Thanks for the show guys. Honestly, I most surprised by how little I care. I seriously think September damaged my baseball soul. I’m usually counting down days until Spring training and reading every possible rumor. Wren better do something spectacular cause I’d guess I’m not the only one feeling this way in Braves Nation. I’m sure I’ll bounce back.
I am so totally against any scenario that includes trading Prado. Last year was a complete fluke. Tell me he’s not working his a$$ off getting ready for next season. Bad, bad, bad move.
Problem w/ Prado is we don’t need him to play every day at 2B for us.
He IS a quality Major League second baseman that can also play at 1B, 3B and in LF. At any of the corner positions, those are places where we expect more power than he can provide on an everyday basis.
As far as LF goes, we need to get more power than he can provide. If he doesn’t play LF, he will cost too much to let him be a spot starter. When healthly, he can been a pretty effective #2 hitter behind Bourn (high BA, high OBP), however, you are usually looking for that from a SS, 2B or CF – Prado doesn’t play SS well, he won’t supplant Uggla at second and isn’t better than Bourn defensively in center.
He will also cost too much to have him sitting on the bench “in case Chipper gets hurt”…
The question was asked if Pujols was going to get Lebron’d in St Louis, and was quickly dismissed as Pujols brought St Louis multiple championships. However, the St Louis sports media *is* LeBron-ing him. Not that it’s anything new that the fan base is infinitely more intelligent than the sports media, but you rarely see such an obvious example.
Most power hitters aren’t usually the most mobile and athletic players. So therefore most power hitters play positions such as 3b,1b,LF,RF where range isn’t a huge factor. Dan Uggla’s is a power hitter playing a traditional non power position but his range is horrible by evidence of his UZR. That’s why most people would have rather put him in LF and Prado at 2b. Also this is why 5 tool players and power hitters at SS,C,CF are so valuable like when Alex Rodriguez was a 25 year old free agent SS who could hit 50 homers, steal bases and play great defense. You can’t get more valuable than that.
Since we get power from Uggla at a non power position we don’t need a power LF. What the Braves need is a guy who can get on base. The Braves actually hit a lot of home runs last season, but no one was ever on base when they did.
#8, agreed. We hit so many solo homers last year. I think they get enough power with Mac, Uggla, and Freeman in the middle of the order. If we can get Heyward in 25-30 HR range, which he should easily be doing every year, then we’ve got a pretty potent middle of the lineup. Our guys need to be playing to their potential, though.
I would like to see Chipper find a home in the 2 spot in the order. That seemed to boost the offense a little bit when it happened, but then he went back to the 3 for some reason. Chipper is not a 3 hitter anymore, imo. I don’t care what the effing book says.
The Braves had some bad mojo or something going around last year (maybe bad coaching). Even Bourn, who was having a career year, managed to be in a huge slump about a month into his Braves career.
I think the Cardinals organization wins in the whole Pujols deal. He won them 2 championships in the cheaper/younger part of his career. Now another team will have to overpay for his less productive years. They still have Matt Holliday, Carpenter, and Wainwright, and the rest of that division looks very beatable, especially with the recent Braun news. Not to mention, Josh Freese and Carpenter won this last WS for them, not Albert Pujols.
I mostly feel bad for the Astros fanbase. Not because their organization sucks because a senile Phillies fan has run them into the ground, but because they thought they were finally getting away from El Hombre with their move to the AL West. Now it appears they will both be meeting again in 2013…
What’s our bullpen looking like at this point?
We now there will be Kimbrel, Venters, O’Flaherty, Medlen, Vizcaino, and Martinez. How many spots are left after that and who fills them? Varvaro, Ascencio?
Chipper stopped hitting 2nd because of weak managing. Fredi gave in like a wuss when Chipper told the media he wanted to hit lower even though the team benefited from him hitting 2nd. This team was a joke in September.
We’ve been talking about it a bit on the Facebook page. Anyone upset (from a baseball perspective) about the non-tendering of Moylan and Brooks?
To me, it’s the right thing to do on both accounts.
Agreed on the Chipper in the 2 hole thing. The team did get some offensive life back in it for a while there. Hopefully Prado (is still with the team, first off) and rebounds like we think and then the 2 spot will be in good shape.
So, the rumor de jour: Braves are talking with Orioles about a possible trade. Adam Jones, possibly? Hey, I think that’d do the trick.
When I first looked at Jones’ career numbers, I was underwhelmed. He’s never had an OPS over .800, and it looks like he’s a low-OBP, high K, low BB guy. But it also looks like he’s heading in the right direction, what with his HR and RBI totals increasing. He’s a .275-.280 hitter, and he’s only 25 years old, with tons of potential and good years ahead of him.
