Mara, TS3 is excellent. I almost rated it ahead of Toy Story, but that seemed wrong. Keep in mind that I regard everything from Nemo upward as a masterpiece. I’m a complete Pixar fanboy. It’s really splitting hairs. Even Cars, which I think a little less of, is all over my house (I never grew up, but you knew this) … lamps, toy cars, etc.
Curt, agreed on Bird’s Iron Giant. It may be his name on the Rat flick that bumps it so high. No, no, I just love it. The colors in that one. And the french music. That scene in the fog when he’s supposed to kill the rat is the best looking Pixar scene in the canon to me.
Will, the Rockmire clip cracks me up every time. Kind of bad that I think of his version of “take me out…” most times I hear the song now.
Rough day at the ballyard. I’m not worried about Tommy, though. He was finding his rhythm again when the bloops and bad calls blew him up. He’s going to be fine. I hate that we’re up against it tomorrow in the standings with Strasburg, but losing first place and then regaining it again will put the Braves in a better place psychologically.
I know some of you are looking for a new pair of pants because you didn’t listen to me… Others KNOW what those numbers mean… Strikeouts are up, walks are down, HR difference is COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE, as with HR per FB…
The REAL difference in Hanson this year from last year is his BABIP (which people love to quote)… Last year his BABIP was .280, which is just a little below the league average… This year, it’s .334… BUT, do you know what his EXCPECTED BABIP is based on FB%, GB%, and LD%??? His expected BABIP is .226, but what he’s got through before today’s start was a .334… Some of you know that means he’s been ABSURDLY unlucky… To a ridiculous degree… Here’s how you would calculate what his expected BABIP would be:
His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and his expected BABIP show that Tommy is just getting some rough breaks right now… His numbers suggest that he could be in for a good 2nd half (regression to the mean), because the numbers, the important ones (please not that there is no W-L record up there) show that his numbers are EXACTLY the same as last year, and in most cases a little bit better…
Compare Hanson’s FIP to some other pitchers this year and see for yourself:
Tommy Hanson 3.48 / Adam Wainwright 3.15 / Felix Hernandez 3.38 / Matt Cain 3.65 / Justin Verlander 3.40
Calm down bridge jumpers… Hanson will be fine, which is more than I can say for some of the bipolars here
Here’s another you left off: 4.50 ERA. The guy gave up like 14 runs in 7 innings this week man. Maybe that’s the reason for the latest tweet on the ABT page and me asking what has happened to Tommy Hanson. I like Hanson a lot. He’s like 23 or 24 with loads of talent, but he’s been really inconsistent this year. He’ll have a start like he did against TB and a few others where he’s dominant, but he’s also had a few like today, the White Sox game, and the Reds game. You can stat boy it up to make him look great all you want, but that only makes me think that maybe your the one who needs to calm down. 7-5, 4.50 ERA. Decent numbers. Not yet an ace.
Sorry, I misread, I guess “howie 1987″ went stat crazy. I might feel bad if I knew what half of those meant. I typically look at win-loss, ERA, and WHIP. I’m sure Tommy will be fine, but this week has been very forgettable for him.
For the record, I’m pretty sure I’ve never said Tommy Hanson has arrived at Acedom. When Steve(?) chose him over Heyward to build a club around, I mentioned that Tommy’s still good for some rough outings, and perhaps his pitches are being tipped. Even if you subtract his three terrible outings, he doesn’t get deep enough in the game to be called an Ace by me.
But howie’s post is a decent argument for his bad luck and probably recovery to his not-Acelike-but-very-good form.
Far enough, I think you’re on to something with him tipping his pitches. He becomes very predictable late in the count. I think Hanson’s age and inexperience are the biggest factors in his struggles. He had a great 3rd inning when he was aggressive with his fastball and used that good slider as a strikeout pitch. I don’t know what was going on after that. Either they picked up on something or he was missing his spots. It’s not like he got crushed in the terrible outings today and against the Reds. He gave up too many walks and like 8 or 9 singles. When guys are getting singles in a lot of 2 strike counts, it makes me think they’re sitting on a pitch that they know he’s going to throw in that situation. All of those teams that have hit him this year have very good coaches who really understand hitting and the way a pitcher is going to work.
I’m feeling very optimistic about the next 12 games. It will be a great opportunity to get back to fixing the record against the NL East. We get the Nats and Fish at home before the Phils and Mets on the road. I’m thinking we’re gonna have a good week and pick up some momentum with JJ coming back before we go to Philly and NY. Great time to gain some games on the other teams before the break. Go Braves.