25 or 26 games is not enough.  If you are changing your preseason expectations and predictions after a month, the joke will be on you come July, August and September.  But with the Phillies taking two games in Atlanta, it’s a great time to remind folks that the Phillies still have the most talented pitching staff in the game and enough offense to support it.  Any hopes that they would go away is false.

The Phillies won 102 games last season.  They did it with a league-average offense.  Their offense wasn’t much better than the Braves’ in 2011.  The Phillies posted a .323 OBP and a .395 SLG while the Braves posted a .308 OBP and a .387 SLG.  But the Phillies play their home games in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.    But the Phillies allowed the fewest runs in the league while playing half their home games in that hitter-friendly home park.

Sure, it’s unlikely Shane Victorino will repeat their 2011 performances.  Ryan Howard was solid last season and they almost certainly won’t get the same value out of firstbase this season.  I wouldn’t bet on Jimmy Rollins or Hunter Pence having the same types of seasons they had in 2011.  And Chase Utley may not even play.  And I don’t expect the pitching staff to be quite as dominant as it was last season.  But 102 wins with the run differential of a 103-win team means they can afford to take some steps back.  And they still have Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee will return at some point.  They still have Carlos Ruiz, and Victorino, Rollins and Pence still provide plenty of value to keep the offense afloat.

Does this means that Braves can’t win the division?  Absolutely not.  The Braves truly have the offensive potential to be a top-5-in-the-league offense, especially if they can find a way to pull of a trade for one more bat at some point.  And clearly their pitching staff is just a notch below the Phillies, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Phillies’ run prevention take a step back enough for the Braves to hang close.  Certainly the Phillies stranglehold on the NL East is less of a sure thing than in previous seasons, even with the high expectations of the Braves coming in to 2010 and 2011.

But just because the Braves can win the East doesn’t mean that’s the most likely scenario.  That was true on April 4th and is still true on May 4th.  It doesn’t matter much what has happened between now and then.  It doesn’t matter what happened when the Phillies played the Braves this week.  Even if the Braves had swept the series, it wouldn’t have mattered.  The Phillies are good.  They aren’t going away.  We’re in for a race.

Andruw Jones: Remember that skinny kid from Curacao with the big smile who could cover center field like a tarp? Well, he’s all grown up, and his current gig is as a backup left fielder for the Yankees. Since leaving Atlanta in 2007, he’s bounced around the league and only played in more than 100 games in a season once. I used to play the MLB2K video games, and the game commentators were programmed to say a few things about each player for each team. In one of them, probably 2K2 or 3, the stock phrase the commentators used when Andruw made a catch was something like this: “It’s clear that he’s the best center fielder in the game today. The only question is, is he the best center fielder ever?”  I think we all know the answer at this point. I’ve always had a soft spot for Andruw, and I wish his career could have turned out better, but he seems to be happy in his current role. Besides, if he sticks around with the Yankees long enough, he’s bound to get a ring.

Jordan Schafer: Most people probably know what Schafer is up to these days, but I couldn’t resist. His career has been like a car wreck. No, wait, it’s been like a circus. No, I’ve got it: it’s been like a circus of car wrecks. I still remember watching his Major-League debut, seeing him hit a homerun in his first at-bat, and thinking, this kid is the real deal. He then proceeded to perform dismally, get sent to the minors, give HGH a try, and be arrested for possession of marijuana. He did start this season with the Astros by reaching base in 23 consecutive games, but then he got ejected for throwing a temper tantrum at second base. Also, he’s day-to-day with one of those nagging oblique strains. If you watched the Houston series last month, then you know Schafer had the cojones to test Chipper’s bare-hand abilities with a leadoff bunt. Chipper reminded him who’s boss.

Brent Lillibridge: I went to a Braves game in Toronto a few years ago. Before the game started, Bobby Cox came out of the dugout and to the railing near my section of seats. Immediately, an enormous crowd surrounded him, hounding him for autographs. At the same time, some short, skinny rookie in a Braves cap stood at the railing about thirty feet away. One or two people gave him a ball to sign, but there was no line for him. Mostly he got curious stares. I didn’t even know his name. That player was Brent Lillibridge. Unlike the other players on this list, you might have completely forgotten about our friend Brent. To be fair, he played less than thirty games with Atlanta.  Since 2008 (the season he played in Atlanta), Lillibridge has been part of the White Sox organization, and the last three years, he’s stayed in the Majors. And here’s something fascinating: as of today, Lillibridge has more stolen bases (6) this season than hits (4).

Derek Lowe: There must be something in the water in Cleveland. That’s the only way I can explain it. Anyone who followed the Braves last year will tell you that Lowe didn’t earn a spot on the roster, that paying him 10 million dollars to play for the Indians was our best option. Yet, so far this season, he’s been nothing short of an ace. He has almost half as many wins already this year as he had all of last year, and he’s pitching like the Derek Lowe of the pre-Braves days. Don’t get me wrong, I still think we made the right move, and I don’t want him back. I just don’t understand it. Maybe he just needed a change of scenery. Whatever the case, I’m happy for him. Right now, the Indians lead the AL Central (with an 11-10 record), so there’s a chance we could see our old friend in the playoffs.

Who are your favorite former Braves? Leave their stories in the comments.

Find me on Twitter: @ThomasMDuncan

Some of Chernoff’s Tweets:

“how bout let him win double digit games 1st…”

“[70-74 Matt Cain] has won 70 games…Beachy has won what 10? Let [Beachy] put 1 big time season together before we say he is a top of a rotation guy”

“tell Verlander, Halladay and Kershaw wins don’t matter..”

Now I understand what Chernoff was trying to say…I think:  Beachy has only had one season of 25 starts in the majors.  So let’s wait another season or two before we call him one of the better pitchers in the game.

However Chernoff did call Beachy a four or a five, which was a poor choice of words for a few reasons.  First, it ignores Beachy’s skills.  Second, it assumes a player needs experience to be considered a very good major league player.  Third, Chernoff emphasized that he hasn’t won enough games to be considered a two or a three, relying heavily on wins to measure the quality of an individual pitcher.

I think Beachy is clearly a three, an upper-echelon number three, and might just be a number two.  This is because of Beachy’s skills right now.  Beachy misses bats (10.1 strikeouts per 9 innings in his career), he has pretty good control (3 walks per 9 innings) and he does a good enough job keeping the ball in the park (0.8 homeruns allowed per 9 innings).  What I mean by that is I believe Beachy could likely be a number three, possibly a number two, on most major league pitching staffs and could likely do it this year and the next several years.  In other words, he’s not just a guy who could be a two or a three for a season or two if everything breaks right.  He simply is a number two or three, without qualification.

While it is true that Beachy is inexperienced–this is only his 5th professional season and will be his second full major league season–it’s okay to call him something greater than a number four or a number five.  Overrating experience in baseball drives me crazy.  Yes, I understand that players need repetition to hone their craft.  But if a player is good enough, he’s good enough, no matter if he’s played 40 games or 400 games.  If a pitcher has the skills to be a number two or three and they are actualized, he’s a number two or three.  I hate it when teams don’t give deserving young players a chance because the players lack experience.  I hate it when a fan wants his team to go with a veteran because the stud rookie lacks experience.  Lack of experience should never be a primary reason for a team not playing a player.

I understand waiting a couple of years before claiming Beachy is a better pitcher than some established, clear-cut number two or number three.  But it’s okay to say Beachy is a number two or three right now.  And if you don’t want to say he’s a number two or three yet, I’m not sure you can claim he’s a number four or five.  He’s certainly better than that.  If we are forced to categorize, I think we have to say Beachy is a two or a three.

Chernoff’s most egregiously flawed argument supporting Beachy as a four or a five is that Beachy hasn’t won enough games in a season or in his career to be considered better than a four or a five.  We should all know better by now.  Beachy’s first full season with the Braves happened to coincide with their worst offensive season since 2002, when Julio Franco, Keith Lockhart and Vinny Castilla received regular playing time.  Run support cost him wins in his first and, so far, only full season in the majors.  He started only three games the season before and has made four starts this season.   So the bulk of his career starts came with a rather poor offense attempting to give him run support.

