May 20, 2012

Show #184: Braves Remain in First and Take Series from Rays

A great series win in Tampa, the starting pitching, the record without Chipper and the trouble with EOF and Venters.

 

 

201 Responses to “Show #184: Braves Remain in First and Take Series from Rays”

  1. 1
    Bubdylan Says:

    Jive Talkin’ is a great tune. I can’t listen to more than 2 Bee Gees tunes in a row, but I love when just one pops up on my MP3 shuffle.

    Yes, PLEASE pay Bourn. Let McCann go to the AL and rake in the dough. Wherever he goes, I’ll pick them for my AL team. But Bourn is absolutely the thing we’ve been missing most. Even if his personality and Braves-passion is in Garret Anderson territory. Give him the 5 years. Our two big free agents: Uggla and Bourn. Slugger and leadoff. Three championships.

    “Running the Numbers” segment took the show up a notch. I love it.

    It’s bad that we have a hard time winning without Chipper, but how cool is it that he’s that much of a boost when he’s in there? I never ever saw that coming. I do think those numbers will even out a bit.

    Agree with y’all that Venters is the bigger concern because of his role. Somebody named Bubdylan said the pen would be a concern (course, he said a lot of things…)

  2. 2
    Walker Says:

    We aren’t going to sign Bourn and quite frankly we shouldn’t. No way we are are paying more than 11 million for a centerfielder who is having a career year. Speed is a main part of his game and that declines with age. We are a mid market club and we compete consistently because we don’t sign guys to huge unreasonable contracts. We draft, only sign key core guys, and use our farm system to trad for needs.

  3. 3
    Walker Says:

    Regarding Heyward , I noticed you all just talked about his batting average as a way of critiquing his play. It’s a huge mistake to do that. Heyward’s overall skills of getting on base, and defensive range unfortunately fly over people’s head’s. He’s actually according to WAR has been more valuable to the Braves this year than Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann.

    And yes I would take Jason Heyward any day of the week because his peripheral skills are off the charts and his hitting skills will only get better. And saying he’s been bad more than he’s been good is simply not telling the truth about the guy. Just like Fredi Gonzalez was blind to bench him last year, people will continue to undervalue the guy.

  4. 4
    Steve Says:

    @3 – Walker it’s not just BA with Heyward. Here’s his slash line this past week:
    .227 .292 .273 . And for the past 2 weeks: .213 .288 .426. And that’s what we said, the past two weeks, particularly, not good. Not hitting, not getting on base, not hitting for power. And, in the past 2 weeks, 15 SO in 47 ABs.

  5. 5
    Steve Says:

    Bub – thanks about Running the Numbers.

  6. 6
    David Says:

    Great show as always, guys. A few thoughts in response…

    Y’all mentioned Delgado’s “one bad inning” in his Rays start — but really, that wasn’t his only bad inning, even though it was the only one in which he gave up runs. Even in his first inning, which was 1-2-3, he went 3-2 to the first two hitters and started getting his pitch count up. The second inning, he walked two guys, then got a bit lucky to get out of it with the Heyward-McCann double play. As a pitcher, it’s good to get out of jams, but I also think throwing a lot of “high stress pitches” can cause a pitcher to wear down sooner and have impact later in the game.

    Minor’s struggles…Minor to bullpen, bring up Teheran? Medlen as starter — no, cause he can’t get stretched out — unless you send Medlen down to the minors to get stretched out, move Minor to the bullpen, and bring up Teheran for a few spot starts while Medlen’s getting stretched out. Which seems all too confusing and they’d be messing with too many guys. Don’t know what to do with Minor, other than to hope that he’ll get it together for a good stretch.

    I would agree that Bourn is worth around 12 million. One of you said that he’ll probably get 5 years at $60 million — and I hope that would be from the Braves. They don’t have anyone else lined up that could play CF and leadoff as well as Bourn does — it’s not coming from the minor leagues, and while Shane Victorino is intriguing, he’s not the dynamic player Bourn is. Sign Bourn to an extension, let McCann DH in the AL (I agree with you Bub), and bring up Bethancourt. Oh, also sign David Ross to another contract after this year.

    Heyward — As one of the guys who, earlier in the season, had “Heyward blinders” on, I’ve recently backed off him a bit. I agree that he’s not hitting well enough to be in the top half of the lineup, and for now, hitting 6/7 is where he needs to be. Steve, you wondered what he’s hit the last two weeks and four weeks. Last two weeks: .208/.300/.396. Last four weeks: .209/.320/372

    However, I will say that it’s encouraging to see him coming up with clutch hits and making pitchers work against him.

    I’m gonna go 4-3 this week. We lose both Minor starts and the Delgado start. The thought of those two guys pitching in Cincinnati’s bandbox makes me want to watch something on Netflix and follow along on gameday…And are y’all sure that we’ll miss Strasburg? He pitched yesterday, so won’t that line him up for Friday or Saturday?

  7. 7
    Steve Says:

    @6 – Yeah, I think I blew it on the Strasburg thing. I’ll blame it on ESPN’s pitching probables.

  8. 8
    DAP Says:

    hey guys, Bourn turns 30 this offseason (december), not 32. id give him 5 years $60mil max. its $12 mil per year.

    You are right, there are no real comparisons, because Bourn has no equal on defense, and as long as he gets on base at a reasonable rate, he will be a pretty good offensive player.

    walker “Speed is a main part of his game and that declines with age.”

    there are plenty of players that this is not true about. alot of speed first players keep thier speed. its all about how healthy his legs stay. it is a risk, because if his legs go, there goes his defensive value and alot of his offensive value too.

  9. 9
    Walker Says:

    @Steve

    Showing stats from a two week interval doesn’t mean a whole lot in a long season. Take into account slumps(Which all players go through), what his overall stats are now and what they will end up being. No doubt he needs to improve and definitely will improve. But Im just sayin, we get more excited about Pastornicky going 6-19 but in reality Heyward contributed way more to this team the past couple of weeks.

