Show #154: Our Mid-season Report Card
The Best. The Worst. A Grade for Fredi. Predictions for the Second Half.
337 Responses to “Show #154: Our Mid-season Report Card”
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 … 14 » Show All
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 … 14 » Show All
July 6th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
Okay Mark and DAP, I just took a tour of Astros message boards concerning Bourn. It seems he’s nowhere near as precious/ valuable to them as McCann et al to us. So it’s possible I don’t know what I’m talking about…
I reckon that’s the trouble with weighing WAR too much, etc.
July 6th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
24
If our farm system and team were in as bad a shape at Houston, we might – but probably not because 3.3 at catcher is SO MUCH MORE valuable than 3.3 at CF.
And while I won’t dispute your “CF starved market” claim, just because there is a lack of CF’s, doesn’t mean teams are beating a path to their door… Atlanta is one of a very FEW teams that would have an interest in Bourn because he is not the “big bat” that MOST teams are looking for.
I would anticipate that most teams would be “knocking” to inquire about Hunter Pence. Most playoff teams are trying to fill corner (either infield or outfield) spots with “big bats”. If Atlanta could get a “big bat” for center, they would, but equally valuable to the Braves would be a true leadoff man (high OBP w/ speed).
The only other real upgradable spot (not counting 2B) is shortstop – I anticipate an EVEN MORE starved market there…
In Atlanta, Houston has a trading partner from which they can aquire a CF that needs seasoning (time they have to give him since they are going NOWHERE) and an almost ML ready pitching prospect – not exactly an “unknown” – in Delgado.
Not a bad return (Delgado) for swaping centerfielders, as well as saving some money on Schafer’s contract.
July 6th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
26
I was typing mine while you were posting yours
July 6th, 2011 at 3:30 pm
mark in memphis
“From now on, you take everything you swing at the other way. I don’t care where the pitch is, if you decide to swing at it, it better be aimed at right or right-center.”
man, how terrible would it be if uggla actually did this. this is a bad idea. its not how you coach a player to stay on the ball, if thats what youre getting at.
July 6th, 2011 at 3:31 pm
bubdylan, what the braves would take for brian mccann is irrelevant when we are talking about the astros and michael bourn. teams are in different situations, players have very different track records and skill sets.
delgado and schafer alone could probably do it.
July 6th, 2011 at 3:34 pm
My least favorite series was @ Mil.
We had just won two of three to start the season from the Nationals (who seem to have “had our number” since they were the Expos) and IN their park. In the final game of the series, we scored eleven runs and gave up two.
Then they enter Mil and win the first game, 2-1. Then procede to get shut out the next game, losing by a run. Then lose the next game by a run. Then lose the next game by two runs. They scored two runs or less in three of the four games.
So we “limp” home off the first road trip, with w/ losing record after seven games and the Phillies coming to town.
UGGLA, I mean Ugly….
July 6th, 2011 at 3:35 pm
bubdylan…and i just saw your post at the top of the page as i posted this. im not a big WAR fan myself, though i am surprised that bourn’s is equal to mccann’s.
the thing to remember about the ‘stros is that they are the worst team in baseball with a horrible system. they are a team that may even take quantity over quality when it comes to players. all bourn is to them is a trading chip, and they will want the best package they can get…even if its not all that good.
obviously, thats speculation…but i dont think bourn is going to fetch a haul.
July 6th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Matt Chernoff interviewed Dan Uggla on 680 today. On being booed at Turner:
“I would boo me right now, too.”
Also, I was surprised this was only Chipper’s 7th All-Star team. In 1999 when he won the MVP and posted a 1.074 OPS, he was not an All-Star. Matt Williams, Ed Sprague, and Phil Nevin made the team instead.
July 6th, 2011 at 3:44 pm
“Also, I was surprised this was only Chipper’s 7th All-Star team.”
eric, he only has 1 more all star appearance than mccann. that is surprising, as good of a player as he was/is. but, i think playing left field for several years really hurt him, as far as All-Star consideration. he probably would have made it a couple of times during those years as a 3rd baseman.
July 6th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
29
I have to disagree with you on this one.
He is trying to pull everything. He is pulling off the ball, starting early, head “going to left” when he swings.
Go back and look at how many of his homeruns have been on mistakes up and on the inner half of the plate… the balls he can still hit when he is “pulling off” the plate… by my count, all but two. One he hit to center and one he hit to right center, both a long way and both when he was NOT pulling off the plate.
He rarely seems to pull doubles. When he hits a double, it is in a gap, when he hasn’t pulled off the ball. It is along the same lines of getting Freddie not to dive into the plate so much…
I agree that it might be a little extreme…
How about “take everything back up the middle, from gap to gap – don’t go up there looking to ‘pull’ anything”… He looks like he goes up there with a plan to pull EVERYTHING!