It is true that Beachy doesn’t typically go deep in to games.  However it’s fairly normal for a high-strikeout pitcher to throw a lot of pitches.  The Braves were not and are not going to leave him out there at ages 24-25 to throw 120-130 pitches.  Sure that’s going to cost him wins when the Braves take leads in the late innings.  In the four games in which Beachy started and got no decision but the Braves won, the Braves scored a grand total of six runs.  The offense is just as much to blame for Beachy not padding his win total as is Beachy leaving those games early.

Discussing where Beachy ranks among major league pitchers is one thing and taking a wait-and-see approach is one thing.  Making an assessment as to where he would belong in most major league rotations, now and for the next several years of his career, is a little different.  If most teams had a pitcher like Brandon Beachy, he certainly wouldn’t be slotted in to number four or five in their rotations.

Follow me on Twitter: @PayneBall

Last season, before the All-Star break, if you told me that after four starts this season JJ would have no wins and a 9.37 ERA, I would have called you nuts. For half of 2011, Jair was white hot, almost unhittable at times, and he carried a league-leading ERA into the All-Star break.

Now his velocity is down, his breaking pitches don’t have the same bite as before, and he just looks uncomfortable on the mound. I have to ask: Does JJ have Steve Blass Disease?

For anyone who doesn’t know, Steve Blass Disease (SBD) is a label used to describe a pitcher who experiences a sudden and unexplained loss of the ability to pitch. It happened famously to Steve Blass in the early seventies. If you don’t remember that far back, think Mark Wohlers and his epic, sudden demise. Some say that SBD is just a psychological problem that pitchers who suddenly can’t seem to pitch are just over thinking. (Maybe it’s like Dizzy Dean said, “The dumber a pitcher is, the better.”) However, most players diagnosed with SBD never return to form. Rick Ankiel is an interesting exception, because he returned to the big leagues as an outfielder after coming down with a bad case of SBD.

While JJ has certainly struggled this season, I find it hard to diagnose him with SBD (yet), mostly because he is so young. Because he’s been with our club for six years now, it’s easy to forget that he’s just 26 years old. It’s just as likely that JJ’s current issues are just a bump in the road, a pothole on his path to his prime. Maybe a Triple A stint is exactly what he needs to refocus, perhaps make some mechanical adjustments before returning to the Majors. However, if he flounders in the Minors, or doesn’t show significant improvement when he rejoins the Braves, he might be an SBDer. In that case, I think it would be best to unload him in any way possible.

To be clear, I have nothing against JJ. In fact, I think he’s a great player, and I really hope he gets over this hump in time to resurrect his season. The best sign for JJ is his off-field attitude. After his last start (but before being told he’d be sent to the minors) he said to the press, “I’m not a quitter… I’m just going to keep fighting.” And that’s exactly the attitude he needs to have if he is going to be successful as a Brave.

We are lucky enough to have a wealth of pitching, especially with Tim Hudson returning to the rotation to fill in for JJ. Also, JJ’s Triple A assignment means more Major league action for Delgado, who most people assumed would be sent to Gwinnett when Hudson returned.

Leave a comment about your thoughts on Jurrjens, and follow me on Twitter @ThomasMDuncan

1. Michael Bourn – Bourn has been the table setter the Braves needed him to be.  It’s such a simple formula, but it’s so hard to find.  A player that knows how to get on base, put pressure on the opposing pitcher and get into positions that manufacture runs early in the game.  He leads the team in hits and runs (he’s leadoff, so no shock there).  Bourn also leads the team in steals.  I love a man who steals bases.  Lou Brock, Ricky Henderson, et al.
2. Brandon Beachy – B2 has an ERA of 0.47 and a WHIP of 0.88.  Those aren’t normal pitching stats my friends, those are breathalyzer readings.  This kid may very well be Atlanta’s next great pitcher.   With Jair Jurrjens 8.10 ERA and Tommy Hanson ability to sometimes look like Tom Glavine in the early innings (by the by…that’s NOT a compliment), we’ll need the young guns to carry the load on the mound.
3. Freddie Freeman – Fab Five Freddie is heating up and I think all Braves fans like what they see.  He’s leading the team in RBIs with 22, tied for second in hits with 17 and is hovering around 300 AVG.  His strike outs are a bit worrisome, but you can’t hit it if you’re not swinging.  And if Fredi with an “I” is going to bat Freddie with an “DIE” in the third hole more often, we need #5 swinging the bat.
4. Jason Heyward – Jay Hey could have easily been #3 on this list.  He is RAKING this year.  I’m not a big “mind game” guy, but since Fredi sat Heyward that 4^th game of the year, Jason seems like he’s out to prove to the world he’s “the man”.  Heyward is tied with Freeman with 17 hits, is one of two players hitting over .300 as of today,  second in OBP at .377 and his OPS is .904.  Jason is tied for second in BB at 6.
5. Chipper Jones – Chipper doesn’t have any gaudy stats on anything that really set him apart from the other everyday players (though calling him and everyday player is like calling Kim Kardashian “America’s Sweetheart”). His presence and leadership when it looked bad at 0-4 really kick started 2012 and put 20111 to rest.
6. Mike Minor – WHY did we want to trade this guy?  Minor has 20 innings in 3 games, a WHIP of 0.89, 19 strikeouts in those three games and ONLY 5 walks.  Watching Minor pitch this year, he looks mad.  I mean REALLY mad.  He seems like maybe he’s one of those people that when they get angry, they channel it and start destroying all competition in their path.  I kinda like that.  Being someone that people tend to dismiss as an inferior athlete, I love nothing more than when someone who doesn’t feel valued takes that aggression out on the nay-sayers.  I’ve always loved you Mike…really I have.  Please stay angry, it suits you.
7. Juan Francisco – Ok, this is weird to me, too.  After that first game, I assumed he’d be on the first boat, plane or aqua-car back to the Dominican Republic.  But in 12 games he has 8 hits, 7 RBIs, batting .286 AND has an OPS of 1.025.  Not too shabby for a guy that looked like he never saw a baseball up close during his first game as a Brave.  And his 20 total bases are a result of being tied for the team lead in HRs with 3.
8. Jose Constanza – The Braves are 10-3 since the “Michael Jordan” of two weeks in 2011 was sent down.  So thanks for doing your part, Jose.
9. Craig Kimbrel – Kimbrel is the one back end closer I’m not too worried about.  5 saves in 6 games and he looked REALLY, REALLY good this weekend. 9 strikeouts and a .227 opposing avg in 6 games is ok by me.  But that 1.67 WHIP for a 9^th inning guy has me concerned.  That means too many wild rides in that last 3 outs.  But he was shaky at the beginning of 2011 and was lights out most of the year.  He’s earned a bunch of patience from Braves fans.
10. Eric Hinske – I know, what am I talking about?  I think that whatever team this guy is on, he’s a positive and motivating influence.  Tito Francona was talking about him over the weekend and spoke of Hinske’s time in Boston.  He glowed about his unselfishness and willingness to do whatever the team needed.  And was a huge presence in the clubhouse.  And I’m a BIG believer that those types of people, in sports and in life, are vital to success.  People want to work with people they like and they trust people who are willing to help them get better.  Hinske, as well as David Ross, seem like that type of person.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the Braves power ranking!  We’ll try to do this again around the All Star break. Feel free to let me know how stupid I am and where I went completely off the tracks.

However the Braves are walking more often and striking out less often than last season.  They’ve posted a higher on-base percentage and a higher slugging percentage this season.  The Braves are among the league leaders in pitches per plate appearance this season.  Last season they were just below the league average, ranking 9th out of the 16 National League teams.  Of course we all know last season the Braves’ offense disappointed.  This season the offense is one of the better offenses in the league in the early going.  Granted, it’s way too early to know how things will turn out but the team is living up to its offensive potential so far.

I’m not sure what to make of the fact that the Braves’ numbers with concern to making contact and swinging seem to intuitively be worse than last season, except that they must be taking a better approach and picking out the right pitches with which to do their damage.  It seems they aren’t overly concerned about making contact but–given that they are drawing more walks, striking out less, getting on base more and slugging higher–it seems they are picking out the right pitches to lay off of and they are definitely doing more with the pitches that they hit.