  10. 10
    George Says:

    I think that we’ll still need a good story with either Minor, Teheran or even Redmond or remarkable rebound Jurrjens; or a late amazing successful emergence of starting Livan or Medlin in order for us to win the division. The Nationals aren’t going away, as soon as Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper become a solid back to back hitting pair, expect them to be on the track of potential Braun, Fielder pair…especially when they get Michael Morse back. And you can expect the Phillies to come around whether their offense gets in real gear or not. I don’t know what to expect from the Marlins, but they could be a force too. However, as good as the division is, the quality of every team in the division may help Atlanta because each team will likely beat up on each other. As yet, we have not even played every team in our division, so it’s going to be a very competitive and fun summer to watch. We are in a great position, but it’s WAY too soon to put Atlanta as a lock to win the division…it’s going to be a horse race. At least at this point things are going well and we are healthy…so Great so far!

  11. 11
    George Says:

    Don’t expect us to win 100 games…that’s really unlikely and impractical (IMO).

  12. 12
    George Says:

    Dont be surprised if Mariners offer Bourn the money.

  13. 13
    George Says:

    I may be All WET, but I am looking for Minor to turn things all around against Cincy today…mainly because their best hitters (Votto & Bruce) are left handers. If he is somehow able to weather that storm, maybe he can get things going in the right direction.

  14. 14
    Shaun Says:

    Heyward is fascinating because he’s so controversial, almost to the point of polarizing, and when one brings him up, you know it’s going to be a good discussion.

    There is no doubt he’s shown flashes of poor play and there may be a few people who have overrated him. But I think there are also many who have underrated him.

    I don’t think he’s shown more bad than good in his career. As I commented last week, by some measures Heyward has been about as valuable or perhaps more valuable than Giancarlo Stanton over his career.

    Heyward has 9.5 career Wins Above Replacement per Baseball Reference.
    Stanton has 7.6 WAR per B-R.

    Heyward has 8.5 career WAR per FanGraphs.
    Stanton has 8.1 per FanGraphs.

    I think you guys hit on why: Heyward is perhaps more streaky than some, maybe because of his skill set and perhaps because of his age. I don’t know that he’ll ever be a huge batting-average hitter nor do I think he’s a huge power hitter. So he’s going to put the ball in the field of play a lot, so when he’s not drawing walks and the hits aren’t falling/finding holes, it’s going to really show.

    Also, I think he was so hyped that when he does have his downs, everyone takes notice, whereas if someone like Pastornicky has a down period, everyone can just chalk it up to him being a less-hyped rookie.

    Maybe to some it’s tiresome but to me it’s always fun to discuss Heyward. I think it’s because he’s so talented, was so hyped coming in and his skills are somewhat unique for a player with his talent.

  15. 15
    Shaun Says:

    DAP @8, I think you are right about Bourn. There are plenty of speedy players who remain pretty speedy into their mid-30′s. There are a few that remain speedy as they approach 40.

    I think the biggest *problem* with signing Bourn long term is that, while he’s a good hitter, he’s not a great hitter. I think he’ll provide plenty of defensive value for a while. I think he’ll of course be a fine baserunner. But I don’t know that he’ll add much on offense as he ages, especially if a team inserts him into the leadoff spot so that he gets more plate appearances than any player on the team.

  16. 16
    Bubdylan Says:

    I agree Bourn’s speed is as likely to hold up as not. For five-year contracts, I think player age concerns are overrated. It’s a coin toss. There’s no guarantee young players will keep their production (McLouth), and even our most dreaded recent old-guy contracts (Chipper and Lowe) have not been the albatrosses we feared.

    By that I mean we’re in the much feared last years of both Chipper’s and Lowe’s contract. One is hurting us and one isn’t. AND neither of them is keeping us from contending. AND in fact both players are having fine years, just unfortunately not for the Braves in Lowe’s case.

    I’m fine with a “Buy Now Pay Later” mentality on a couple of select free agents. Bourn and Uggla seem like the perfect guys to take that risk with. It’s all a gamble, but a couple of 5 year, 10-13 million gambles for players less than 35 seems like as good a management of limited funds a contending team can hope for. If the last couple years of Uggla and Bourn are down years, so be it. Like I said, we’re living with Lowe’s contract just fine.

    Having this core locked up for the next few years seems like a fine way to contend:

    Bourn
    Uggla
    Freeman
    Heyward
    Prado

    Delgado
    Beachy
    Teheran
    Minor
    Kimbrel
    Venters

    That’s what I’d build my team around. Leaves plenty of money to fill in the gaps. Subtracting Bourn from that would be a huge blow, one of the biggest possible.

    I’m wasting my breath, though. The Braves won’t go after Bourn. :(

  17. 17
    Harrison Says:

    I’m a regular listener and fan of the podcast for over a year now. I enjoy the podcast quite a bit, even though I don’t always agree with the opinions of the hosts. This week I really felt like you all missed the mark with the Bourn contract talk and–in particular–with the comparison to Andrew McCutchen’s 5 year 51.5 million dollar contract.

    I want to preface my complaint with an admission: I don’t know how much Bourn is likely to make on the free agent market this winter. I think it would be possible to get a rough idea of how much Bourn might cost by considering contracts given to similarly talented outfielders of similar age and correcting those numbers for current market, but I have not taken the time to do that work (or seen any articles on Braves blogs, where those bloggers have put in the time and work).