July 6th, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Mark @ 35, yeah man, no doubt he is pulling off the ball. just saying that “aiming towards right field” is also a bad approach.
but i know what you mean is that he need to just stay on the ball, keep his head still, front shoulder in.
by the way, almost all homeruns hit are on mistake pitches. nothing wrong with that, either.
i agree with the folks who think he needs to move up on the plate. his bat speed is good, and he is really quick inside. he can move up on the plate, react to that inside pitch and cover the outer half a little bit better, i think.
but yeah, keeping that front shoulder pointed towards the middle of the field will help him stay on the ball, without trying to aim the thing.
July 6th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
There is a difference between “reacting to an inside pitch” and “being a ‘pull hitter’”
He was so effective against us when he was hitting everything from gap to gap, including homeruns.
I think he heard too much press in the off-season about him being “the big bopper in the middle of the line-up then Braves had needed for years”… That, combined with the extension, has brainwashed him into thinking he needs to hit more homers and he has to pull the ball for more power.
Somebody needs to get it into his head, we just want him to perform like he did for Florida and that will be enough. We paid for the .265 average, five years of 25+ homeruns and 85+ RBI per year guy we saw in Florida.
He doesn’t have to be the teams savior… Just the guy that used to kill us while he played for Florida.
July 6th, 2011 at 4:01 pm
36
I am pretty sure the ” just stay on the ball, keep his head still, front shoulder in” is something that he has been told, he has thought about, he tries to do, etc.
I don’t think that technique is his problem. As I said in 37, I think it is approach. Until he changes that, he will continue to be a “pull hitter”. When he goes back to being a “gap hitter”, all those other things will fall into line…
Maybe we could get Freddie to talk with him…
July 6th, 2011 at 4:10 pm
My favorite series:
Four game series vs Mil in Atlanta
We scored at least six runs in three of four games, held them to six runs TOTAL for the series, shut them out once and swept the four games when they had a record of 10-7 in the games they played since beating us 3 of 4 in Mil.
July 6th, 2011 at 4:14 pm
DAP, I’m less a WAR fan than I was 24 hours ago. I expect over reliance on that stat is a phase most saber-dabblers such as myself go through early on. I shall now proceed to use my new anti-WAR knowledge to make new wild and unfounded claims. Look out, world.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01-2pNCZiNk&feature=related
July 6th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
The problem with WAR in comparing players is it doesn’t take position into consideration. You can compare “apples to apples” i.e. catcher to catcher with WAR, but not position to position (however, I think there is a stat for that, too)…
July 6th, 2011 at 4:18 pm
Uggla prediction:
107 hits and 28 homeruns, if he stays a “pull hitter” (he got 12 inside mistakes in the first half and I figure he will get that in the second plus a little)
145 hits and 35 homeruns, if he returns to being a “gap hitter”
July 6th, 2011 at 4:27 pm
JJ prediction:
21 wins, due to him being on the DL and not pitching as many starts early will pay dividends toward the end of the season.
July 6th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
“The problem with WAR in comparing players is it doesn’t take position into consideration.”
my problem with WAR is that the stat is a completely moving target. it is based on a “replacement level” player. this is a person who doesnt exist. its just a profile of an imaginary baseball player, made up by the stats of EVERY SINGLE PLAYER in baseball.
A single player can put up the exact same stat .300/.400/.500 with 30 homers and 100 RBI every year for 5 years, and have a different WAR every year. suggesting somehow, that he was better in some years than he was in others. that would be false. he is exactly the same player.
anyways, i dont hate WAR, but i dont put alot of stock in it.
July 6th, 2011 at 4:31 pm
Well, though I did blindly compare a catcher to a CF using WAR only, I was shooting for a severe approximation. Any player heading for 6 WAR on the year (if you go for WAR, which of course I don’t, not me!) for affordable money is extremely valuable. Braves didn’t have even one of those last year. Heyward came closest at 5.1
I would still be surprised if Delgado & Schafer alone brought Bourn to the Braves, but if it would, pull that trigger yesterday.
But remember your original claim was that he wouldn’t cost a premium prospect. That’s crazy talk. And McLouth truly makes no sense for the Astros. Why would they downgrade at CF for half a season at the cost of long term value in Bourn?
July 6th, 2011 at 4:37 pm
bubdylan “But remember your original claim was that he wouldn’t cost a premium prospect.”
i dont remember that. i know I didnt say that, and i dont think mark did either…
July 6th, 2011 at 4:41 pm
“He is relatively cheap to own and I think could be had for McLouth and prospect or two) not including Delgado, Terhan, etc.” – Mark in Memphis, first page somewhere.
July 6th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
Gonzalez batting 2nd again. Shaking my head.
July 6th, 2011 at 5:02 pm
For those of you scoring at home, Mark in Mem agreed with THREE things I said on the show. A new record!
July 6th, 2011 at 5:09 pm
I’m saving my Hammy Kudos for the rest of Uggla’s potential turn around. If he pulls it off on the heels of Atlanta putting up two and a half great weeks just as you called it, I’m anointing you ABTGOY, ABT Guru of the Year.