Hitting coach Greg Walker and assistant Scott Fletcher are already getting a lot of attention.  Fair or not, it’s understandable, given that the Braves offense was consistently solid with Terry Pendleton as hitting coach, wasn’t very good under Larry Parrish in 2011 and has bounced back early this season under Walker and Fletcher.  It’s hard not to draw conclusions.

Still, we should point out that it’s still very early.  The Giants have scored more runs per game than the league average and the Reds have scored fewer runs than all but one NL team.  It will be a while before we know for sure whether the Braves’ offense has turned the page from 2011.  And we can’t have it both ways.  The Braves’ offense looks great but the run prevention doesn’t look so hot.  So if we are willing to take a wait and see with the sub par run prevention, it’s only fair to wait to see what the offense does as the season progresses.

Follow me on Twitter: @PayneBall

Washington: For some reason, I find it hard to take this team seriously. Maybe it’s because they’ve only been in the US for a few years, or maybe it’s because they once wore jerseys with their team name misspelled (“Natinals”). But I have to take notice this season, because it’s quite possible that the Nationals have never fielded a better squad. Carried by a formidable starting rotation, the Nats are off to league-leading start. Jayson Werth leads the club with a .362 average, and former Brave Adam LaRoche is third in the MLB with 13 RBIs. They’ve won every series thus far, but haven’t exactly faced the toughest opposition (Cubs, Astros, Reds, Mets). We’ll see what the Nationals (or the “Natinals”) are really made of when they end April with a west-coast road trip, then begin May with a couple home series against the Dbacks and Phillies.

Atlanta: Having won seven of our last eight, that grisly start is little more than a distant memory, albeit a painful one. Since Chipper’s return, our offense has been clicking on all cylinders. His presence has had an obvious positive effect on our club, but they’ve been able to win without Chip as well, getting great production from Michael Bourn, Uggla, and especially J-Hey. Freeman slumped, but now he’s got four hits in the last two games, including his first homerun. Juan Francisco even has back-to-back games with homers. At this point, there’s no bigger concern than our inefficient pitching. Starters and relievers alike have been throwing too many pitches in too few innings. I worry about our pitchers getting worn out, and I worry even more about consistently using on Durbin and Hernandez. Even using them to eat up innings in out-of-reach games makes me nervous. If we could have a couple games in which the starter completes seven innings, we could avoid overworking the bullpen while sticking with our best four guys: Medlen, O’Flaherty, Venters, and Kimbrel. Hopefully we can build on our momentum in our upcoming road games against Arizona and LA, and maybe even get a few deep starts our of our rotation.

New York: Even though they dominated us in the opening series (honestly, we kind of beat ourselves) nothing makes me think New York will be a true contender this year. Then again, maybe that’s just my anti-Mets bias showing, because David Wright is the hottest hitter on the planet, and the rest of their offense can get the job done as well. Their starters looked sharp the first time around, but in Atlanta they’ve been shaky at best (see Johan’s 1.1 inning start).

Miami: Between the preseason hype, the wacky new stadium (which looks more like a theme park than a ballpark), and Ozzie putting his foot in his mouth, the start of the Miami season has been a circus. But Hanley Ramirez is heating up, and our old friend Omar Infante is off to a great start (despite an unforgivable bases loaded error). If nothing else, they are fun to watch and make for good story lines. It’s just too bad that national sports media devotes more coverage to Miami’s controversy than the rest of the NL East combined.

Philadelphia: I can’t overstate how happy I am to see Philly at the bottom. For our chances at winning the division, it’s critical for them to lose as many games as possible early on, before Utley or Howard return (if they return this season). Halladay is going to get his wins; it’s inevitable. But the rest of their rotation has proved vulnerable, which is good news for opposition. I have complete faith in Atlanta’s ability to sweep Philly if we get matched up against their third through fifth starters. However, don’t get used to seeing them in the lower half of the standings. They’ll string together a winning streak sooner or later. I just hope they don’t get their act together by their first meeting with Atlanta on May 1^st.

Follow me on Twitter @ThomasMDuncan, and go Braves!

Last year, the trio of Eric O’Flaherty, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel were about as automatic as they come. If the Braves got to the 7^th inning, it was game over. And no one pitcher was better than the other. All three of them were lights out. Well, someone forgot to pay the power bill in 2012. Because as Robert Palmer sang in “Addicted to Love,” “The lights are on…but you’re not home”. Actually, not having power would keep the lights out, but that contradiction in my analogy wouldn’t let me quote Robert Palmer, so I’m ignoring that little quirk. Maybe think of the movie “Glengarry Glen Ross.” If coffee was for closers only, these guys would need to think about switching to green tea in the mornings. Yea, that’s a better analogy.

Braves fans began to see the degeneration of this fabulous threesome of hurlers at the end of last year, but I think we all blamed Fredi Gonzalez for simply over using all three of them. By September, they looked gassed and out of energy. Kimbrel looked like every finish was a struggle. Venters didn’t have that same dominating stuff he had earlier in 2011. And I’m pretty sure O’Flaherty finally looked at his driver’s license and realized “Oh…I’M Eric O’Flaherty! I guess I need to start pitching like him”.

When you reflect on it, it’s amazing what these three amigos accomplished in 2011. And I’m not sure we’ll see anything like that again anytime soon. Like the two week old Mexican leftovers in my refrigerator, most relief pitchers have a short shelf life. John Smoltz was dominant for a few years. Marino Rivera has been KILLING it for about 15 years. But if you really think about the last 20 years of relievers in MLB, most of them have a good year or two and then fizzle out. Our boy Mark Wohlers was the man for about 2-3 years, then gone. Jonathan Papelbon did it for a 3-4 year stretch; now let’s see what he does. Eric Gagne was so dominant for his Cy Young year, and then they found a needle in his pocket. Brad Lidge closed out the Phillies World Series, now I have NO idea where that cat is.

So when you have three guys…yes, THREE guys all having career seasons, it’s safe to assume it’s the perfect storm. And for those of you who saw the movie “The Perfect Storm”, you know the boat got swallowed by a humongous wave and killed everyone. Fredi just might be that wave that kills the bullpen. That is, if a wave can “tip its cap” to inferior teams at will. The stars aligned for these guys to crush the competition for a season, but now it’s over. 2011 was 2011 and this year, the Braves need a new plan. Fredi already confused Braves fans when he brought in Kris Medlen the other night and pitched him for ONE inning only! What the heck, Fredi? Medlin is a total bulldog and he needs to be highlighted on this staff with a more important role. I know he’s a long reliever. But I honestly believe he fears nothing and loves the spotlight. He has total confidence in his pitches and should be Atlanta 7^th or 8^th inning guy in combination with Venters. Frank Wren can pick up another 40 year old pitcher if the Braves need long relief help down the road.

So like that crazy traffic on I-16, the late innings for Braves fans is going to be irritating. It will never be easy and it’s going to cause a lot of heartburn. And you can’t get the Garmin out and hit “detour” on this trip. Because the Braves got the cheap Garmin with no real bells and whistles (Fredi). The only function it has is a “repeat button” which allows fans to watch the same mistakes over and over and over and HOPE the outcome will be different. So Braves fans, enjoy the rubbernecking when you’re in that traffic jam of the late innings this year. Because the only satisfaction you’ll get about being in said traffic is knowing what caused the jam in the first place. Poor bullpen management and wishing it was 2011 again.

A nice summary of lineup optimization, from “The Book” by Tom Tango, Mitchell Lichtman and Andy Dolphin can be found here: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

With Chipper:

Heyward

Chipper

Uggla

McCann

Freeman

Bourn

Prado

Pastornicky

Without Chipper:

Prado

Heyward

Uggla

McCann

Freeman

Bourn

Francisco/Diaz

Pastornicky

There are two notable differences between the optimal lineups and the lineups the Braves will likely employ this season.  Michael Bourn is hitting sixth in my optimal lineups.  Dan Uggla is hitting third.