Also, baseball-reference.com lists the “most similar players through current age” on each player’s profile, and the one that is most similar to Adam Jones through 25 years old? Dave Winfield. Not bad. He had better OBP numbers early in his career, but if Adam Jones has that kind of potential, then I’d be all for trading JJ and Delgado or Minor for him. Don’t know if that’s what we’d have to give up, but I’d do it.
Leah – thanks for the link. Fabulous version. Although, it’s kinda funny seeing that song (particularly the jam at the end) in front of such a staid crowd. I think I told you this back in April, but that jam got probably the biggest crowd reaction at the Turner Field show.
kate “What the Braves need is a guy who can get on base.”
amen to that. the key to solving the offensive woes from 2011 is OBP, period. in 2010, they were among league leaders in OBP, and that skill translated into a fairly effective offense, despite not having alot of punch. the braves have power, plenty of it. give my a OBP machine.
Adam Jones is one of the most overrated baseball players i have ever seen. he is barley better than jeff francouer. he doesnt play CF well, doesnt get on base, has bad plate discipline… the only way he could be considered a good ball player was if he could play CF really well. since he cant, he is basically a LFer, OPSing in the mid .700s every year. trading either prado or jurrjens for him would be a huge mistake.
ABT team — just want to say thanks for the show, even in the midst of slowness on Wren and co.’s part. It’s always great to listen to a show, even if most of it is speculation and assessing what Atlanta might do the rest of the offseason.
How bout the FALCONS?!?! If they can keep up their recent play, especially against New Orleans on the 26th, watch out!
the only thing adam jones has going for him over cody ross is youth. at best they are equal players. if you wouldnt trade jurrjens for cody ross, you shouldnt do it for adam jones. both trades would be stupid.
Hi DAP – great to hear from you. Interesting on Adam Jones. I’ll have to look at his numbers over the weekend. I remember looking at him at the trade deadline last season and thinking he looked pretty good, but I’m interested to see the numbers more closely.
Both players have negative UZR’s however, Ross has a negative UZR playing the corner outfield positions. If you put Adam Jones in LF his UZR would be much higher than it is playing CF just like Vernon Wells. Adam Jones has a way better arm than Ross.
Cody Ross is on the other side of 30. Adam Jones is 26 and hasn’t yet hit his peak years.
Their career OBP is about the same with Ross most likely to drop and Jones’s most likely to rise.
Jones has more power. Bill James predicts 24 HRs for Jones and 16 for Ross next year.
Bottom Lines is that Jones is younger, more likely to get better, has more power, hits for better average, and plays better defense than Ross. He’s just a better player.
Listening to most recent pod and think guy undervalue
Seth Smith an Wheeler. Smith’s splits against righties (most pitchers) is
awesome. Check out his splits AND Wheeler has awesome potential to fill in cf once Bourn is gone. Both those guys under control for one year of JJ, do the deal!
But are you solving any problems getting Seth Smith or Wheeler, other than the fact that you don’t have to re-sign Bourn? It’s a very cynical and lateral move. You admit that you are not going to try and sign Bourn to a deal, and you fail to add any power to your lineup with either one of those guys.
walker, just wanted to respond to your post about jones vs. cody ross.
first, you pointed out adam jones’ higher WAR. this drastic difference has mostly to do with playing time. ross has about 2/3rds the ABs of jones, also while playing mostly LF, which negativley effects his WAR. even if he is playing it well. by the way, baseball reference has ross’ WAR as 1.6, and adam jones’ at 1.7. different cites calculate it differently, but maybe its not as far aprt as you think.
second you cite UZR. you CAN check cody ross’ UZR and other defensive stats in CF, and youll find that cody ross outplays adam jones in center. really the only think jones wins in is arm strength. so ross is a better centerfielder than adam jones, and keep in mind, most teams see ross as only a servicbale centerfielder. what does that tell you about jones’ defense? its bad.
you cite jones as having better power, using a bill james projection. does bill james account for home ball park? does he account for playing time? i think he does. so cody ross playing part time in san fransisco, vs adam jones playing everyday in baltimore can account for the difference in his projections.
ross has a career slg% of .456 with 21 homers and 33 2Bs per 162. jones has a .437 slg% with 19 homers and 26 doubles per 162. ross has more power.
one more stat: WPA. ross has a career 3.56, while jones has a -1.03.
the one thing jones has going for him is his youth, ill give you that. but he is certinly NOT a better player than cody ross at this point (david that goes for you, too), and there is no way id be willing to trade jurrjens or prado hoping that adam jones would become more than a borderline 4th outfielder. if you want a player like adam jones, just sign cody ross. he will cost less money and no players in a trade, and is arguably a better player.