    However, McCutchen and his contract is not a good place to start to try and get an idea of what Bourn is worth. Comparing his contract to the one Bourn will get this winter is like comparing apples to oranges. McCutchen was not even close to free agency when he signed his contract. The contract pays him for his last per-arbitration year, what would be all of his arbitration years, and a few years after that. Here’s how McCutchen’s contract breaks down year-by-year (I’m getting these numbers from cot’s baseball contracts): 2012-0.5M, 13-4.5M, 14-7.5M, 15-10M, 16-13M, 17-14M, 18-14.5M (2018 is a club option year). McCutchen is a younger center fielder who is more talented than Bourn, but is limited in what he can make by the fact that he is not yet a free agent. Since Bourn will be a free agent after this year, his contract will certainly not start with him getting paid 0.5M a year. To be comparable to Bourn’s situation you would need to look for examples of outfielders who 1) were entering free agency and not arbitration eligible players; 2) had above average talent (very good, but not superstar level players); 3) were of a similar age to Bourn (i.e. late twenties to early thirties). If you could find a couple of players who fit that mold, they might give you a good idea of what kind of contract to expect for Bourn.

  18. 18
    Shaun Says:

    I think Bourn’s speed will hold up okay and of course his defensive instincts should hold up just fine. So he’ll provide plenty of value on that side of the ball plus on the basepaths for the next 4-6 years, even if he’s not quite as fast as he is now. The bat is where I think it will show because he doesn’t have some outstanding hit tool, he doesn’t walk a whole lot and doesn’t hit for any power. But I don’t think he’ll be a zero with the bat and his defense and baserunning should allow him to remain valuable. I just don’t know if he’ll be worth to the Braves what some team like Washington or some others will be willing to offer.

    By the way, great show guys. One of the more entertaining I’ve heard since I’ve been listening.

  19. 19
    Bubdylan Says:

    Fingers crossed for Mike Minor. I’m afraid riding it out with him is the best choice unless we get a new starter from somewhere. All the internal options seem potentially more damaging than sweating out every 5th game. C’mon, Mike, just give us a breather: a couple of good games. You’ve got the stuff.

  20. 20
    Steve Says:

    @17 – Harrison thanks for listening and taking the time to join the comments board. Don’t be a stranger.

    And you’re absolutely right (someone else pointed it out, too). We missed the arb years component of the McCutcheon deal. That said, I still believe Bourn will get $12 – $13MM a year for five years.

  21. 21
    Bubdylan Says:

    Here’s a helpful round-up of our 2013 Contract Issues from mlb.com.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/2013-contract-issues-atlanta-braves.html

    From my chair, the relevant names are:

    Free Agents:
    Bourn
    Ross

    Options:
    McCann
    Huddy

    Arbitration, 1st year:
    Heyward
    Venters
    Hanson
    Medlen

    Arby, 3rd year:
    Prado

    So, we stand to gain around 37 million from Chipper, Lowe, Bourn, Jurrjens, and Diaz departing.

    Then we’ll need _________ dollars to pay raises for the 5 arby guys. Can someone estimate that number?

    Leaving ________ dollars to fill needs at CF and 3B, plus bench and whatever little stuff (starting pitcher? lol) we need.

    This offseason will be verrry juicy. Wren’s biggest test yet.

  22. 22
    Chris Says:

    Heyward has K issues (just like Freeman actually) and the amazing plate discipline he showed initially has dipped into only very good range. However if you look at the whole picture Freeman and Heyward have had very similar seasons. Freeman has wOBA .346, Heyward .344, Freeman wRC+ 120, Heyward wRC+ 118. So ask yourself why are you disappointed in Heyward but not Freeman (really shouldn’t be for either of course)? It can really only be expectations. Both have been incredibly streaky but isn’t that often a product of youth?

    Also you’ll never fully appreciate Heyward if you are still a devotee of the archaic batting average or don’t value defense enough. Heyward is the best corner OF in the game. That’s extremely valuable no matter what he does at the plate. People celebrate the defense of an average defender like Freeman far more when Heyward is the one who consistently saves far more runs.

    It seems expectations will always hamper our views of Heyward, but we can still appreciate the extremely valuable skills he brings if we use better analysis.

  23. 23
    Bubdylan Says:

    Ugh. Minor is so annoying right now. I still believe he’s gonna be good, but I wish they’d get another pitcher and send him down. He doesn’t look like the same guy that was dominating in ST and MiLB.

  24. 24
    Leah Says:

    It’s a Minor Monday.

  25. 25
    Bubdylan Says:

    1-2-3 inning, and he had a little skip in his step leaving the mound. Crossing my fingers for a miracle of confidence born.

  26. 26
    Bubdylan Says:

    Mike Leake. 7 outs in a row.

    The Braves don’t always suck. But when they do, they suck plenty.

    Truth be told, I’m just surprised to find us tied up with them after 2.5, should be a telling bottom of the 3rd.

  27. 27
    Bubdylan Says:

    Wow, Minor looked good for the first batter all night just now… oh, please, please, please…

  28. 28
    Bubdylan Says:

    Sigh, homer by the pitcher. Screw.

  29. 29
    Bubdylan Says:

    Thank you sir, can I have another?

  30. 30
    Bubdylan Says:

    Minor’s given up more HR’s in the NL, third most in all of baseball. Get him OUT of here.

  31. 31
    Bubdylan Says:

    Third homer in a row. I hate Mike Minor.

  32. 32
    Walker Says:

    Minor’s gotta go back to the Minors

  33. 33
    Walker Says:

    I’d rather have JJ’s broken bat singles.

  34. 34
    David Says:

    Well, so much for the argument that Minor’s struggles are mainly from pitching out of the stretch.

  35. 35
    Bubdylan Says:

    Only person I hate more than Minor right this moment is Derek Lowe.

  36. 36
    David Says:

    Minor is at NINETY SIX pitches through 4 innings. The Reds’ batters are looking like the Braves.

  37. 37
    Bubdylan Says:

    Minor’s struggles ARE mainly from pitching the stretch. “I have nothing left to prove in the minors” – that’s a stretch.

  38. 38
    Bubdylan Says:

    Good grief, I really can’t believe this. Leake has retired ten in a row. I mean, it’s one thing for Minor to be predictably awful, but seriously, on the same night we can’t hit Mike Leake?