Traditionally managers have made sure to put their best fast hitter in the leadoff spot.  Speed is nice, but it’s much more important for the leadoff man to get on base.  Think about it, the leadoff man is naturally going to hit in front of the very best hitters and hitters with power.  Those types of hitters will advance runners rather easily.  There is no need to rely greatly on speed.  A leadoff hitter is going to score on a homerun no matter how fast he is.

Speed is better utilized in front of high-contact, singles hitters.  These hitters usually hit lower in the lineup.  Juan Francisco really doesn’t fit this description but Prado and Diaz fit it perhaps better than any hitters on the team, although Prado has some pop.  But basically it’s somewhat counterproductive to have Bourn’s speed at the top of the order where a runner with just decent speed can advance two or three bases on an extra-base hit from Chipper, Uggla, McCann or Freeman.

Please note I’m not saying Bourn is an awful choice for the leadoff spot.  Bourn is a decent on-base guy and therefore is fine in the leadoff spot.  But this is about lineup optimization.

The other big change I would like to see is Dan Uggla hitting third instead of Freddie Freeman, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann or Jason Heyward.  The number three hitter should have some homerun power but, contrary to convention, the best hitter should not bat third.  The third hitter will typically come up with fewer runners on base than fourth and fifth place hitters.  The best hitters should bat leadoff, second and fourth, with the best power bats hitting lower.

I admit, there is something to be said for keeping players in spots where they are comfortable.  For example, maybe Bourn would see it as a slight if he were moved to the sixth spot.  And frankly the difference a decent lineup would make, in terms of runs scoring, over an optimal lineup isn’t that great, according to most batting-order studies.  Also, why cause the distraction?  If the Braves front office or Fredi Gonzalez decided (or any manager, for that matter) decided to go with a less traditional but more optimal order, it could cause a distraction.  The media and fan base might constantly ask the managers, the players, the GM what they think they are doing.  Again, frankly, it may not be worth the hassle the team would get from the media and fans who haven’t read in-depth studies on batting order optimization.

Twitter: @PayneBall

Now, this doesn’t matter all that much to me.  Baseball offense is all about getting on base/avoiding outs and gaining bases by slugging, good baserunning or both.  As long as Heyward lives up to his potential in the on-base department and posts a respectable slugging percentage while remaining a good baserunner and a good defensive player, that is good enough.  He’ll be an legitimate superstar if he does these things, regardless of counting stats.

So much of racking up counting stats is just getting the opportunity.  A player can be a poor hitter and still hit 30 homers or steal 30 bases if that player isn’t getting on base enough or not slugging all that well.  See Jeff Francoeur, who contrary to popular belief never had any very good seasons in Atlanta, as evident by his on-base and slugging numbers.  He just racked up a lot of RBI because he was in the lineup literally every day for two full seasons, was in a good lineup and pitchers weren’t afraid to walk him and he wasn’t one to take a walk so he got plenty of opportunities to hit.

Nevertheless, the question of whether Jason Heyward has the tools for a 30/30 season is a fun one and allows us to talk about Jason Heyward and his skills.

Let’s get this out of the way first:  I don’t think Heyward’s issues last season were a result of some sort of mental sophomore slump.  Call me naive but I tend to think a major league player’s mental state is the last thing to consider if he performs in a drastically unexpected way, especially when there are other, more obvious issues.  Heyward had injury problems last season and they were well documented.  Major League Baseball is hard.  It’s hard for a 27-year-old with plenty of experience against major league pitching.  It’s even harder for a  22-year-old with relatively limited experience against major league pitching.  It’s that much harder when the 22-year-old is suffering through nagging pain or injury.

I don’t mean to discount the possibility that Heyward’s mental state was affected but, if anything, I think it was affected by not being able to perform well because of injuries.  I seriously doubt his performance had to do with the pressures of performing after the hype of his rookie season.  Plenty were hyping Heyward as the number one or two prospect coming in to the 2010 season and he performed just fine at a very young age.  Not to mention he had been a pretty hyped prospect before that and made it through all the filters of several minor league levels, performing just fine through it all.  I think most major leaguers, by the time they’ve reached the big leagues, are used to the limelight and having to perform with the spotlight on them.  Players who can handle pressure and expectations probably don’t make it through all the benchmarks on the way to becoming a major leaguer.

So I don’t think Heyward has to get over any sort of mental obstacle in order to become a 30/30 player.  One concern for Heyward is injury.  He had some nagging injury issues in the minors, in his first two seasons in the majors and that has always been the red flag for him.  Injuries may not allow him to rack up enough plate appearances to hit 30 homers or, more likely, may not allow him to get enough opportunities to steal 30 bases.

Aside from injury, Heyward’s skill set may not be conducive to 30/30 seasons.  Heyward hits groundballs at a fairly high rate.  Even in his very good 2010 season he was seventh in the majors in groundball percentage.  Groundballs are more likely to become hits but of course have no chance of becoming homers.  (Well, besides that rare grounder down the line that becomes an inside-the-park homerun.)

I suppose Heyward could develop an uppercut in his swing but if he’s productive I’m not sure if he will change drastically.  But it’s very possible that he will to some degree, and will develop more homerun power as a result.  He also could hone his swing in such a way that puts more backspin on the ball and allows it to fly out of the park more often.  I would actually be somewhat shocked if Heyward, given his size, doesn’t have at least a few 30 homerun seasons, even if he’s never a big-time homerun threat.

I see Heyward more as a Chipper Jones type hitter than someone like a Matt Kemp.  Of course I’m not ready to say he’ll have as many consistently great seasons as Chipper.  But I think he’ll be near .300/.400/.500 for the bulk of his prime seasons.  He won’t be the type to put up overwhelming baseball card numbers, batting average, homeruns and RBI.  But, again, I expect a few 30 homer seasons.

It may be a while, however, before Heyward hones his swing and develops his power to such a degree that he hits 30 homeruns.  By the time he is ready to take that leap, his speed may be diminished somewhat and he may not have a chance for 30 steals.  Plus, it’s not clear that he has the type speed for a 30 steal season to begin with.

If he attempted steals often, he could probably steal 30.  However, Heyward seems like a smart baserunner and realizes that there is no reason to attempt steals and risk getting thrown out just to rack up 30 stolen bases.  Plus the industry in general is wiser as to the value of stolen bases versus caught stealing.  Studies suggest that if a player doesn’t steal at at least a 75 percent success rate, he’s probably not helping his team.  So Heyward seems like the type of runner that is going to pick his spots carefully.

So I think a 30/30 season from Heyward is fairly unlikely.  But that doesn’t mean he’ll never be an MVP-caliber player.  I think there is a very distinct possibility that Heyward, given his skill set, will end up being undervalued to some degree or another, which is what makes him fascinating to me.  His skills are not the type that show up in the traditional statistics in an attention-grabbing way.  Most of his value is in his plate discipline and defensive skills.  I don’t think he’ll put up overwhelming power numbers.  He’ll probably hit for a very good average but may not win batting titles.

Plus Heyward has the quiet, calm personality.  He’s not a Kevin Youkilis.  He’s not going to throw helmets or break water coolers when he makes outs.  I could see him becoming a rich man’s J.D. Drew, if you will.  When his batting average isn’t in the .300′s and he doesn’t have 35 homers and 120 RBI, judging by the perception of him so far, there may be a group of fans who accuses him of not playing with passion.  But he’ll be a darling of the sabermetric community.  He’ll draw walks.  He’ll hit for enough power.  He’ll be a solid baserunner.  He’ll play good-to-outstanding defense (the advanced defensive metrics have him as one of the best rightfielders in the game since the beginning of the 2010 season).

Barring injury it’s hard to see Jason Heyward becoming anything less than an extremely valuable big leaguer.  He may not have 30/30 seasons.  All his stats may not look good on the back of a baseball card.  But whether casual fans realize it or not, I suspect he’ll be one of the more valuable players in the game for a long time.

Twitter: @PayneBall

On Friday, some friends and I watched the Yankees start their season against the Rays. In the first inning, Tampa Bay took a 4-0 lead on a monster grand slam. The Yankees fans in the room weren’t really disheartened, and when the Yankees tied the game a few innings later, then took the lead, my friends weren’t even surprised. One of them said, “That’s the good thing about being a Yankees fan. No game is ever out of reach.” (Even though the Yankees lost that game, and were swept, just like the Bravos.) That must be an amazing feeling. On the other hand, any time a team scores a run against the Braves, the rest of the game feels like a lost cause.