We can’t have cake & eat it too. Y’all were raggin’ on A-Gonzales all year, so gotta expect Wren would’ve done something…however, Simmons is supposed to be good defensive player as well as Wren is likely getting adequate defensive player to back Pastornicky initially. Think we pbby won’t get Seth Smith, and initially he didn’t look very good, but looking at him…I don’t think he would be too bad…but don’t see him as equivalent to Prado. Next year is going to be tough, especially if Heyward doesn’t make huge rebound. I’m looking forward to Julio Teheran.
DAP: I’ll echo Walker’s point — agree to disagree. I couldn’t care less about UZR, WPA, or WAR. I’m sure those are fine stats, but I don’t think that they define a player.
Adam Jones is 25 years old, and he’s got a ton of potential. His numbers are on a great trajectory, with his power totals increasing last year. I’m hearing that Cody Ross is seeking a 2- or 3-year contract, and Adam Jones will hit free agency after the 2013 — so we’d have him for two seasons. If we could have Adam Jones for two seasons (and possibly longer) when he’s in his mid-twenties and in the upswing of his career versus having a Cody Ross for two seasons when he’s in his early thirties and in a downswing of his career, I’d much rather have Adam Jones — UZR, WPA, WAR, whatever other obscure stats there are be damned.
All of this is moot, of course. From a realistic standpoint, I think Wren would rather pay $9-10 million over two years of Cody Ross rather than trading whatever players Baltimore would want for Adam Jones.
“From a realistic standpoint, I think Wren would rather pay $9-10 million over two years of Cody Ross rather than trading whatever players Baltimore would want for Adam Jones.”
i agree with you, because he is a very smart GM. I dont hate Adam Jones as a player. he’s fine, but hes not worth prado. and hes not worth jurrjens. orioles overvalue him, and they will never trade trade him for those two, so thats good for us, but Adam Jones is one of the most overrated players in baseball…you dont need WAR or UZR to tell you that.
personally, im looking forward to NEXT offseason, when free agent outfielders like Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Andre Ethier, Shane Victorino, Nick Swisher, BJ Upton, ect will all be free agents.
I agree Curt. Until the Braves get new ownership that cares about winning, they will never never never, ever sign/pursue big time free agents. The only way we keep winning is to continue to sign and draft well. The only problem is that developing your own players is only one aspect of building a championship team. You also have to be able to fill holes by signing a free agent here or there. And if we do sign a free agent it be a pitcher on the downside of their career(Lowe).
#47, if that rumor is true, then the Orioles continue to run that organization like a clown show. I’m really glad they turned that down and overvalue Jones as much as they do. Adam Jones is a player who will get traded to the Braves and find a new career low in most offensive categories. Do not want.
The only thing he has on Prado is more power and the ability to play center. He’s not necessarily a better defensive player, imo, and Prado has a really great shot at hitting .300 again, which is something Jones will never do with his plate discipline. I just don’t see how Adam Jones would be a major upgrade over what we already have. JMO.
By the way, I don’t believe that rumor about Wren offering Prado AND Jurrjens AND a prospect for Jones. Wren is not stupid enough to offer that, nor are the Orioles stupid enough to turn it down.
Nate, Adam Jones is not better than Cody Ross by any objective measure, other than his youth. If you want to ignore the fact and decide Jones is better, do it. But objectively, at best you could say they are equal. I don’t say this to talk up Cody Ross, just trying to display a relatively equatable player. No one here would EVER trade Jair Jurrejns or Martin Prado for Cody Ross. But for some reason, a similar, possibly worse player is worth both those guys together…and a prospect? It just crazy.
DAP — I agree with your point in #50. At this point, the Braves have $14.7 million obligated for 2013, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That includes:
Dan Uggla – $13.2 million
along with a bunch of options, including McCann, Hudson, Chipper. If those options vest, here’s what we’ll have:
McCann – $12 million
Chipper – $7 million
Hudson – $9 million
…Which adds another $28 million, running the total up to around $45 million. If this is Chipper’s final year (no sure thing, I think), that takes it down to about $38 million in obligated funds. I think that this time next year, the Braves will be very involved in several of those big free agent negotiations, especially for outfielders.
