ABT team — just want to say thanks for the show, even in the midst of slowness on Wren and co.’s part. It’s always great to listen to a show, even if most of it is speculation and assessing what Atlanta might do the rest of the offseason.
How bout the FALCONS?!?! If they can keep up their recent play, especially against New Orleans on the 26th, watch out!
the only thing adam jones has going for him over cody ross is youth. at best they are equal players. if you wouldnt trade jurrjens for cody ross, you shouldnt do it for adam jones. both trades would be stupid.
Hi DAP – great to hear from you. Interesting on Adam Jones. I’ll have to look at his numbers over the weekend. I remember looking at him at the trade deadline last season and thinking he looked pretty good, but I’m interested to see the numbers more closely.
Both players have negative UZR’s however, Ross has a negative UZR playing the corner outfield positions. If you put Adam Jones in LF his UZR would be much higher than it is playing CF just like Vernon Wells. Adam Jones has a way better arm than Ross.
Cody Ross is on the other side of 30. Adam Jones is 26 and hasn’t yet hit his peak years.
Their career OBP is about the same with Ross most likely to drop and Jones’s most likely to rise.
Jones has more power. Bill James predicts 24 HRs for Jones and 16 for Ross next year.
Bottom Lines is that Jones is younger, more likely to get better, has more power, hits for better average, and plays better defense than Ross. He’s just a better player.
Listening to most recent pod and think guy undervalue
Seth Smith an Wheeler. Smith’s splits against righties (most pitchers) is
awesome. Check out his splits AND Wheeler has awesome potential to fill in cf once Bourn is gone. Both those guys under control for one year of JJ, do the deal!
But are you solving any problems getting Seth Smith or Wheeler, other than the fact that you don’t have to re-sign Bourn? It’s a very cynical and lateral move. You admit that you are not going to try and sign Bourn to a deal, and you fail to add any power to your lineup with either one of those guys.
walker, just wanted to respond to your post about jones vs. cody ross.
first, you pointed out adam jones’ higher WAR. this drastic difference has mostly to do with playing time. ross has about 2/3rds the ABs of jones, also while playing mostly LF, which negativley effects his WAR. even if he is playing it well. by the way, baseball reference has ross’ WAR as 1.6, and adam jones’ at 1.7. different cites calculate it differently, but maybe its not as far aprt as you think.
second you cite UZR. you CAN check cody ross’ UZR and other defensive stats in CF, and youll find that cody ross outplays adam jones in center. really the only think jones wins in is arm strength. so ross is a better centerfielder than adam jones, and keep in mind, most teams see ross as only a servicbale centerfielder. what does that tell you about jones’ defense? its bad.
you cite jones as having better power, using a bill james projection. does bill james account for home ball park? does he account for playing time? i think he does. so cody ross playing part time in san fransisco, vs adam jones playing everyday in baltimore can account for the difference in his projections.
ross has a career slg% of .456 with 21 homers and 33 2Bs per 162. jones has a .437 slg% with 19 homers and 26 doubles per 162. ross has more power.
one more stat: WPA. ross has a career 3.56, while jones has a -1.03.
the one thing jones has going for him is his youth, ill give you that. but he is certinly NOT a better player than cody ross at this point (david that goes for you, too), and there is no way id be willing to trade jurrjens or prado hoping that adam jones would become more than a borderline 4th outfielder. if you want a player like adam jones, just sign cody ross. he will cost less money and no players in a trade, and is arguably a better player.
We can’t have cake & eat it too. Y’all were raggin’ on A-Gonzales all year, so gotta expect Wren would’ve done something…however, Simmons is supposed to be good defensive player as well as Wren is likely getting adequate defensive player to back Pastornicky initially. Think we pbby won’t get Seth Smith, and initially he didn’t look very good, but looking at him…I don’t think he would be too bad…but don’t see him as equivalent to Prado. Next year is going to be tough, especially if Heyward doesn’t make huge rebound. I’m looking forward to Julio Teheran.
DAP: I’ll echo Walker’s point — agree to disagree. I couldn’t care less about UZR, WPA, or WAR. I’m sure those are fine stats, but I don’t think that they define a player.
Adam Jones is 25 years old, and he’s got a ton of potential. His numbers are on a great trajectory, with his power totals increasing last year. I’m hearing that Cody Ross is seeking a 2- or 3-year contract, and Adam Jones will hit free agency after the 2013 — so we’d have him for two seasons. If we could have Adam Jones for two seasons (and possibly longer) when he’s in his mid-twenties and in the upswing of his career versus having a Cody Ross for two seasons when he’s in his early thirties and in a downswing of his career, I’d much rather have Adam Jones — UZR, WPA, WAR, whatever other obscure stats there are be damned.
All of this is moot, of course. From a realistic standpoint, I think Wren would rather pay $9-10 million over two years of Cody Ross rather than trading whatever players Baltimore would want for Adam Jones.
“From a realistic standpoint, I think Wren would rather pay $9-10 million over two years of Cody Ross rather than trading whatever players Baltimore would want for Adam Jones.”
i agree with you, because he is a very smart GM. I dont hate Adam Jones as a player. he’s fine, but hes not worth prado. and hes not worth jurrjens. orioles overvalue him, and they will never trade trade him for those two, so thats good for us, but Adam Jones is one of the most overrated players in baseball…you dont need WAR or UZR to tell you that.
personally, im looking forward to NEXT offseason, when free agent outfielders like Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Andre Ethier, Shane Victorino, Nick Swisher, BJ Upton, ect will all be free agents.
I agree Curt. Until the Braves get new ownership that cares about winning, they will never never never, ever sign/pursue big time free agents. The only way we keep winning is to continue to sign and draft well. The only problem is that developing your own players is only one aspect of building a championship team. You also have to be able to fill holes by signing a free agent here or there. And if we do sign a free agent it be a pitcher on the downside of their career(Lowe).
#47, if that rumor is true, then the Orioles continue to run that organization like a clown show. I’m really glad they turned that down and overvalue Jones as much as they do. Adam Jones is a player who will get traded to the Braves and find a new career low in most offensive categories. Do not want.
The only thing he has on Prado is more power and the ability to play center. He’s not necessarily a better defensive player, imo, and Prado has a really great shot at hitting .300 again, which is something Jones will never do with his plate discipline. I just don’t see how Adam Jones would be a major upgrade over what we already have. JMO.