Hopefully Chipper’s return and playing some games at home will revitalize the team, but if we continue struggle a lot of the blame is going to be on Fredi Gonzalez. But don’t worry: Fredi has a plan. He hasn’t explicitly outlined this plan for the media, but I can glean the basic points through his actions thus far this year.

First, Fredi has the perfect scheme to prevent another epic end-of-the-season collapse. It’s simple: don’t build a lead. If the team is behind the wild-card contenders by ten games for most of the season, there’s no chance for a collapse. Fredi figures losing the first four games just help put us in position for a comeback.

Another mistake Fredi made last year was overworking the bullpen, especially the “Oventribel” trio. To solve this problem, Fredi uses old, washed up starters as middle-inning relief pitchers in tight, critical situations. So what if they give up a few runs every game? At least our star relievers will be well rested.

Have you ever heard of “muscle confusion?” It’s an exercise theory that says you need to mix up your workout routine to keep your muscles guessing. It’s supposed to make you really strong. Fredi’s adapted this idea, except he calls it “player confusion.” See, he takes players like Pastornicky and Juan Francisco, rookies starving for in-game experience, and sits them for the third game of the season.  And he’ll keep a close eye on Martin Prado to make sure he doesn’t get too comfortable in left field. Starting an inconsistent lineup is a surefire way to keep our players from getting into a pesky groove.

All jokes aside, our bad start can’t be blamed entirely on the manager. Sure, he’s made some mistakes, but the players have also just failed to perform in clutch situations. And our biggest problem, our starting pitchers failing to make it deep into the game, isn’t something Fredi can fix; correcting that problem is the responsibility to the pitching coach and the pitchers themselves. There’s no reason for any radical changes to be made just yet. We’ve only played a handful of games. Let’s take a two-game streak into the home opener and then sweep the Brewers. If we can do that, maybe we can all forget about this season’s miserable beginning.

For the last few years, I’ve railed against our boy Larry. He’s hurt all the time. He’s a prima donna that craves attention. He is our version of Bret Favre, hinting of retirement to get us to love him more. He seems more interested in hunting with Adam LaRoche than baseball. He’s holding the Braves back from making moves to ensure the future success of the club. But I missed the obvious. Chipper is a one in a couple generations type player. He WILL go into the hall of fame.  He’s the best switch hitting player not named Mickey Mantle (Eddie Murray, I still love you). And you can bet money he’ll have a statue outside The Ted in about 5 years.

When Eli Manning of the NY Giants said he was in the same class of Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers and his brother Peyton, people laugh.  So he simply “balled out” and won his second Super Bowl. When Braves fans would wax poetic recently about how great chipper was/is, I would roll my eyes.  Sure, he’s really good.  But come on people, he’s no Jose Constanza! Boy oh boy, what a fool I’ve been. I feel like I asked Bobby Petrino for a ride home on the back of his motorcycle. Chipper is proving to anybody and everybody that he IS the best player on this team, the last link to the Braves’ glory days, one of the signature talents in MLB and the catalyst for winning baseball in Atlanta.

Man, I’ve been SO wrong. When Smoltz was in his last few years with the Braves, you could tell he was kinda mailing it in. The only thing he cared about was golfing, thinking about golf, lowering his golf score, Tiger Woods and golf…you get the point.  But in all seriousness, Chipper doesn’t do that stuff. He talks about winning, playing and succeeding. He DOES pull the “hey, I can’t live forever” type drama that all aging players do.  But maybe it’s because he wants us to appreciate him. Make sure Braves fans still love him, respect him and that we’ll reflect on what he’s meant to this club. Maybe Chipper is that crazy uncle that says, “Kid, you’ll miss me when I’m gone”.

Well, Uncle Larry, we WILL miss you. I’m not a 9 year old. I don’t have poster of Chipper in my room, although my wife HATES the Pussycat Dolls poster I have up. I don’t own a Chipper jersey or anything like that. My favorite Brave of all time is Dale Murphy, followed closely by Bob Horner.  But since I’m Chipper’s age, I DO appreciate what he’s done and what he’s doing. He’s 40 years old and he’s the best Atlanta’s got.  Better then Jason Heyward. Better than Craig Kimbrell. Better than…wait for it…wait for it…Jose Constanza! Chipper is simply the best and I won’t doubt him again. Isn’t that right, Pussycat Dolls?

1) The Braves will be a 500 team against the Phillies. The Phils are getting a lot of love, and many analysts are picking them to repeat as NL East champs. However, they have some issues to sort out, mainly how to fill the middle of their lineup while Utley and Howard are injured. Hopefully, by the first meeting between these two clubs on the first of May, the Braves will be in tip-top shape, whereas those two Philly stars might not be 100% for the entire season. I’m not saying that the Braves will finish ahead of the Phillies in the standings, just that they will split their head-to-head matchups.

2) Tommy Hanson will win 20 games. He’s got a new delivery that is designed to relieve shoulder stress, which should allow him to pitch more innings and stay off the DL. And in his last start, he unveiled a powerful sinker that can really add depth to his arsenal. I expect Hanson to be revitalized in 2012. The Braves haven’t had a twenty game winner since (drum roll please) Russ Ortiz went 21-7 way back in 2003, but if O’Flaherty, Venters, and Kimbrel can close out games the way they did last year, all Hanson will need to rack up the wins is a little run support. Is that too much to ask for? Wait. Don’t answer that.

3) Jason Heyward will not hit a homerun in his first at-bat. This may not seem like a bold prediction, but if you’ve watched our last two opening day games, you know J-Hey has hit homeruns in 100% of his season opening at-bats. He won’t homer in his first look this year, but he’ll have a more balanced, successful season at the dish.

4) Livan Hernandez will have a stint on the DL this season. The 16-season veteran has never been on the DL. Also, he’s never played for the Braves. I think signing him was a good move, because it cost less than a million bucks, and keeping a veteran around a clubhouse full of young pitchers is never a bad idea. However, Atlanta seems to be infested with the injury bug, and I won’t be surprised to see it take a bite out of Livan.

5) Chipper Jones will hit 30 homeruns. I know, I know, he’s a fragile old man. Fans cringe every time he bends over to tie his cleats. But here’s what I think: as long as he doesn’t rush his return from the meniscus tear, and he gets enough scheduled days off to stay well rested, Chipper will provide the bleachers with plenty of souvenir balls. As I’m sure Chipper knows, the long ball comes with an added advantage: you don’t have to run so fast around the bases.

6) The Nationals will pose a bigger threat than the Marlins. The Marlins have a new city, some cool new hats, and the added talents of Jose Reyes, but the Nats are improving as well, even if it’s under the radar. Their rotation is pretty solid, led by Strasburg and Gino Gonzalez. Plus, I can’t imagine Jayson Werth batting .232 with 58 RBIs again.

7) The National League will win the All-Star Game for the third consecutive year. I’m sure you all remember Brian McCann’s three-run double in the 2010 all-star game. That game ended a huge winning streak for the AL, and now the NL is going to build a streak of its own.

8.) Mike Minor will be a strong 4th starter. I’m not going to venture any guesses as to an ERA or wins, but Minor will be an asset to the team. He’s super confident, and I expect that confidence to transfer to success on the mound. This season is his chance to prove his worth, and he knows it.

9) Larry Parrish will not be Atlanta’s hitting coach. Okay, this is just a fact, but I’m so happy about it. I feel like we paid Larry Parrish to put his feet up and watch our offense drown last year. Hopefully Greg Walker (our new hitting coach) will give our bats some mouth-to-mouth resuscitation. Figuratively speaking, of course.

10) Juan Francisco will have an immediate impact. Chipper Jones will probably play between 100 and 125 games this season, leaving plenty of action for Atlanta’s new backup 3rd basemen. The report on Francisco is that he’s a free swinger and that he hits with power, which, if nothing else, sounds really exciting. Look for him to impress crowds and intimidate pitchers with a few deep homers.