    It can’t REALLY be the Monday thing, can it?

  39. 39
    Bubdylan Says:

    12 in a row by Leake. If he gets to 15, I’m going to smash my thumb with a hammer. I’ll send pics.

  40. 40
    Bubdylan Says:

    lol, I rarely use all caps, but I CAN NOT BELIEVE THIS SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII…..

  41. 41
    Kate Says:

    Should we just stop watching Monday games?

  42. 42
    David Says:

    You guys remember Mike Leake — Reds’ starting pitcher in the Brooks Conrad walk-off grand slam game. That game, Leake went 6 IP, gave up 3 runs (1 earned), 6 k, gave up 5 hits. Left the game with a 9-3 lead.

    So, really, a three-run deficit is nothing. Um, yeah.

  43. 43
    Bubdylan Says:

    Uggla saves my thumb.

  44. 44
    David Says:

    I have a theory about the Monday curse. The players are too busy pondering the points made in the new ABT podcast from the night before, so they tend to overanalyze while they’re playing.

  45. 45
    Bubdylan Says:

    #44, funny. I just read Hinske’s lips talking to Chipper: “Pretty sure Curt and Hammy are the same guy.”

  46. 46
    Curt Says:

    #45 = awesome squared

  47. 47
    Bubdylan Says:

    Francisco no catcho.

  48. 48
    Bubdylan Says:

    Never seen anything like Livan. Somebody said he sold his soul to the devil. Looking at his Satan-skin glove, I think he made the deal and then ate him.

  49. 49
    Curt Says:

    and 18 of his minions

  50. 50
    Bubdylan Says:

    lol.

  51. 51
    Bubdylan Says:

    Medlen is filthy.

  52. 52
    David Says:

    but before eating him, he threw sunflower seeds at him

  53. 53
    Walker Says:

    You know, I’m kind of changing my opinion on Medlen’s role. I’m starting to think him starting would be a good idea. Especially when Moylan comes back.

  54. 54
    Bubdylan Says:

    Walker, watching Meds tonight, it’s hard not to feel that way. He was so awesome that first stretch in the majors.

    Crap, Prado robbed.

  55. 55
    Curt Says:

    Meanwhile in AAA – JJ: 4.1 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 6 ER,

  56. 56
    Bubdylan Says:

    What the hell happened to the Braves’ approach at the plate tonight?

  57. 57
    Bubdylan Says:

    #55, JJ’s toast. Sipping sad whiskey at the Kawakami Bar & Grill.

  58. 58
    Bubdylan Says:

    lol, did the broadcaster just say “Uggla takes a ball high for a strike”?

  59. 59
    Walker Says:

    Damn, Do you know what kind of prospects we could have gotten for JJ last year?

  60. 60
    Bubdylan Says:

    Oooh, make up call from the ump on ball three to McCann I think. Tying run at the plate is Heyward’s upcoming grounder.

  61. 61
    Walker Says:

    Medlen will be in the rotation after tonight. Mark it down.

  62. 62
    Walker Says:

    LOL @ 60

    Let’s see

  63. 63
    Bubdylan Says:

    Sean Marshall versus Heyward in the 9th. An unstartable force meets a ill, moveable object.

  64. 64
    Bubdylan Says:

    God, that was the most frustrating ballgame I’ve watched this year. I spit it out. Ptooey!

  65. 65
    Steve Says:

    @61 – no way. Livan before Medlen.

    @59 – love that

  66. 66
    Curt Says:

    Worse? Minor’s start against them or Leake’s start against us? Guy is now 1-5. They seem like they really don’t bear down against weaker starting pitching.

  67. 67
    Walker Says:

    Giving up 4 runs isn’t really a horrible start so why did it seem horrible?

  68. 68
    Walker Says:

    At least we have the ace going tomorrow.

  69. 69
    Bubdylan Says:

    #66, Minor’s start was worse, but it’s close. I wanna say, “no, no, these are pro ballplayers, it only looks like they don’t play their A game when the opposing pitcher is weak,” but nah. If I’ve learned anything over the years watching games it’s that they actually do behave motivationally very much like the fans figure.

    Time to see some of that famous resiliency tomorrow.

  70. 70
    Curt Says:

    Walker, he’s awful and he totally shut us down. The fact that we had what, 2 hits off of him? Another end of the rotation guy dominating the Braves. It makes no sense.

  71. 71
    Walker Says:

    @Curt

    I agree our offense was horrible. I was referring to just Minor’s performance. Giving up 4 runs isnt a quslity start but it isn’t horrible either. I guess giving up 3 solo shots in an inning will do that.

    The home plate umpire was horrible tonight though.

  72. 72
    eric Says:

    I don’t think Leake is terrible. He had good stuff last night. Former #8 overall pick. He’s only 24 and he posted a sub 4.00 ERA in 29 appearances last year.

    He’s like Minor – a young guy off to a rocky start still trying to figure out how to get through a major league lineup. Tonight, he just happened to bring it against the Braves. I think I remember Leake doing that to the Braves last season as well.

    I thought Minor was good for most of the night. I was happy to see him get through two more innings after the 4th, too.

  73. 73
    Curt Says:

    If it is all about the numbers, Leake is not having a good year so far. Up until last night, that is.

  74. 74
    Curt Says:

    Previously winless Mike Leake (1-5) came in with an 8.53 home ERA and proceeded to hold the Braves to two hits and one run in eight innings.

  75. 75
    Curt Says:

    As the Braves continue to play good ball, they continue to plummet in SI’s power rankings. 2-1 in TB gets you dropped to 8.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/05/21/power.rankings.week.6/index.html?xid=cnnbin

  76. 76
    Bubdylan Says:

    Curt, did you check out the explanation for the SI power rankings up top? It’s completely based on SABR stuff, ignoring wins and concentrating on what they figure predicts future wins. With all the other knee-jerk power rankings out there, I kind of like having this one. If for no other reason than possibly proving SABR predictions aren’t that much more reliable than gut-feeling, momentum-swing predictions.

