lol at “yeah, but he (Giles) took a bunch of steroids” in a calm, earnest voice.
Foul on trading Prado for Uggla, but it’s close. We really, REALLY need power. But thank goodness it didn’t come down to that.
Foul on locking up Uggla at that super high price. Fair on 12 X 5. Barely. His 36-year-old season would scare me. Without his power, he’d be yuckville.
Fair on grabbing Uggla even if just for a year. Infante was the same one year.
And if we lose him, we’re back to squares: needing a LF, with a year less of Lowe’s and Chipper’s contracts. A no-brainer move.
Great show! DANNNNNNN UGGGGLLLLAAAAAAA!!!!!
Foul on “Fuggla” though. When he boots it, it should be “Dan Struggla”
Ryan Howard 43
Chase Utley 26
Dom Brown 26
Total from starting 8: 163
Now, James is usually optimistic, and I’ll believe McLouth is worth 15 homers when pigs fly, but he’s also optimistic on Howard, who I believe will hit around 35 as his epic power takes its first we-pay-him-WHAT slide.
In any case, if Atlanta closes the gap to 17 homers less than Philly (from the starters), considering the ballparks, I think we’ll be neck and neck with the boys from PA.
Listening to the show, writing this comment, while cooking traditional Creme Brulee French Toast for the Rev’s fam cause that’s how I roll. First of all, thanks for the HP World commercial. I was wondering about it and appreciated the details so i guess this is the opposite of hate mail.
Prado = heart and soul of our team this year AND last year. Even without Dunn I would give up baseball forever had they traded Meadow.
Steve, how sad the next time ABT gets together for a game I won’t get to cheer, “OH Infante!” You’ll miss that…I know you will.
I’m wondering how much we owe Charlie Manuel for this deal. How much better does Omar’s resume look being an all star?
Would Glaus (as in Gloss…as in high shine) be better off the bench? If his legs aren’t tired could he be our home run hitting pinch hitter?
I hope you don’t have too many listeners who don’t read the board cause Hammy’s desire to spank Steve could be disturbing to some.
Great show! Spring Training seems like a looooooooong time.:(
Curt, I agree about Brown’s numbers, but I’m not putting much stock in his ugly beginning as I am his AAA track record. Same with Freeman, and it looks like Bill James agrees.
I’ve heard it said that the way to utilize Bill James’ numbers is not to compare them to actual outcomes, but to other Bill James numbers for other teams, etc. Don’t know how much truth is in that, but that’s why I put them next to Phillies’ predictions rather than just tossing them out there.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. I hope it’s a great day with family and friends.
I saw HP7 today. It was tremendously good. A very good translation from the book of the desperation and epic life and death tone. I’m already sick about having to wait until next summer for part 2. Has anyone else seen it yet?
Not that you asked me, but when the dance scene started, I thought I had found my favorite moment in the whole series. But I didn’t think it was a romance at all (while it was going on). I thought for thirty seconds I was seeing one of the greatest Platonic love moments in film history.
But then, instead of doing the sensible thing and fading out of that scene with the music playing, they contrived that awkward moment at the end to make it look like an aborted romance instead of the lovely brother/sister dance in the middle of all that darkness/ anxiety. I’ll watch it again on DVD and see if the awkwardness washes away, but for now it was like having the rug jerked out from under me.
I thought the dance scene did portray the brother/ sister relationship between Hermione and Harry. I also thought it left an awkward feeling at the end but felt it was intentional with purpose. To me it felt like Harry was doing everything he could to cheer and comfort his friend but in the end he realized nothing but Won Won could fill the void. Great movie. I did close my eyes during the snake scenes.
On one hand I liked the dance scene and got all of the brother/sister platonic love stuff. And thought it completely worked but… I think I brought all my context from reading the books to that scene to clarify the murkiness. And I think it’s even more murky given it coming 15 minutes before Ron faces off with the Horcrux and Voldemort using Ron’s jealously as a weapon against him.
That said, I’m really picking nits here as I absolutely loved the hell out of the movie.
More movie stuff. Rented Kick Ass this weekend. Loved it even more than I anticipated. So smart and non-formulaic (in many ways) and fun and satisfying. Could not have enjoyed it more.
Haha…at first I thought you were saying Hisssss and forgot the extra ‘s’. Steve, I see your point. I guess I’m not capable of watching a movie without thinking of the book it portrays. I’m all inclusive when it comes to knowledge I’ve absorbed. Anywho, anybody get any good Black Friday deals?
Stumbled onto this five year old article on greatest rotations. 90’s Braves make the top 5 twice, including #1 from their 1998 staff: just look at those sick numbers from FIVE pitchers. Unreal. All five starters in the top 10 in wins. That is ridiculous.
Curt, there’s no such thing as a collapse in which you lose 4 games out of 6. That’s just baseball. Add to that, before losing a tight Padres series, hey swept the Cubs, so their post season record that year was 5-4. Even a 106 win team goes through 5-4 stretches a dozen times a year, not to mention a few worse ones.