11) Brian McCann will win a fifth consecutive Silver Slugger. And if that’s not bold enough, when he retires he’ll have broken Mike Pizza’s record for most Silver Sluggers as a catcher (10), even if he doesn’t do it all with the Bravos.

12) The Braves will win 94 games. It will take a lot of one-run wins, production from bench players like Eric Hinske, and good pitching in tight spots from our bullpen, but they can do it. Will that be enough to make the playoffs? I think so, even if it is only the extra wild card spot.

Have some bold predictions of your own? Leave them in the comments, and feel free to follow me on Twitter @thomasmduncan.

WE are the ones saving our money and buying the tickets.  WE are the ones staying up until 1am to watch West Coast games.  The FANS are the ones living and dying with every game, buying the apparel and merchandise, teaching our kids the Tomahawk chop and imitating Skip Cary for the hell of it during the work day.  Dale Murphy doesn’t play in Atlanta anymore.  David Justice went to Cleveland.  Hell, Tom Glavine played for the Mets!  But the constant is you.  And me.  And your buddy.  Your Uncle, Aunt and 2^nd Cousin twice removed.   When spring training comes around, we won’t know if Martin Prado will be a Brave.  Will Chipper Jones play 120 games?  Not sure about that.  Who will be the Braves ace?  Don’t know.  But one thing IS for certain.  WE WILL be there.  WE will scour the schedule and see what games we want to go to.  We will check with our parents to see if they can watch the kids on a Tuesday so we can get to the Ted.  We will see when the “businessman’s specials” are and think about how we can skip out to go see the home team play.  We’ll dust off our Braves jerseys, hats, window stickers and the rest.  We’ll dress our daughters in pink Braves gear and slip the #22 Heyward toddler jersey on our son’s back.  WE.  Not them. 

LeBron James summed it up best when he told anti-Heat fans that he’d be ok and they would have to go back to their miserable lives…or something to that affect.  And you know something, he’s right.  Losing hurts, but if you have a 2 million dollar house, 4 Lexus sedans and a pool the shape of your face, it may not hurt so much.  But when you’re a “9 to 5’er”, your boss yells at you, your car breaks down and you’re just having a lousy day, losing stinks EVEN more.  Isn’t tomorrow a bit more fun when your team wins?  It’s a return on your emotional/financial/communal investment.  It’s like raising a child.  You put in ALL the hard work and when you get that one unsolicited “I love you”, it’s so worth it.

I know it’s silly.  It’s just a game and we should all have much more important things to concern ourselves with.  But isn’t that the whole point?  It IS just a game.  It’s an escape from our problems, our angst, our worries and alike.  It takes us from the real life we live to our past life as a child.  When you had sports heroes, you rooted for the home team and you shared that fun/passion with your friends and family.  No one wants to talk politics or religion anymore.  It stinks and it doesn’t get you anywhere.  But sports!  It’s fun and mostly harmless.  WE are going to stomp you this weekend!  No you’re not, WE are going to stomp you!  Sports give us the pride we may not be able to achieve anyplace else in life.  It’s the one place where as long as you jump on board and NEVER get off, you have a team for life.  And their success can be your reason for celebration.  So say WE all you want!  What’s it hurting?  Nothing.  What’s it helping?  Your soul.  Happy Holidays!

If you want more of my shenanigans during the week, follow me on Twitter @yourdailyvinnie.  Thanks!

With the Fall Classic around the corner and the weather getting cooler here in the South, school is in full swing as well.  And one of the things all kids look forward to with school is yearbooks.  Getting your picture taken, hoping all your “besties” will write super long notes in the back pages of your book, thumbing through the candid shots to see how many you’re in and of course, Senior Superlatives.  I think every high school kid secretly hopes and prays to get one of these awards in the yearbook.  Even the ultra reclusive, non-fiction reading, 10,000 Maniacs listening, aloof, ponytail/uni-cycle guy in your English class secretly wants to be “best all around” or “cutest”.

So I’ve heard the Atlanta Braves yearbook is out now.  And the guys are passing them around the clubhouse getting everyone to sign them before they leave for the year.  Why don’t we take a peek and see who won some of those coveted superlatives?

Best All Around – Dan Uggla.  I know, I know.  How can a guy with a .233 average be best all around?  But that’s just it…best ALL AROUND.  You know I’m not a SABR guy.  I’m a perception guy.  And my perception is that without Uggla, the Braves don’t sniff the WildCard.  His defense is severely underrated and without his play during and after his hitting streak, the Braves don’t have a chance to have their infamous collapse.

Class Clown – Peter Moylan.  He gets the vote for two reasons.  One, he supposedly is a great clubhouse guy, funny guy, twitter guy and for some reason every Braves fan loves him.  I like him fine.  But reason #2 he gets this vote is because he “clowned” all of you Braves fans into thinking he was an important piece to the puzzle.  This is not a slam on the guy.  But I’m trying to figure out how a guy who really hasn’t played much recently and really only had one decent season with the club is SO vital to its success.  He’s a sidearm middle reliever.  Not Billy Wagner.

Smartest – Larry Parrish, former hitting coach.  This cat has to be the smartest guy in MLB, period.  He gets hired to be a hitting coach, gets paid to be a hitting coach, even gets a uniform.  Then he does absolutely nothing to improve the team’s hitting.  I’m not sure I’ve ever even heard him interviewed this year to be held accountable for the team’s shortcomings.  His philosophy was to be free swinging and see what happens.  Yea…what happens sucks, Larry.  Honorable mention goes to Kenshin Kawakami.  He got PAID big time to hang out in Gwinnett and eat funnel cakes at Coolray Field all summer.  Pretty darn smart if you ask me.

Cutest Couple – Eric, O’Flaherty, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel.  These guys were absolutely great this season.  Anybody who blames Kimbrel for the last game loss to Philly is a Jose Reyes…umm…I mean…a sub human, no account jerk.   The guys were used more than the smoosh room on “Jersey Shore”.  Every time the Braves were up by 4/5/27 runs…I never understood why the lesser bullpen mates weren’t brought in to save these guy’s arms.  But what do I know?  Oh that’s right.  Even I know that’s stupid.

Most Likely to Succeed – Freddie Freeman.  This is the one category where I could have put 4 different Braves.  I even thought I’d put Jose Constanza as the winner.  But then I remembered, according to some of you, he was already the Dominican Mickey Mantle and was packing for Cooperstown as we speak.  His greatness transcends a silly high school superlative.  Give me a break.  He’ll be installing windows with Chuck James next year.  Back to Freeman.  This kid was everything we could have hoped for.  And his stats back up the perception that he’s the new BMOC.  And while Chipper Jones is still the ultimate Braves on this team, Freddie may well be the best Atlanta has to offer for the next 10 years.

Most Likely to Tip his Cap – Fredi Gonzalez.  Enough said.

Mr. Atlanta Braves – Chipper Jones.  Ok, most of you know that while I think Chipper is great, he has some MAJOR leadership flaws and is not the greatest face of a franchise I’ve ever seen.  But you know what, I’m warming up to an idea.  This guy is truly the greatest Atlanta Brave there’s ever been and it would be nearly impossible to have a player better than him.  Also, I’m starting to realize he is a much more effective leader than most give him credit for.  When they show those dugout meeting he holds, every player is riveted to Chipper.  And he may be the second greatest switch hitter in baseball history.  So while he REALLY needs to work on strengthening his oblique this off-season, my apologies to Chipper.  If 2012 is his last year, Braves fans will see one last year of the greatest Atlanta sports “idol” the city ever had to offer.

Some superlatives I left off like, “Most Awesome Player Ever”.   Eric Hinske wins that in a run away and everybody should know that.  “Most Likely to Screw Himself into the Ground While Striking Out” was left off as both Alex Gonzalez and Martin Prado were in a dead heat to win that award. “Most Likely to be Working at Olive Garden Next Season” was a three way tie between Scott Linbrink, George Sherrill and Scott Proctor.  These three make Manny Acosta or Blayne Boyer look like world beaters.  And “Most Likely to be Better at Drag Racing Drunk than Throwing a Ball Over a White Plate” goes to Derek Lowe. Too bad we’ll see him again next year.