I think that a lot of the “Braves never go after free agents” talk is a bit short-sighted as well as unfocused. DAP — you’re right to point out the Derek Lowe and Kawakami signings. The fact that we’re not players for any of the big free agents this year — 1B (Pujols, Fielder), a SS that will command a long-term contract as well as big bucks (Rollins, Reyes), a starting pitcher (Buerhle, CJ Wilson), or OF (Willingham, Beltran) — is more a result of the Braves either having good, homegrown players at those positions (1B, SP, and Pastornicky/Simmons, who even if he’s not good now, they can’t commit longterm to one of those guys) OR having several big contracts (Chipper, Hudson) that would prohibit signing a big free agent.
Oh yeah — and then there’s that Prado guy on our roster, the guy that plays several positions and should be back to normal health next year, the guy that, I think, Wren would be a fool to trade away while he’s still good and affordable.
And would y’all really want the Braves to be a team that makes it a habit of signing free agents? Of paying top dollar for guys who may be at their peaks now, but a couple of years into their long-term contracts, begin to decline? I know it makes for an exciting offseason, but the GM’s job is to set up the team so that they’re celebrating in October, not December and January.
The Braves swooped in on KK because nobody knew anything about him and they overpayed for Lowe who was well past his prime. My point is we could never afford a player who is a big time commodity in their prime years.
The only big free agents in their prime the Braves have signed have been Brian Jordan, Galaragga and Maddux.
If you guys think we will be in on the Josh Hamilton bidding next year, I have a bridge to sell you.
I don’t think the Braves have to get in on signing or trying to sign any or all of the big free agents that come up season to season. That has never really been the approach around here. Most of what they do is through their own system and through trades. That being said, you can’t expect that every rookie that comes through your system is going to be McCann, Kimbrel or Heyward. There are going to be some misses. I just hope they address those needs in a proactive way instead of waiting two years for the next in-house candidate to come along.
At this point, re-signing Bourn would be a big step to me.
And to your point David, have we been doing any October celebrating that I missed? I get your point, but it isn’t like this team is reeling off championships with the team they have in place. When was the last time we even won a postseason series?
curt, josh hamilton, probably not, unless his value unexpectedly drops. but, there really are alot of free agent outfielders available next offseason. i think we will sign at least one, maybe two of them.
It’s really disheartening watching mlb network and hear Mitch Williams and Larry Bowa say sabermetrics are complete crap and shouldn’t be apart of the game. I tuned in for smart analysis and I hear this. I see why Bowa has been fired a few times and why Mitch Williams isn’t coaching. You can’t ignore facts.
It is difficult to tell why the Braves want to move Prado so badly. Yes, he hit just .260 with a measly, Pedro Feliz-esque .302 on-base percentage in 2011, but the 28-year old Prado hit very well in 2008, ’09 and ’10 at six different positions. If the Braves move him for the sake of moving him, or just to save four million dollars, it’s a bad move that makes them worse in the short term.
Merry Christmas! Just wondering if anyone can see McCann playing another position at times in the future? Playing catcher in Atlanta can be a drain; did it contribute to his collapse at the end of the year?
66 — I doubt they’ll try to move McCann to another position, for several reasons:
1) being a catcher, he’s naturally bound to have an extremely limited range for defensive purposes. The only other position that he could play would be 1B.
2) Freddie Freeman is, more than likely, going to be at 1B for a very long time in Atlanta.
3) Even being a backup 1B would be a huge stretch — NL catchers need to rest on their days off from catching, not playing another position.
I don’t think being a catcher contributed to his collapse at the end of the year. I think that what did it was a couple of things: the hurricane at the end of August preventing him (and the rest of the Braves) from playing at all, right at a time when they were playing well.
The other thing — and I’ll admit that this is probably too much Fredi-hating, but I think it’s true — was Fredi Gonzalez resting him on August 26, which was the game against the Mets right before the hurricane hit in NY. McCann hit 2 home runs against the Cubs the day before, and after the game he said that he finally felt like something clicked and on that day, he was seeing the ball better than he had in weeks (he was in a slump at that point). So what does Fredi do the very next day? Rests him. I guess it was because the Braves were facing a lefty (Chris Capuano), but still — if you know that you’re about to miss a couple of days of baseball because of the incoming hurricane, don’t bench McCann.
The Falcons game last night was almost as bad as the Bravos Sept. I’m surprised Brees didn’t give a shout our to Van Gorder for running that terrible zone D all night long. At some point you have to stop Drew Brees, otherwise they won’t win anything for a long time. It’s right there with the Braves having to beat the Phillies. Yeah they’re good, but you gave to find a way to be better.
