Show #162: Irene 2, Braves 0
Hanson’s injury. Lowe and JJ on the upswing? Potential NLDS rotations and the post season hope meter.
179 Responses to “Show #162: Irene 2, Braves 0”
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August 29th, 2011 at 12:35 am
Hey guys, good show. Do you think we add Teheran and Delgado to the bullpen mix for Septmeber, and would they be eligible for the postseason? I could see those 2 really helping out the team by pitching the 6th or 7th and letting us rest O’Ventbrel for the postseason.
August 29th, 2011 at 5:22 am
My post season rotation:
Hudson
Beachy
JJ
Lowe
August 29th, 2011 at 7:35 am
Nate, depending on how it shakes out, those guys might be getting starts so the starters can rest and the postseason rotation can be set early on. I imagine they, Pastornicky, and a couple of others will be up.
August 29th, 2011 at 8:49 am
I can’t see myself ever putting Lowe in the postseason rotation.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:23 am
Hi G-Dawg, welcome to the board.
What’s your NLDS rotation look like?
August 29th, 2011 at 11:34 am
Great show guys, as always. Steve — during the Postseason Hope Meter segment, you said exactly what I was thinking: that y’all will need to change it to NLCS Hope Meter or something like that. At this point, there’s no way that we lose a 8.5-game lead with the Giants playing the way they have, and the Cardinals not doing too hot either. Knock on wood, but no way.
My postseason rotation really depends on how Hanson rebounds. I don’t think that we can count him out of playing altogether, but it may not be a bad idea to skip him in the first round when we’re playing the Brewers. Cause if we advance to the NLCS, he could go in game 1 with a fresh, rested arm, and that could make a big difference. I would go:
Hudson
JJ
Lowe
Beachy
Hudson’s a slam-dunk #1. JJ had only one start against Milwaukee this year, but it was a great one. Lowe could be a #2, but even if he does have another great (or even decent) September, he’d be a strong #3. However, Beachy has dominated the Brewers this year in two starts (12 IP, 16 K, 1 earned run), so perhaps he’d be better suited for going #2 or #3.
We have a winning record against the Brewers this season (5-3), but that can be very deceptive. They were 2 games under .500 when they came to Atlanta and we swept them in May, and since that series, they’ve gone 68-36. That’s phenomenal.
But let’s face it — they’re bound for a first-round bounce from the playoffs. I don’t think they keep up this pace through September and into the postseason. Probably the Braves’ homer in me coming out, but I think that they’ll come back to earth before too long.
August 29th, 2011 at 1:48 pm
The most pressurized games are 1,3 and 5. So I only would trust jj or huddy in those games. I know Lowe has experience but I have a feeling he could implode and Beachy is a rookie so game 2 would be the best spot for him. Just in case we are down 2-0 you don’t want a rookie on the mound.
-Happy b-day MJ
August 29th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
Walker – great point about the pressure in certain games. But, doesn’t game 2 become highly pressurized if you lose game 1? My only point being is I don’t know that you can build the rotation in that way.
August 29th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
The stats I meant to have last night during the show. Here are road stats for our four post-season starters (which I think we all agree are Huddy, JJ, Lowe, and Beachy).
Hudson – 5-4 with a 4.04 era
JJ – 6-3 with a 2.61
Lowe – 5-9 with a 4.47 (although he has six more starts than either of the above)
Beachy – 4-1 with a 3.24
Unless we move mountains, let’s face it – we’re opening the playoffs on the road against the Brewers. I think you go Hudson, JJ (on the road) then Lowe (just in case it is an elimination game), then Beachy (or maybe even Hudson again). In a do or die game, I think I trust Lowe over Beachy. Not by a lot, but by enough.
August 29th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Thanks, Steve. Can’t believe I haven’t found this great resource til now!
Assuming Hanson comes back healthy, I’d put down:
Hudson
Hanson
JJ
Beachy
If Hanson isn’t back, which is a scary but plausible scenario, give Minor the job. He’s shown already that he’s capable of pitching in the bigs.
August 29th, 2011 at 4:06 pm
did you cite rickie weeks and prince fielder as MVP candidates for the brewers? weeks hasnt played in a month, with an ankle injury….ryan braun is dominating this season. great year.