So Braves Fans, thanks a bunch for putting up with me and reading my blogs.  I’ll be writing over the winter break and getting ready for the 2012 season.  I hope we have some classes together!

If you want more of my shenanigans during the week, follow me on Twitter @yourdailyvinnie.  Thanks!

I don’t need to say how wrong I was. I don’t need to get into stats, or how big of a lead they had on what day. I don’t need to get in to who’s at fault or who’s to blame, because I really don’t care. The bottom line is it happened. Now, we deal with it.  Bad to worse.

It’s hard to describe how I feel at this exact moment. I’m not mad. I’m not depressed. The best way to describe my feeling is to have you picture yourself walking into a room with your parents having sex, then you realize—hey, that’s not my dad!

I won’t get too down though. Baseball is supposed to be fun. When taken too seriously (like I have in the past, trust me) it takes most or all of the fun out of it and if it’s not fun, what the point? I’m not 10 years old anymore. I don’t wake up, put on my cap and go outside and wait for another kid so we can start a pick up ball game. Now, I wake up and try not to bet too pissed off that I’m actually awake, shower and go to work.

One of the only things that gets me through the day (during the summer) is that I know the Braves are going to play that night.  I just need to get through eight hours of people grumbling at me and I’ll be listening to Chip and Joe call a Braves game. I can appreciate baseball for what it is—a break from real life. Baseball is the National Pastime and we need to treat it like that. Watching baseball is a luxury, not a job.

Now that the season is over, I can look back and say it was a pretty damn good year for the Braves. We saw the best rookie season ever for a closer. Craig Kimbrel is the NL Rookie of the Year and his teammate Freddie Freeman is a close runner up. No one else is close to them. We watched in amazement as Dan Uggla carried the Braves for two months, while putting an end to all the naysayers who got on him for his dreadful start. We watched Jair Jurrjens begin the season as the best pitcher in the league and got a good look (more than we should have) at the Braves ‘Fab Four’ pitchers in action.

Randall Delgado is the real deal. He pitched phenomenal down the stretch and made one of the most important starts of the year, though the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead. Mike Minor showed why every team at the trade deadline wanted him and why Frank Wren wouldn’t move him for anyone. Arodys Vizcaino was throwing gas out of the bullpen and has a devastating breaking-ball. We probably saw the least out of Julio Teheran than the others, yet he is their #1 guy and deservedly so. He went 15-3 2.55 ERA 122 K at AAA Gwinnett and was named pitcher of the year. He is going to be a top of the rotation guy for the Braves very soon.

As I get older life goes by faster and faster. Each season seems to go by in the blink of an eye—and it’s not going to get any better. Time is my enemy. It seems like the season started last week. I swear I was just listening to Spring Training games on my iPhone, getting more and more excited as the snow melted and hoping this year would be “the year.” The next thing I knew it was the All-Star break and now it’s nearly October and college football is in full swing.

There is an old saying that everything good eventually comes to an end. A great Braves season is no different. It was a great ride and I don’t regret being a die-hard fan for one moment. I had a great time watching this year, and 2012 should bring more of the same. It will mostly likely be the last season we watch Chipper Jones play. Here’s to the Hollywood ending for #10 that I ‘know” will happen…

My name is Matt and I am a Braves fanatic.

The End.

So let’s look at these so-called under achieving Atlanta Braves.  We won’t go back 20 years to 1991.  That’s when the Braves began taking shape as an organization dedicated to competing for a title every year.  We’ll only go back to 1994; the first year of the current NL East (not really, since because of the strike, of 1994 nobody won jack, and 1995 is actually the first year of titles).  This also allows us to compare apples to apples by viewing the NL East in its current form of the Phillies, Nationals (Expos), Marlins, Mets and Braves which began in 1994.  Let’s look at the numbers of NL East Titles.

NL East Titles since 1994

Washington Nationals/ Montreal Expos – 0

Florida Marlins – 0

New York Mets – 1 (2006)

Philadelphia Phillies – 5 (2007-2011)

Atlanta Braves – 11 (1995-2005)

Now let’s check Wildcard titles.

NL Wildcard Titles since 1994

Nats/Expos – 0

Marlins – 2 (1997, 2003)

Mets – 2 (1999, 2000)

Phillies – 0

Braves – 2 (2010 and PLEASE 2011)

Now, how about National League pennants?

NL Pennants since 1994

Nats/Expos – 0

Marlins – 2 (1997, 2003)

Mets – 1 (2000)

Phillies – 2 (2008, 2009)

Braves – 3 (1995, 1996, 1999)

And now, what matter most to all the SNE and other detractors of the hometown Atlanta Braves…World Series Titles.

WS Titles since 1994

Nats/Expos – 0

Marlins – 2 (1997, 2003)

Mets – 0

Phillies – 1 (2008)

Braves – 1 (1995)

First let me say this is pretty impressive.  For a division (in a league of 6 divisions) to produce 4 WS Champions in the last 17 years is not too shabby.  Considering the press of the Northeast would have you believe no real baseball is played south or west of the Philly train station.  Secondly, if you’re JUST looking at titles, the Marlins are the best of the NL East.  Florida has the same number of WS Championships as Boston and MORE than Philly in the last 30 years.

Ok, now let’s really get dirty.  We’ll give 1 point for WC Winners, 2 points for division titles, 3 points for NL titles and 4 points for WS titles.  Here’s how the NL East ranks:

5.  Washington/Montreal = 0 pts

4.  New York = 7 pts

3.  Florida = 16 pts

3. Phillies = 20 pts

1.  Atlanta = 34 pts

Wow!  For an underachieving, sorry, no good, crummy team like the Braves and a city with horrible, stupid, back water, non-savvy fans…this doesn’t look too bad.  I know what some would say.  Yes, they COULD have won more.  The Braves SHOULD have won more.  But what’s funny to me is how negative it ALWAYS is toward the Braves with their success.  The Buffalo Bills went to 4 straight Super Bowls and lost ALL of them.  But Jim Kelly and crew are celebrated nationally.  The Philadelphia Eagles went to 4 straight NFC Championship games and lost 3.  And they lost the Super Bowl the one time they did manage to win the NFC.  And they aren’t killed as an organization.  The city and press just decided to pin all the short comings on consummate good guy Donavan McNabb and ship his tail out of the city for Mike Vick.  That tells you all you need to know about that place.  City of Brotherly Love….whatever.

I think the attitude about the Braves is a systemic problem that all non-Southerners have about us (especially people from the Northeast).  They can’t grasp that we didn’t have the Braves (or ANY team) in 1918 like Chicago, New York, Boston and Philly did.  We don’t have generations of fans yet like they do.  We didn’t have a winning tradition for decades like they did.  But yet Atlanta can boast more success than some of them over the last 20 years.  But Braves fans and its organization fight the perception that all Southerners do in life.  That our achievements are just luck.  That we’re too stupid and unsophisticated to have achieved on our own.  That only with the help of the ultra refined, highly educated Carpetbagger can anything in the South be successful.  Yes, we Yankee Carpetbaggers will marry the South’s pretty women and live in its awesome weather, educated our kids in its schools and eat all its awesome food…but you Huckleberries are still pretty dumb.  Just shut up and let us win at baseball.  What do “youz guys” know about baseball?

So I say all that to say this.  The Braves may end up losing this year.  We may not even make the playoffs.  But be PROUD Atlanta Braves nation!  We have a team that competes EVERY year.  Ignore what everyone else says…GO BRAVES!!!

If you want more of my shenanigans during the week, follow me on Twitter @yourdailyvinnie.  Thanks!

Sure, the Braves still hold a 3.5 game lead in the Wild Card, but the way they have been playing of late is like being the prettiest waitress at a Denny’s.  Sure you’ll get better tips than the rest of the girls, but the big picture is bleak.  You work at a Denny’s.  If the Braves were my waitress right now, I’d ask to see a manager and I certainly wouldn’t leave 20%.  If they don’t pull themselves together soon, they may just be working at Denny’s for a long time and by working at Denny’s I mean losing out to losers like the Mets.  This limp to the finish line isn’t going to impress many people and not going to get them far IF they make the playoffs.