    I would be interested in seeing which rankings took a snapshot of the league at, say, the 1/3 season mark, and better predicted the end of the year. Of course injuries and so forth would effect both results, but since it should effect them equally (subtracting WAR on the one side, making journalists go “well now that Berkman’s down, we gotta drop the Cards a few slots” on the other).

    I find it supremely interesting that the Nats are current SABR favorites, because they are not quite so embraced by the rest of us yet. But even more interesting are SABR’s love for Philly, the slumping Cardinals, the last place Sox and Yanks, and SABR’s hate for the first place Braves, the contending Reds, and the Mets.

  77. 77
    Shaun Says:

    Bubdylan, it’s based purely on Fangraph’s Wins Above Replacement. It doesn’t exactly portend future wins. It’s more of an indication of a team’s underlying performance. When we are looking at a sample of the just under two months of the season so far, and nothing else, we could be seeing plenty of flukey performances that affect a team’s WAR that aren’t likely to continue going forward.

    Probably the best thing to do if you want to try to rank where teams will end up at season’s end (say, if you have something riding on those rankings) is to consider underlying performance so far in addition to preseason projections, and to weigh this season’s underlying performances more and more heavily as the season goes on.

  78. 78
    Bubdylan Says:

    #77, to quote the site: “The system used to rank the teams is based not on the current standings or a gut feeling about team quality, but on how well they’ve performed at the underlying traits that predict future performance better than wins and losses.”

    You may only be saying that it doesn’t succeed in doing this. But what I’m saying is that this is the claim of SI Power Rankings, and the part of it I’m most interested in monitoring. If SABR stats can’t predict the future, we may as well stick with Wins and RBI’s.

    Point taken on supplementing the rankings with projections, but again, I’m most interested in contrasting one way of ranking with the other.

  79. 79
    Bubdylan Says:

    Also, while I, too, thought it was strictly WAR based, I saw the Whitesox were out of order, so I concluded that there was some other variable in play. But maybe they just flubbed that one.

  80. 80
    Shaun Says:

    Bubdylan @78, “…predict future performance better than wins and losses,” so I think what they mean is that it is more reliable than a team’s win-loss record, if we are trying to predict future wins and losses, but it doesn’t mean it’s perfect or the best way to predict.

    I think it’s just a compelling way to get a fairly easy, objective ranking. It’s not running several complex formulas, it’s not just eyeballing and coming up with power rankings and, most importantly to me, it actually defines what SI means by “power rankings.”

    So many sites just throw up power rankings without any sort of explanation. It’s just someone’s opinion based on eyeballing standings and rosters and we really don’t know what it’s an opinion of.

    I suspect they just flubbed on the White Sox but I don’t know. Maybe there is another variable. But I doubt they would have some of those other teams in certain spots if there were other variables. Every other team is perfectly aligned with team WAR, so I think they just messed up.

  81. 81
    Bubdylan Says:

    They should just call it Pow-WAR Rankings, then. I just threw up a little.

  82. 82
    David Says:

    According to DOB, Fredi pulled Francisco aside and gave him a talking-to about the bat flip and home run trot from last night’s game; and, he talked with Dusty Baker about it as well. Gotta say — classy move on Fredi’s part.

  83. 83
    Shaun Says:

    I hope Fredi told Dusty, “well, you guys shouldn’t have released him”…but both Dusty and Fredi probably would have doubled over in laughter.

  84. 84
    Shaun Says:

    Just asked Ben Duronio on Twitter about the White Sox being out of place in SI’s power rankings. It was just a mistake. I know you can all rest easier tonight.

  85. 85
    Bubdylan Says:

    Good move by Fredi, I must admit.

    (spits)

  86. 86
    Bubdylan Says:

    Nice start, Bourn.

    Freeman leads the NL in swinging at the first pitch, and just did it again. To his credit, it was a strike.

  87. 87
    Bubdylan Says:

    Pastornicky played that grounder stupidly. That’s getting old.

  88. 88
    Bubdylan Says:

    Well, there’s two earned runs that almost shouldn’t be. How could Tyler not charge that ball with Stubbs running? Ugh. Completely understand why Hudson uses his own SS. Beachy was screwed this inning.

  89. 89
    Bubdylan Says:

    Sigh, I’m here alone again, ain’t I?

  90. 90
    Bubdylan Says:

    Three pitch K for Francisco. Boo.

    Ross homer coming here. I call it.

  91. 91
    Bubdylan Says:

    By homer, I mean strike three looking. :(

  92. 92
    Bubdylan Says:

    Okay, guess I’ll mosey over to the mlb site. Yuck.

  93. 93
    Curt Says:

    I’m just complaining about how stupid i think these small ballparks are to anyone who will listen. I hate this type of baseball. Who needs steroids when you play in a little league park.

    Now if the freaking Braves could actually hit some.

  94. 94
    Leah Says:

    Bub! Don’t do it! Come back! They will corrupt you an then eat you alive! I hate it over there. Yuck indeed.

  95. 95
    Curt Says:

    If we can just keep them from hitting 7 homers in 2 games………….

  96. 96
    Walker Says:

    In Francisco’s defense maybe Dusty should have given his pitcher a talking to after they dusted him last week on purpose. But I get that an eye for an eye would leave everyone blind.

  97. 97
    Steve Says:

    That was a big ol’ out for Tommy right there. C’mon, let’s get out of this.

  98. 98
    Steve Says:

    Durbin. That is all.

  99. 99
    Curt Says:

    What a dismal series. The continued inability of the Braves to win without Chipper is a serious problem. That they can’t even score any runs without him. Make the move now. Francisco ain’t getting it done.

  100. 100
    Steve Says:

    Brutal. And pitching Martinez there in the bottom of the 9th was horrible. Why not keep EOF in? Or go to Medlen? And, of course, just freaking use Kimbrel like you should in that situation.