I thought Megamind was great. First movie that my entire family sat through from beginning to end (maybe that added to why I loved it). Didn’t see Despicable Me. Also saw Tangled this weekend . . . it was . . . a movie. My kids loved it.
Is anyone watching the Walking Dead? It is amazing. Best show on TV. You have to like zombie movies to enjoy it. Takes place in and around Atlanta. I could not recommend it more. Do not let your kids watch it.
KK’s reactions to Atlanta’s attempts to send him back to Japan, while they are on the very mild end of the sports ego spectrum, make me reconsider the moral golden boy status I previously endowed(sp?) him with.
C’mon, Kenshin, you made a ton of dough here, go and pitch where you are very good at it.
Dammit, dammit, dammit. I can’t believe Diaz is really, seriously going to be gone. I’m physically ill. This hurts almost as bad as the Conrad grounder. Has he really out-stayed his value? I just don’t see it. Gosh, what a freaking loss.
#73, absolutely. You know the Marlins or Phils will pick him up and he will just crush us. He will figure out how to hit righties. I don’t see how he can’t be used off the bench, if not starting occasionally when need be. Prado will end up playing 3rd when Chip goes down, so we’ll need a seasoned vet to step in in RF. Not to mention the fact that CF is a HUGE question mark, so it wouldn’t hurt to have some more proven bench/OF spot starters on the team.
I think losing him and Hinske would be bad for our field performance as well as team chemistry. How can we preach chemistry like we did during the Esco trade and then not sign BOTH Diaz and Hinske? Are we really that strapped for cash?
Also, I would put money on Esco rebounding next year rather than McLouth. I would also put money on Esco being an All-Star and McLouth being out of a starting gig by 2012. The Escobar trade will end up being one of those trades that makes you say this guy was really traded for Alex Gonzalez and Pastornicky. Really? Still a lit upset over that one. Thought I might vent on the blog. To me, Gonzo looks a little unfocused at times, too. There’s more than a handful of games from August on that will provide valid examples of this theory.
BTW, I really hope I’m wrong about #76, but does anyone other than Bub really think McLouth will rebound? I honestly believe Escobar is a very good baseball player, but there are too many question marks on what’s going on in his head for the Braves to keep him on our team. If he can figure it out he’s gonna be really good again. I just don’t get how we can preach team chemistry and not bring back both Hinske and Diaz.
I have ZERO confidence. Less then zero confidence that Nate rebounds. It was clearly some collective dream we all had in early September when he couldn’t make an out for that one week.
And, I know this will be unpopular, but I can live with no Diaz. Not to say that I didn’t love him, but if we keep Hinske and turn that 2.5MM into a bench player and a bullpen arm, I’m ok with it. That said, there is no doubt he’ll be a Philly and will absolutely decimate us.
My Diaz fandom had really kicked up a notch over the past months, bored and flipping through articles and interviews. I had really only been “playing at” loving Diaz before, but he became just about my favorite Braves.
Great news on Hinske, though. I’m very excited, and I believe Mather has a lot of potential to produce, too – looking forward to seeing what he’s got.
Here’s the official Release from the Braves about non-tendering Diaz:
Braves Non-Tender Outfielder Matt Diaz
ATLANTA – The Atlanta Braves have declined to tender a 2011 contract offer to outfielder Matt Diaz, who is now free to negotiate with any Major League team.
The Braves have four remaining arbitration-eligible players on their 40-man roster who are unsigned for the upcoming season – infielder Martin Prado, right-handed pitchers Jair Jurrjens and Peter Moylan and left-handed pitcher Eric O’Flaherty.
I would sign Diaz before I gave Hinske two years. But since they got Hinske for a year and an option (which few people pause to realize is actually LESS valuable to a player than a one year contract by itself), I can’t argue with the decision.
So glad we got Hinske. Has someone checked in on Anne? I hope she’s ok. Bub, #88 made my day.
Have y’all noticed Wren is extremely high on Pastornicky(sp?)? Is there any chance he is our starting SS in 2012? I’m not so sure that one is gonna work out, but it seems like Wren got rid of Esco to get Pasto. Gonzo will surely be gone after this year. The reliever that came over in that deal is gone, so it would seem that he was the main target in that deal, kind of like Vizcaino in the Vazquez deal.
Steve, I would take Hinske over Diaz. Both are great for what they bring to an organization, but I think Hinske is more valuable due to his ability to play 1st as well as the outfield. Hinske also brings more power off the bench, and I actually thought he did a decent job the one time he played 3rd. He’s deceptively quick for his size. Plus, if we somehow got in a brawl with another team, Hinske looks like the kind of guy you’d want on your side. Hanson does hit a lot of guys.
When Braves general manager Frank Wren called Matt Diaz on Wednesday to inform him that it didn’t appear he would be re-signed for the 2011 season, the outfielder graciously said, “Don’t forget about me.”
I won’t, Matty…I won’t. (I knew I jinxed him the moment I put the Diaz shirt on my back!)