The Braves have three series left this season and there’s really no reason they can’t get the job done. Or, should I say, they SHOULD get the job done. They will have to face their nemesis one more time this season and it may determine if they make the playoffs; and no, I’m NOT talking about the Phillies.

They start off with three games in Florida against a team they have owned this year—of course the Braves will face the Marlins’ best pitchers (Nolasco, Sanchez and Vazquez). It will be the last time the Braves play the Florida Marlins (as they will become the Miami Marlins) and the last time at Sun Life? Stadium. I will kind of miss tuning in to see the 12 fans in the stadium on a given night.

The Braves travel to Washington D.C next and play at team that owns them. It doesn’t seem to matter where the game is played, or who is playing for either team—the Nats simply own the Braves. It looks like we will see the bionic arm of Stephen Strasburg next weekend. My only solace is that he hasn’t been pitching deep in games (and probably won’t this year).

The Braves finish the year against the Phillies, who have nothing to play for except to spoil the Braves shot at a playoff berth. I would imagine the Phillies will rest some of the regular players and will set their pitching rotation, so the Braves may luck out and miss Halladay and Lee. Or at least I pray they do!

Be careful what you wish for; that’s something I seem to be saying to myself more and more. A few weeks ago I was worried that the Braves had such a big lead in the Wild Card that they would go into the playoffs without playing a meaningful game for 2 weeks. Now, I just want them to get there. I’m telling myself that maybe it’s good they are slumping now. They are too good to keep playing this poorly for a whole month, so when the NLDS comes around they will heat up and make a run at the whole thing. Whatever gets you through the day, right?

Brian McCann can’t keep slumping. Martin Prado’s average can’t keep going lower and lower. Jonny Venters can’t walk every batter he faces and Derek Lowe can’t let in 6 runs every start. OK, Maybe the Lowe thing can happen, but it can’t keep going this way for the Braves. It just can’t! They will win these last three series and they will make the playoffs. No more will the Braves be serving Grand Slam Breakfasts to truckers in spaghetti stained wife beaters. The Braves are going all the way!

Follow me on Twitter @BRAVEinNY.

But there’s one scene at the end where Jim Brown is throwing grenades into storm drains and trying to run to safety.  Right when he’s about to be free and clear, he’s shot in the back and killed by one of the Nazi soldiers.  DAMN!  Every time I watch DD and see that scene, I think, THIS will be the one time where Jim Brown makes it.  Where he lives and gets to go home.  But it never happens.  It’s always the same ending.  I think y’all know where I’m going with this.

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve felt the same way when I watch a Braves game.  Atlanta has a lead, bases loaded with no outs, O’Ventabrel about to pitch, McCann at the plate or a grounder out to the mound.  Any of these scenarios earlier in the season would give Braves fans something to be happy and cheer about.  But now we all wait for the other shoe to drop.  We dread seeing the Braves #6 hitter come up with runners in scoring position.  We wring our hands as Venters comes in to pitch in the 8^th inning to a dirty Nazi…um…I mean…Shane Victorino or anyone on the Washington Nationals.  It’s not fun to watch and we all end up getting shot in the proverbial back.  And when the Braves magic number has been the same for about 12 days, it doesn’t give any Atlanta fan too much hope for the playoffs or World Series.

BUT!!!  There’s another movie to consider as well.  There was once a young man who didn’t know his parents.  He possessed great power, but didn’t know it.  He was befriended by a “crazy old man” who lived out in the desert.  The man taught him the ways of his power and how to use it.  They took off on an adventure to help save a rebel leader and destroy a symbol of pure evil.  That’s RIGHT!  Star Wars, Episode IV (I think Empire Strikes Back is the best, but New Hope was the first and my parents took me to see it at a drive in, so I have fond memories of it).

Luke Skywalker uses his new powers to save Lea, escape Jose Reyes (I mean Darth Vader) and blow up the Death Star.  He closes his eyes and destroys the Death Star with one shot; just like at home with his T-16 shooting womp rats.  So Braves fans…hold on to HOPE!  We just need one player to be our Han Solo, when he shoots Vader’s Tie Fighter and clears the way for Luke’s one single shot.  One guy to clear the way for that play to win it all.  One timely hit, pitch, out or HR.  So as Han Solo might say:

You’re all clear kid!  Now let’s blow this thing and go home! I hope the Braves take that single shot and hit the bull’s-eye.  Because if not, instead of celebrating with all the Rebel Alliance…we’ll be hanging with Jim Brown.  And nobody wants that.

If you want more of my shenanigans during the week, follow me on Twitter @yourdailyvinnie.  Thanks!

The good news is that unless the Braves have a Met-like collapse in the next three weeks, they are going to be in the playoffs. In fact, most of baseball is already decided. We are just waiting on the Rangers/Angels race to see who is going to lose to the Yankees in the first round.

This being said, the Braves have six more series to get ready for the Milwaukee Brewers. They have their roster expanded for September, so Fredi has the luxury of resting some guys down the stretch. Now, there is a lot of debate whether it’s better to go in to the playoffs with a  big lead and everyone is well-rested, or if it’s better to be like the 2010 Giants and have a do-or-die game every day and sneak into the playoffs on the last day. I don’t think we will ever know the true answer, but If I were Fredi…

…I would rest my starting pitchers the 3^rd week of September; especially Brandon Beachy. Jair Jurrjens is already out for 2 weeks resting his sore knee and Tommy Hanson has also been out for weeks. Hanson is feeling much better according to the reports and is close to returning; I’d keep him out another week. Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson are horses, but let’s face it they aren’t getting any younger. It wouldn’t hurt to give them a little rest too.

The Braves have four stud pitching prospects in Minor, Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino (who is in the bullpen the rest of the year).  Why not use these guys for the next couple weeks? See what they have. I know Fredi has done this the past week, but it is more because everyone is hurt. Let’s see what these guys can do when given a few starts in a row.

…I would rest Freddie Freeman for at least a week. He seemed to re-aggravate his leg injury on a stretch in Philadelphia this week and I wouldn’t want to take any chances of him being banged up for the playoffs; he is way too important.

…I would get Eric Hinske, Matt Diaz, Brooks Conrad, David Ross and Jack Wilson in as many games as possible. These guys are going to be vital coming off the bench and the more at-bats they can get now, the better. They need to be ready to come off the bench in a big spot and getting them in the games now is the best way to prepare them. This will give the regulars like Dan Uggla, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, B-Mac (it helps having the best backup in the majors) and the aforementioned Freddie Freeman some much needed rest.

…I would sit out Alex Gonzalez as much as possible over the next few weeks, if for nothing else than to cut down on the double plays. Sure, he is a great defensive player, but so is Jack Wilson. He has more Web Gems than Gonzalez since 2008 (I just made that up, but it seems right) and he can’t be any worse at the plate.

…I would rest Jonny Venters more than normal. He has given up runs in his last three games—now I know that he is human and it will happen from time to time, but he just doesn’t look like himself recently. I would however keep pitching Craig Kimbrel, if for nothing else than to get me some much needed saves in my big-money fantasy league.

…Lastly, I would do everything I could to beat the hell out of the Phillies those last three games of the year. I know the Phillies are probably going to have their Lehigh Valley roster in the games, but it would be a nice way to enter the playoffs and kind of stick it to them before (HOPEFULLY) a rematch in the NLCS.

Obscure Brave of the Week: Kevin McGlinchy.

Kevin McGlinchy was a relief pitcher with the Braves from 1999-2000. He was drafted by the Braves in the 5^th round of the 1995 Draft. He made it into 64 games in 1999 and pitched pretty well going 7-3 2.82 ERA 67 K. He pitched in only 10 games for the Braves in 2000.

McGlinchy may be best known for giving up the Grand Slam Single to Robin Ventura in the 1999 NLDS. I still get sick thinking about that game…

McGlinchy went to the Devil Rays after the Braves, but never really pitched in the majors again. He played some Independent League baseball with the Long Island Ducks and Nashua Pride for a bit.

He is currently living back in the Boston area. One of my co-workers’ told me he works with his dad—I can’t tell you exactly what he does because that would require me to go and talk to one of my co-workers. You know how that is…

Follow me on Twitter @BRAVEinNY.

Until Next time… Go Braves!

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