  101. 101
    Shaun Says:

    What’s that, Steve? You mean preventing the winning run is more important than making sure Kimbrel is available for a save?

  102. 102
    will Says:

    cmon curt, sometimes you just gotta tip ur hat

  103. 103
    Bubdylan Says:

    Out-managed in the 9th by Dusty Baker. Made me physically ill.

  104. 104
    Nate Says:

    #100, don’t overlook the damage Fredi can do to our record if he starts making the same mistakes we saw all last year. He didn’t single-handedly cost us the game, but he didn’t put the team in the best situation to get the win- bad personnel moves. That’s really all NBA, MLB, or UEFA coaches/managers have to do. The good ones do it very effectively, the mediocre ones like Fredi are bound to mess up every once in a while. Not having Chipper, Mac, or Jason in the lineup on the same night is DUMB. We squandered a great start from Hanson last night.

  105. 105
    Shaun Says:

    Bubdylan @103, well, if the Reds were in Atlanta in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, I’m sure Baker also would have lost the game before he used Chapman in a non-save situation. It’s the way of the managerial world today: Worry about saves before wins.

    Nate @104, I agree. We should kick and scream whenever a manager does dumb things. I don’t think he was the only reason or even the major reason the Braves lost. But he didn’t do his part in at least a few instances, which is all we can ask.

  106. 106
    Shaun Says:

    We’ve seen whispers of how the Braves have changes since last season and that they aren’t using Kimbrel, Venters and O’Flaherty as much.

    Well, what good is resting them if they aren’t going to be used when one run means losing the game?

  107. 107
    eric Says:

    @104 – It’s not like Jason has been any good the last month offensively. I doubt having him out of the lineup cost the Braves any runs. Maybe a night or two off and some time in the cage will get him back on track.

  108. 108
    Shaun Says:

    Eric, I do think resting Heyward against Arroyo was odd, although I don’t have a huge problem with it. I would have preferred resting him against a lefty, though.

  109. 109
    Shaun Says:

    …a tough lefty, I should add, not just any lefty.

  110. 110
    Curt Says:

    Tonight’s lineup is not filling me with confidence that we aren’t getting swept

  111. 111
    Leah Says:

    110 I’m withya.

  112. 112
    Leah Says:

    Martin Prado is ‘da bomb!

  113. 113
    Bubdylan Says:

    Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy!!!!!

    Woooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!

    Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! YES!!!

    YEEEEEE HAAAWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  114. 114
    Curt Says:

    Always leave Delgado in 3 batters too long?

  115. 115
    Leah Says:

    Icky poo.

  116. 116
    Kate Says:

    Is Cincy the new house of horrors for the Braves? I feel like they’ve won two games there in the last five years.

  117. 117
    Curt Says:

    Stupid ballpark. 10 homers. Maybe 4 or 5 of them legit

  118. 118
    Shaun Says:

    Costas and Verducci discussing closer usage. Good stuff.

    Verducci just said, “it’s not a criticism” that the way teams use closers, that it’s just the way the industry is. Why the heck isn’t a criticism? Someone needs to criticize reliever usage. That’s the only way it’s going to change.

    The game is less entertaining when you are seeing a teams 4th or 5th best reliever with the game on the line in, say, the seventh inning when the other team’s best hitters are up.

  119. 119
    Steve Says:

    What a horror show of a series. Would have really liked to have been more at full strength. I hate the asterisk of three of our best bats on the bench at times.

    That said, we still did give up 10 home runs.

    Taking 2 of 3 from the Nats would certainly help.

  120. 120
    Leah Says:

    I’m no mathematician but I believe none of your predictions for this week will prove accurate.

  121. 121
    Bubdylan Says:

    The Braves Turn it All Around

    The Braves Dominate with Bats and Starters

    The Braves Continue to Roll

    Amazing Comebacks Mark the Braves’ Week

    The Braves Sweep the Cards and Take First Place

    Braves Remain in First and Take Series from Rays

    ******************

    I have to say, if they rebound against the Nats, I’ve got no complaints.

  122. 122
    Bubdylan Says:

    *will still complain daily

  123. 123
    Curt Says:

    08:13 AM ET 05.25 | Where or when will Roy Owalt pitch this season — if anywhere? Two friends of [Oswalt] say they still believe his preference is to play in Texas, Atlanta or St. Louis. But since there’s no indication the Braves or Cardinals are interested, his challenge is likely to be trying to convince the Rangers to pay him the significant dollars he’s hoping for. … Oswalt has been linked to the Phillies and Red Sox. But both of those teams are right up against the luxury-tax threshold. So they’re highly unlikely to dangle the kind of dollars he’s looking for. Meanwhile, one executive who speaks frequently with the Orioles’ brass says: “Don’t discount [reports on] Baltimore going after Oswalt.

  124. 124
    Nate Says:

    Curt, I think Rick Ankiel just moved ahead of Wes Helms.

  125. 125
    Curt Says:

    The big innings. And the big innings with 2 outs. Killing us

  126. 126
    Bubdylan Says:

    The baseball. And the baseball with losing. Killing us. :(

  127. 127
    Steve Says:

    Bub, @121: really paints the stark contrast, doesn’t it? Wow.

    I still believe we can win tonight.

  128. 128
    Steve Says:

    For the record, I wrote 127 a good 20 minutes before the 2 run 5th.

  129. 129
    Steve Says:

    Hudson losing command here in the 7th.

  130. 130
    Adam Says:

    I hate watching us suck.

  131. 131
    Curt Says:

    This team just can’t get out of their own way right now

  132. 132
    Leah Says:

    I hate baseball.

  133. 133
    Steve Says:

    Fredi left him in too long. Crazy, crazy, crazy leaving him in to face Zimmerman.

  134. 134
    Bubdylan Says:

    #133, agreed. Just shaking my head. Fredi leaves me feeling helpless in tight games.

