Show #172: Interview with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus
Kevin talks about his Top 11 Braves prospects and the minor league system. And Spring Training story lines.
163 Responses to “Show #172: Interview with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus”
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February 13th, 2012 at 11:01 am
This was our first show conducted underwater.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
One thing about the Braves’ front office that may help them overcome the ownership situation is the way they are aggressive with local amateur talent.
Remember the stories of the Braves hiding out to scout Jason Heyward to undersell his talent, and telling him to take his walks so that other teams will not have a complete view of how great a hitter he was?
Going back to McCann, Francoeur and Davies, the Braves seem to be extremely aggressive with area high school talent. And it seems likely that local talent is more likely to sign for less money.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Shaun, good point, but that track record is pretty bleak. Other than McCann, all the local guys have bombed. Going back to even George Lombard. Obviously, the jury is still out on Heyward, but Macay McBride anyone?
February 13th, 2012 at 5:39 pm
Great show guys!!
I wonder why McGuirk was blowing all that smoke in his interview w/ DOB. Unless we have ownership that cares about this team as well as the city of Atlanta, I have a gloomy outlook for attendance & how the farm system will be looking if Liberty Media doesn’t change their tune. There are things to be optimistic about for the Braves this year; & frankly I think that the Phillies have more question marks than us.
February 13th, 2012 at 6:02 pm
BluesMan. Glad you liked the show.
I think that either McGuirk has really drunk all the corporate Kool Aid and believes what he says (stuff like we don’t really have a salary cap) or he does stuff like blame the fans for crummy attendance because he believes it’s the only lever he has to pull to affect any kind of change.
However, even if attendance were to jump, I kinda doubt that Liberty would up the payroll in a meaningful way. They seem quite happy to get the tax breaks and make the profit they are making as they bide time before selling the team. They’re really not motivated to do anything else.
February 13th, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Enjoyed the show…particularly the open weeping and wailing.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Enjoyed the show. Kevin managed to lower my expectations considerably… I agree that until a person owns the Braves no real progress will be made. The team wil tread water and hope for the best. Y’all ever thought about getting Keith Law on? He trashed this years prospects too and usually has good insights even though I often disagree.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:32 pm
We asked Keith Law on a couple of years ago and he politely declined. He’s dead to me. Not really. But sort of.
February 14th, 2012 at 1:41 am
Good show. Biggest surprise for me was that Kevin thinks Pastornicky will hold down the SS position, is a big leaguer, etc. I was picturing nothing but heartache out of that move.
This is the first Spring in ten years that I have absolutely no expectation for the Braves to compete for the division. Zero, zilch, nada.
So they’ll probably win 105 games and the World Series.
February 14th, 2012 at 8:40 am
Bub, that he is an upgrade offensively over A Gonz is not really much of an endorsement. Just wait until he has 23 errors and we will see what kind of pro he is.
And I totally agree on this season. I really could see them finishing 4th. If I hear them tell me one more time that they had the 4th best record at the beginning of September…
February 14th, 2012 at 10:02 am
Could be worse. We could be the Mets.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_new_york_mets_wilpon_alderson_madoff_021312
February 14th, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Great show guys. Depressing as hell with the projected bleak future of the organization, but it was a very informative show on the organization’s philosophy.
I never completely buy into what these guys say on prospects. It’s one man’s opinion. I remember this guy comparing Freeman to John Olerud a couple years ago. He didn’t seem too high on our young talent back then, but most of our team is made up of young talent right now, so he must have been a little wrong back in the last interview. Maybe he’s wrong on this stuff, too. Not every pitcher can be a projected ace. Not every hitter can have the Heyward hype. From listening to his opinion on Terdo’s age, I’m guessing he never thought Chase Utley would amount to much either.
Curt would be an offensive upgrade over the Gonz. Over under 60 errors for our infield this year? Thankfully we have Freddie, or it could be a lot worse. Think of how many throwing errors Freeman saved last year. There should be a staton that, or maybe there already is one.