August 29th, 2011 at 4:12 pm
personally, i bump beachy up a slot in the postseason rotation. let him pitch game 3, at least.
honestly, its hard to go wrong with the postseason rotation. the guys we have are all solid, and all capable of putting up a shutout on any given night. id like to have it set up for hudson to pitch game 1. outside of that, im ok with letting it fall where it will.
this braves team may produce some very memorable post season games, by the way. im gonna expect a few extra innings along the way.
August 29th, 2011 at 4:38 pm
I meant Braun, not Weeks. It wouldn’t be a good show if I didn’t have at least one huge gaffe.
August 29th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
@Steve
Game 2 is highly pressurized but it isn’t an elimination game. I just don’t feel comfortable with Lowe or Beachy in a win or go home situation. Without Hanson he is our only swing and miss pitcher and could really work well in game two. Lets say the Brewers lose game 1. They will come out game two impatient and aggressive. Beach can frustate them. JJ is perfect for the 1st home game. And my feelings on Lowe is that I dont trust him.
August 29th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
To follow up on an earlier thread…
I can see sitting McCann on Friday.
Since coming off the DL he has played 11 of 12 consecutive games on consecutive days (one game off 5 days previous), it is his (somewhat) usual day to rest and you are facing a lefty.
It isn’t so much about “he can rest later” as it is “don’t tire him so much that he hurts himself again”…
I see the three days off as a good thing for “down the line”…
August 29th, 2011 at 8:09 pm
Postseason Rotation:
Huddy
Beachy
Lowe
JJ
When we’re up or down 2-1 to the Brewers, I want JJ and Huddy pitching for the series win or to save us from elimination. I wouldn’t feel very good about a 2-1 series deficit and a rookie or Lowe as our only hope of staying alive. The problem I see with my postseason rotation is if we drop game 1, I want JJ pitching instead of the other 2, so maybe you swap Beachy and JJ in my rotation. The problem there is if you’re down in the series 2-1, it all falls on the shoulders of the rookie in his first postseason appearance. I’m glad I don’t have to make these decisions, and I am terrified that Fredi has to make these decisions.
August 29th, 2011 at 8:14 pm
If Hanson is healthy: Huddy, Hanson, Lowe, JJ
August 29th, 2011 at 8:36 pm
Lot of baseball left to see which starters hold up during September. I’m betting though that Lowe is going to have to earn a start against Brewers with more than a couple of quality starts between now and then. Lowe hasn’t shown much big game success this year and getting your pitchers of the future in these games builds them for more success. ON the other hand, if Lowe is hot, he starts at least one in first series. It also makes him more tradeable in off season.
August 29th, 2011 at 8:46 pm
It sounds like most Braves fans would choose Beachy over Lowe for a postseason start.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:23 pm
M in M, no acknowledgement that it might be important to get your most important offensive weapon back in a game the day after he said he’s found his swing and there’s at least 2 days of rest to follow? I get the giving him rest thing, but after an 0 – 15, you’ve got to get him back in there after that kind of declaration.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:54 pm
Hey all. Buried my mom today. My first evening of rest in months, and I’m listening to the podcast as a way of returning to some sense of normalcy. It’s working, too, I have to say. Good to hear your voices. I checked the standings just now; it’s nice to see we’re at least closer to Philly than the next WC contenders are to us. Missed you guys. Starting school tomorrow, so I’ll be sparse, but be back soon.
(In lieu of flooding the comments with condolences, the family requests silent birdie fingers be lifted North toward Citi Field for 30 seconds. Go Braves.)
August 29th, 2011 at 10:01 pm
Bub – huge double birds in a southwest direction from me – I’ll be in Philly in two weeks to deliver them in person on behalf of you and your family.
All the best – glad you are back. Hang in there.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:12 pm
#23, Bub, consider it done.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:14 pm
Had company all weekend and can’t wait to listen to the show. Soooooooooo ready for baseball and shooting serious birds for Bub.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:51 pm
Bub – my fingers are raised northward. Sorry to hear it and welcome back. You’ve been missed.