  135. 135
    Curt Says:

    2 nights in a row he hung the starter out way too long.

  136. 136
    Nate Says:

    Chipper to the DL. It’s time for Uggla, Freeman, Mac, and Heyward to step up. Prado can’t do it alone.

  137. 137
    Leah Says:

    Melky Cabrera had 27 multi-hit games for the Braves during the 2010 season. He’s got 23 multi-hit games this year for SF.

    So it goes…

  138. 138
    Steve Says:

    After bemoaning the Minor/Strasburg matchup and our woeful lineup on Twitter, someone just DM’d me, “well, at least it’s not Monday.” Silver lining, people!

  139. 139
    Pure Says:

    Freddie a late scratch, and Prado missing a fly ball. Not a good start.

  140. 140
    Steve Says:

    And let’s not forget Pastor in the 2 hole which is just asinine.

  141. 141
    Nate Says:

    What’s our starters ERA with 2 outs?

  142. 142
    Pure Says:

    Painful.

  143. 143
    Leah Says:

    They should have Mac and Diaz lick the balls before they give them to the ump.

  144. 144
    Steve Says:

    Pretty great at bats there by Hinske, Heyward, Francisco and Boscan.

    If Minor gives up any more runs, he needs to be pulled immediately. Not sure that Fredi will do it. I would have PH for him in the bottom of the 2nd. Had a big run on 3rd there.

  145. 145
    Steve Says:

    @143 – Leah, please. This site is rated E for everyone.

  146. 146
    Pure Says:

    Darn. Cant get a break. Unlucky DP.

  147. 147
    Walker Says:

    Just back from a short trip. I see Fredi Gonzalez is still stupid. Anybody want to defend him now? Just plain ridiculous from batting orders to resting players to bullpen usage. He’s a complete mess.

    Anyway , I won’t let me hate for him overshadow the love I have for this franchise. Go Braves!

  148. 148
    Walker Says:

    Go ahead Uggla. Let get some more.

    We must outplay our two opponents: The Washington Nationals and Fredi Gonzalez.

  149. 149
    Leah Says:

    @145 so sorry. Sometimes in moments of wrath I get a little carried away. (Still laughing…)

  150. 150
    Nate Says:

    We’re just in full September form right now. The Bad News Braves are back.

  151. 151
    Bubdylan Says:

    NL East Power Rankings

    1. Washington + Fredi Gonzalez
    2. Braves
    3. Mets + Fredi Gonzalez
    4. Phillies + Fredi Gonzalez
    5. Marlins + Fredi Gonzalez

  152. 152
    Leah Says:

    It feels like we’re never going to win again.

  153. 153
    Bubdylan Says:

    They need to give Teheran a shot. If for no other reason, the team needs to feel something is being done.

    And Wren needs to fire Fredi Gonzalez. I can’t for the life of me understand how the organization doesn’t see this. It is absolutely mind-numbing.

  154. 154
    Bubdylan Says:

    That’s the last straw.

  155. 155
    Curt Says:

    Should we start calling for McDowell to be fired? This is really a joke. I can’t wait for it to be that Chipper has been out and that’s why we can’t win. We can’t win because outlet pitching staff is a joke right now and our manager is a saboteur. So glad I will be out of the loop on these guys for a week. Compete for gods sake

  156. 156
    Walker Says:

    @ 155

    The Braves pitching has been pretty successful during McDowell’s tenure. Firing him now would be a little too quick. We should be looking at the manager.

    But this is the great thing about a MLB season that no other sport has. A MLB season has so many ups and downs. A week ago we couldn’t have imagined a 6 game losing streak.

  157. 157
    Curt Says:

    Walker – it was actually kind of a joke. I know it didn’t come off that way. But this team, and any team really, has zero chance when their pitching is this bad. And with the injuries on offense…

    It’s a train wreck right now

  158. 158
    Leah Says:

    Gotta fix it and fast.

  159. 159
    Steve Says:

    Fwiw, I think the Braves win tomorrow night. I bet both Mac and Freddie are back in the lineup and that Beachy pitches his arse off for 7 or 8 innings.

    Not to mention that me and my 11 year old will be there and I can’t stand the thought of seeing one these recent travesties in person.

  160. 160
    Steve Says:

    Speaking of which, no show tomorrow night. Moved to Monday night this week.

  161. 161
    will Says:

    Show #185: When does football start?

  162. 162
    Anne Says:

    Show #185 Olympic Preview
    Show #185 Tour de France – What to Expect
    Show #185 Steve’s Kid’s T-Ball Final

  163. 163
    Bubdylan Says:

    Show #185: Braves Avoid September Collapse

  164. 164
    Shaun Says:

    What this team needs is a trade. I just don’t know if there is one to be made at this point in the season, especially with a second wild card up for grabs.

  165. 165
    Shaun Says:

    How about Chase Headley of the Padres (.247/.364/.404 this season and a .354 OBP for his career)? The last two seasons, he’s had an OPS+ of 120.

    He doesn’t have a ton of power but he has some. It’s just not evident because he’s played in San Diego his whole career.

    The Padres may want to trade him because he’s arb eligible but he’s locked up through 2014. The Braves could get their thirdbaseman, if they want to leave Prado in left.

  166. 166
    Shaun Says:

    One more Headley fact: .300/.364/.444 on the road in his career.

  167. 167
    Walker Says:

    Braves win tonight 8-3.

  168. 168
    Bubdylan Says:

    I’ve got ‘em losing 4-1.

  169. 169
    Bubdylan Says:

    “There’s nobody dragging themselves into this clubhouse,” said Gio Gonzalez, who starts on Sunday Night Baseball against the Braves’ Brandon Beachy, in a matchup of early Cy Young candidates. “Everybody’s excited. Everybody’s fired up. You don’t see guys yawning as they’re going out to take batting practice. They’re into it.”