Here’s the official Release from the Braves on Linebrink. The best stats, imo:
He held opposing batters to a .203 (15-for-74) clip with runners in scoring position and posted a .083 (1-for-12) opponent’s average with the bases loaded.
ATLANTA – The Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox announced today that the two clubs completed a two-player trade. The Braves have acquired right-handed relief pitcher Scott Linebrink and cash considerations from the White Sox in exchange for minor-league right-handed pitcher Kyle Cofield. Linebrink is under contract through the 2011 season.
Linebrink, 34, went 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in 52 games for the White Sox in 2010. He recorded 52 strikeouts in 57.1 innings and ranked third among White Sox relievers in innings pitched. He held opposing batters to a .203 (15-for-74) clip with runners in scoring position and posted a .083 (1-for-12) opponent’s average with the bases loaded.
“Scott is a veteran pitcher who has experience in a variety of roles,” Executive Vice President and General Manager Frank Wren said. “He will play an important part in our bullpen in 2011.”
The 2010 campaign marked the right-handed reliever’s 11th Major League season. He owns a 38-27 career record with a 3.50 ERA and 525 strikeouts in 543 appearances (six starts) and has made at least 50 appearances in each of his last eight seasons. Primarily a set-up man, Linebrink ranks second in the majors with 141 holds since the start of the 2004 season. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound Linebrink has played for the San Francisco Giants (2000), the Houston Astros (2000-2003), the San Diego Padres (2003-2007), the Milwaukee Brewers (2007), and the last three seasons with the White Sox (2008-2010). He was a second-round draft pick by the Giants in 1997.
Cofield, 23, has a career minor league record of 25-26 with a 4.12 ERA in 118 games (82 starts), including going 1-4 with a 4.47 ERA in 20 games (12 starts) between Double-A Mississippi and Gulf Coast League (rookie) in 2010. He was drafted by the Braves in the eighth round of the 2005 June free agent draft.
YIKES. Braves picked up FOUR million of Linebrink’s salary. This is awful. What’s he THINKING? This is the dumbest bullpen pick up I’ve ever heard of. Good grief. It’s not like turning O’Flaherty into gold, or the Moylan signing. This guy is making FOUR MILLION DOLLARS.
Terrible. Horrible. Nasty. Yuck. We swapped Matt Diaz for Mather for THIS? Gross.
I don’t even want Linbrink taking innings way from Kimbrel or Venters, much less being the veteran addition. Not unless the young guys falter. But with a guy like this, it doesn’t matter if they falter or not, Linebrink and his fat four million will get the innings.
Bub- We got a veteran reliever (with Chicago picking up some of his salary) and we gave up NO prospects to speak of. We needed a veteran reliever. This guy is by no means Farnsworth 2.0. Granted he might be a bit pricey, but most veteran relievers (who are good) are probably in this ballpark. I think this is a good move. He was shutdown with RISP last year, he played in a hitter-friendly park, and he would be a great mentor for Venters, Kimbrel, and others. I don’t think it is bone-headed at all.
1. The WAR data is compelling and depressing
2. 4MM seems steep for a guy with a 4+ ERA the past two seasons
3. This would be much more exciting if it were, say, 2003 or 2004.
That said, in my off-season optimism mode:
I’m willing to believe his numbers could improve by coming back to the NL and a pitcher’s park and I do see value in the veteran pitcher in the bullpen thing. But yeah, this seems like a bunch of money for a pretty middling guy.
Steve, I have been informed that using WAR for relievers is not a great idea. In this case, the outcome was so extreme that it still made a real case, but not as shattering a case as it would have been against a hitter.
Add to that the new salary numbers and I am calm enough.
In order for teams with heavy budget constraints to compete, they MUST, MUST, MUST cash in on cheap talent.
If you are given the choice between a high prospect that MIGHT produce nicely for six cheap years, and a star who will almost SURELY produce nicely, BUT AT A COST EQUAL TO HIS VALUE, for any amount of time, we MUST side with the prospect 90% of the time.
For example, if the Royals would trade us Greinke for Teheran straight up, we should say no. Sure, Greinke would give us a certain value for 2 years, but it would cost 27 million dollars. Teheran, even by only becoming a #3 pitcher (and he should do more) will dwarf that value by giving us six years for less than 20 million all total.
Same for Gonzo versus Freeman.
The place to spend money is where you have no hot prospect. Following this simple method keeps you with the MOST chances to cash in on cheap talent. Because, I repeat, if we fail to cash in on cheap talent, we will run out of money, period.
By spending big money only where you don’t have any in-house options, and hanging onto your top prospects, it’s like loading the little lottery-basket with more ping pong balls. Every prospect, even the hot ones, will not work out. But it’s suicide to subtract many of the ping pong balls when you know you MUST cash in on at least 3 or 4 of them every 10 years to have a chance.
It’s not that we should never hire premium talent. But it should be like Uggla, who both cost us almost nothing in terms of cheap impact talent (nothing he won’t demolish, value-wise, in his very first year), and does not block any prospect from producing for us cheaply.
Blah blah blah. That’s so long and rambling, even I am not going to read it. And God knows I love reading my own posts….