#68 – I remember being absolutely furious when Fredi sat Mac that day. Mac, after that game, talked about having figured out a bunch of his batting issues and then to be sat. I’m stll incredulous.
#66 – it would certainly help to be able to move Mac to 1st at some point, but the point about Freddie is a good one. He should be at 1st for a long time and I’m quite confident he can’t play an outfield position.
Regardless, Mac will surely get another good, long extension.
71, Smith would still be good for Braves but only at the right price. However, the article mentions Spilborghs who wasn’t 100 % healthy in 2010. He is a great influence on young players and is ready for a much better year. A great #4 outfielder who always hustles. Grab him to round out the bench.
Next season should be fun. Especially since we play the AL east and with the extra wild card and one game playoff games. Nice to hear J hey working out. If he could click he could be the best all around player in the game.
#78, Zambrano, Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Ozzie Guillen… do they build clubhouses big enough for that much crazy? They are following the Omar Minaya plan for creating a complete disaster. Get your popcorn ready.
I just want to beat the Phillies. A World Series would be fantastic, but I really, really want to beat the Phillies.
#85 – Scary proposition. Adding Gio (lots of walks, but still an improvement) and Fielder and assuming with that added protection in the lineup, Werth is better. They could be much more formidable than we’re used to.
But don’t forget that we dumped 1/3rd of Lowe’s salary. Much stronger, we are.
I’m not sure that trade would ever be on the table. Seems like I read/heard that one of the reasons the Tigers delt him to us was because they thought he was too injury prone. I woundn’t mind Demon Young, though.
I’m going to go ahead and make my prediction for the NFC Champion as well as Super Bowl winner: the New York Giants.
Why? Because they beat Atlanta. Let’s take a look at teams in recent years that have eliminated Atlanta from postseasons in NFL and MLB:
2008-09 NFL: Arizona Cardinals (eventual NFC Champions)
2010 MLB: San Francisco Giants (won World Series)
2011 MLB: St. Louis Cardinals (won World Series)
2010-11 NFL: Green Bay Packers (Super Bowl winners)
To echo ABT’s recent tweet about the joys of being an Atlanta sports fan…when will the road to the championship stop going through Atlanta and END in Atlanta???
I have followed braves since 1955; they will gradually dump all of their yound talent one or two players a year before they have to negotiate big contracts with them. Without new ownership, we are kidding ourselves about the future. Get real if you think any big acquisitons are coming. Just pray they keep some of what they have. See ya!
Jerry, I totally agree. I have been preaching that for some time now.
As far as the dead site, this is a very active vibrant site. What do you propose we be discussing right now on here? How everyone else in the NL East is bypassing us, particularly if the Nats get Prince Fielder?
I’m all for it. Go. I think the Braves have as good a chance at finishing 4th in the division as the do 2nd.
Do you think Chipper’s comments were a way of getting the front office to keep Prado? Like hey, my knee hurt so bad after the season I could barely move. Maybe don’t trade my back up. Yeah they feel great after a month and a half rest, but when will I get a that amount of rest in the span of a 6 month season? By the way I’m 40.
Don’t know is anyone or everyone has seen Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, but I thought it was pretty great. David Fincher is one of my favorite directors. Saw the Descendants and thought it was slow as slow can be. Took the kids to see Tintin. I read the books as a kid and loved them. My oldest son is now obsessed with Tintin. That’s about it recently.
We are having a call tonight about a show, so if anyone has some ideas for us to discuss, other than the very obvious and tired stuff like the Braves not making any moves, let us know. I certainly want to go over that Chipper interview. I really didn’t like a bunch of his answers.
- Jack Wilson signing, obviously
- haven’t seen any of those movies yet, but I want to. Saw “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” and thought it was pretty slow and extremely hard to follow.
- in response to your tweet about whether the Wilson signing marks the end of our offseason moves — I think so. I really hope they keep Prado and wind up trading JJ. I don’t think they’ll be able to get what they want for the latter before the season starts, but if he performs well during the first few months, they’ll trade him by midseason.
Though he’s one unattractive fellow, Jack Wilson is a terrific fielding SS. I think he’s a great backup. I just hope Pastornicky can hold the job and we don’t need to rely on him as a starter. He can’t strikeout any more than Gonzo…
If Pastornicky struggles and we have to rely on Wilson as a everyday SS then it’s safe to say we will be looking for a SS at the trading deadline. Maybe the Blue Jays might trade their young SS. He looks like a good player. I forgot his name though.