Curt, did you check out the explanation for the SI power rankings up top? It’s completely based on SABR stuff, ignoring wins and concentrating on what they figure predicts future wins. With all the other knee-jerk power rankings out there, I kind of like having this one. If for no other reason than possibly proving SABR predictions aren’t that much more reliable than gut-feeling, momentum-swing predictions.
I would be interested in seeing which rankings took a snapshot of the league at, say, the 1/3 season mark, and better predicted the end of the year. Of course injuries and so forth would effect both results, but since it should effect them equally (subtracting WAR on the one side, making journalists go “well now that Berkman’s down, we gotta drop the Cards a few slots” on the other).
I find it supremely interesting that the Nats are current SABR favorites, because they are not quite so embraced by the rest of us yet. But even more interesting are SABR’s love for Philly, the slumping Cardinals, the last place Sox and Yanks, and SABR’s hate for the first place Braves, the contending Reds, and the Mets.
Bubdylan, it’s based purely on Fangraph’s Wins Above Replacement. It doesn’t exactly portend future wins. It’s more of an indication of a team’s underlying performance. When we are looking at a sample of the just under two months of the season so far, and nothing else, we could be seeing plenty of flukey performances that affect a team’s WAR that aren’t likely to continue going forward.
Probably the best thing to do if you want to try to rank where teams will end up at season’s end (say, if you have something riding on those rankings) is to consider underlying performance so far in addition to preseason projections, and to weigh this season’s underlying performances more and more heavily as the season goes on.
#77, to quote the site: “The system used to rank the teams is based not on the current standings or a gut feeling about team quality, but on how well they’ve performed at the underlying traits that predict future performance better than wins and losses.”
You may only be saying that it doesn’t succeed in doing this. But what I’m saying is that this is the claim of SI Power Rankings, and the part of it I’m most interested in monitoring. If SABR stats can’t predict the future, we may as well stick with Wins and RBI’s.
Point taken on supplementing the rankings with projections, but again, I’m most interested in contrasting one way of ranking with the other.
Bubdylan @78, “…predict future performance better than wins and losses,” so I think what they mean is that it is more reliable than a team’s win-loss record, if we are trying to predict future wins and losses, but it doesn’t mean it’s perfect or the best way to predict.
I think it’s just a compelling way to get a fairly easy, objective ranking. It’s not running several complex formulas, it’s not just eyeballing and coming up with power rankings and, most importantly to me, it actually defines what SI means by “power rankings.”
So many sites just throw up power rankings without any sort of explanation. It’s just someone’s opinion based on eyeballing standings and rosters and we really don’t know what it’s an opinion of.
I suspect they just flubbed on the White Sox but I don’t know. Maybe there is another variable. But I doubt they would have some of those other teams in certain spots if there were other variables. Every other team is perfectly aligned with team WAR, so I think they just messed up.
According to DOB, Fredi pulled Francisco aside and gave him a talking-to about the bat flip and home run trot from last night’s game; and, he talked with Dusty Baker about it as well. Gotta say — classy move on Fredi’s part.
What a dismal series. The continued inability of the Braves to win without Chipper is a serious problem. That they can’t even score any runs without him. Make the move now. Francisco ain’t getting it done.