    On the other hand, there is a completely different environment in the Braves’ clubhouse these days: They are in survival mode.

    -Buster Olney

  170. 170
    Curt Says:

    “No I can’t,” Jones said when asked to point to the reason the team has struggled in his absence. “It’s frustrating to watch. Somebody has to step up. There are a 162 games to look forward to next year. Somebody has to step out. Somebody has to get the big out, get the big hit, make the big play – all those things that you have to do on a daily basis to win ball games.”

    In other news – the earth is not flat

  171. 171
    Nate Says:

    What’s our record against the NL East under Fredi Gonzalez? Shouldn’t that be something we start to look at and get concerned about. You know, with that whole unbalanced schedule thing…

  172. 172
    Nate Says:

    The organization can’t afford to lose the fans this early. There are a lot of home games left.

  173. 173
    Nate Says:

    Fredi really hung Livan out there for his former team. I’m sure Livan appreciates that.

  174. 174
    Walker Says:

    What a difference a week makes. I dreaded a losing streak longer than 5 games.

  175. 175
    Walker Says:

    We sure have a great manager.

  176. 176
    Curt Says:

    Who do you trust on this team right now? Including the coaching staff? Fredi seems to lack the ability to turn the thing out of a tailspin. Embarrassing effort. I don’t care how short-handed you are. Think the Nats care? Think this doesn’t carry over this season? That the first time they faced us they best us like a mule?

    By my count you are now 2-4 against the Mets, 1-2 against the Phils, 1-1 against the Marlins, and 0-3 against DC. With 346 games yet to play against them all. Good luck.

  177. 177
    Walker Says:

    Livan has been good ( LUCKY) this year but HE IS STILL OUR MOP UP/LONG RELIEVER

    NOTE TO FREDI: IT’S A TIE GAME IN THE FREAKING 6TH INNING!!

    If it was the 7th, he would have put in O’Flaherty. But oh no it’s the 6th. We can’t use out best relievers. It’s against the law.

    Rule #1 of sports: Win with your best and lose with your best.

    Fredi, if you don’t secure a playoff spot, you are OUT OF HERE.

    I’m not angry

  178. 178
    Nate Says:

    We just got dominated.

    Fredi has no clue. The only way we were winning is because our offense was on fire. Our pitching has been suspect all year, so when our offense slumps like they did this week we are going to lose a lot of gams. And again, we have a very bad manager.

  179. 179
    Nate Says:

    *games not gams. I hate baseball.

  180. 180
    Steve Says:

    It was miserable at the ballpark tonight. And with each batter that Fredi left Livan in for, I became more and more speechless. So strange tonight. Awful.

  181. 181
    doug Says:

    Feels like september

  182. 182
    Bubdylan Says:

    I never blamed Fredi for the collapse. I now regret that.

  183. 183
    Nate Says:

    #180, he did that in Florida all the time. He just leaves guys in way too long. We’ve gotten lucky a lot this year that it hasn’t backfired more. I really think he’s gone after this year. No way he gets fired during the season unless we absolutely tank it, but even if we make the playoffs he’s gone, imo, unless we somehow win it all. He learned nothing from last season’s collapse and missing the playoffs. He’s making the same mistakes again, costing us games that we could at least stay in with better bullpen use and a better feel for when a starter is “done”. Wren and the rest of the organization have to see this, it’s so blatantly obvious.

    It’s been just an awful month with the pitching issues, the offense going in the tank last week, Freeman’s eye issues, Chipper’s leg, McCann’s tummy. Bad stuff. Hopefully the team can just put this behind them and start tearing it up at the plate again.

  184. 184
    Walker Says:

    I never blamed Fredi for the collapse but i blame him for us not making the playoffs. Over 162 games last year he cost us 3-4 extra wins easily.

  185. 185
    Bubdylan Says:

    The trouble with the “Wren and company have to see this” is that it’s the same company who hired Chad Durbin while Gearrin wastes away for a third year in Gwinnett with a 0.94 ERA and 0.837 WHIP, striking out 34 and walking 8 in 28 innings. I mean, who could have predicted that after the Spring he had?

  186. 186
    Bubdylan Says:

    That’s why they call him “1-2-3 Tommy”

  187. 187
    Adam Says:

    Hanson the magician.

  188. 188
    Bubdylan Says:

    Philly also loaded the bases and scored zero. We were that close to punching our ticket for last place.

  189. 189
    Bubdylan Says:

    This is so much fun.

  190. 190
    Walker Says:

    Boy, when we fall, we fall hard. I can’t watch.

  191. 191
    Leah Says:

    Little leaguers…

  192. 192
    Bubdylan Says:

    Yeah, whatcha want is Livan in a close game, save Medlen for the blowouts.

  193. 193
    Leah Says:

    On…that little “Daddy came home and is at Turner Field” was freaking awesome.

  194. 194
    Bubdylan Says:

    I mean, the only way it could be worse is if Durbin came in and logged a couple of scoreless innings, solidifying him in Fredi’s dupedy eyes as a real choice in a real game.

  195. 195
    Anne Says:

    …and this is why I didn’t get season tickets this year. What the.

  196. 196
    Nate Says:

    A. Fire the Manager
    B. Fire a Coach
    C. Make a trade
    D. Send guys down, call guys up
    E. Stand pat, hope the team gets healthy and it all turns around

    The Braves typically go with plan E in this situation, which sucks for those of us watching.

  197. 197
    Nate Says:

    Dear Braves Players, at some point someone else has to step up and stop waiting for Chipper to fix it. Those days are gone. We drafted him in 1990. It’s 2012.

  198. 198
    Bubdylan Says:

    We’re in dead last.

  199. 199
    Curt Says:

    Having not seen the score, I’ll assume we lost today

  200. 200
    Curt Says:

    That old trick. Horrible starting pitching + no offense.

  201. 201
    Curt Says:

    Luckily, I get to miss this week’s show. Not sure I had it in me.

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