February 14th, 2012 at 4:24 pm
I am offensive
February 14th, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Hahahaha
February 14th, 2012 at 5:38 pm
I don’t think it’s unrealistic to expect the Braves to finish in the top 3 of the division & be a Wild Card contender. IMO, We are the hardest division in the MLB now (on paper). I just cant see the Phillies winning the division again. There’s one factor I haven’t heard anyone talk about, & that’s AGE. Their sluggers (apart from that d-bag Hunter Pence) are past their prime, the most all around dangerous hitter is probably Victorino. I think (& hope) they could fall mightily this year. The Marlins scare me more than any other team.
February 14th, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Bluesman, The Braves scare me more than any other team. And not in a good way.
Curt, upgrade over A-Gonz might not be much of an endorsement, but I did actually picture a disaster worse than Sea Bass with Tyler. Something like slightly worse offense and way worse defense.
February 14th, 2012 at 9:07 pm
If I could I’d post a picture of the gold “Braves” charm the Rev gave me for Valentine’s Day. But I can’t. So I won’t.
February 15th, 2012 at 12:16 am
Totally bad year coming for the Bravisto Boys. Minor league shortstop who will have many errors and will bat .220 at best. J Hey will have to figure out his head before he can figure out his game…not looking for much there. Pitching will be good but can’t score runs except for the other team. Chipper, bless his heart, will be hurt. Go Braves!
February 15th, 2012 at 8:06 am
Cleeeeeeeeeeeeduuuuuuuuuuusssssss!
February 15th, 2012 at 11:36 am
Tcc – good to hear from you.
Predicting what Heyward will do offensively this year will be a big sport this Spring, for sure. So, what do you think? As bad as last year?
Here’s my prediction for now: .265 / .340 /.450
February 15th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Good video interview with Greg Walker: http://timesfreepress.com/videos/2012/feb/15/5987/
February 15th, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Great show, fellas! When it comes to evaluating talent, we all need to keep in mind…these guys don’t have a PHD in Baseball. They do it for a living, but it doesn’t mean they have the slightest idea on all players or clubs. Keith Law may be good at what he does (“may” being the correct word), but just because you can recite the alphabet, doesn’t mean you’re going to win a spelling bee. Some ‘insights” from scouts and others that are “experts”.
1. Should we draft Manning or Ryan Leaf?
2. Dustin Pedroia is too short and crummy to be a big leaguer
3. Matt Leinhart will be #1 pick and sure fire NFL QB
4. Who wouldn’t want NBA #1 pick Quame Brown?
5. Stan Kasten is a great person to run a professional team
6. Etc…
These guys do what we do…guess. And SABR guys are even worse. When it serves their purpose, they use numbers to back up everything. When they don’t, they say “small sample size” or wait 5 years unitl the player’s productions goes down then they say “See! I told you so!”. The Braves will ALWAYS be in the top half of MLB clubs. This gives them the chance to makes the playoffs more often than not. So all the experts can stick it. I’m down with the Braves.
PS: If we had a 33K seat ballpark, we’d sell out every game. Atlanta is the ONLY major southern city with a MLB team. It’s the only city in College Football country with a club. Listen to talk radio around here. They’re STILL talking about college football. So what are you gonna do. The Braves rank #3 in MLB fan’s favorite teams, so they have a huge following….all across the country. So attendance is all relative.
February 15th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
“but just because you can recite the alphabet, doesn’t mean you’re going to win a spelling bee.”
hilarious…I’m looking forward to more Vinnie blogs. Excellent points. I’m getting excited despite myself.
February 15th, 2012 at 1:19 pm
JJ says he’s at 80% heading in to the spring. Yikes. http://www.foxsportsdetroit.com/01/30/12/QA-Jair-Jurrjens-says-hes-80-percent/landing.html?blockID=655788
February 15th, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Good (and depressing) article about the TV deals in baseball. Braves not even in the conversation. But Phils and Nats may be cashing in soon. http://bit.ly/zpLWa2