Show #184: Braves Remain in First and Take Series from Rays
A great series win in Tampa, the starting pitching, the record without Chipper and the trouble with EOF and Venters.
A great series win in Tampa, the starting pitching, the record without Chipper and the trouble with EOF and Venters.
May 21st, 2012 at 12:09 am
Jive Talkin’ is a great tune. I can’t listen to more than 2 Bee Gees tunes in a row, but I love when just one pops up on my MP3 shuffle.
Yes, PLEASE pay Bourn. Let McCann go to the AL and rake in the dough. Wherever he goes, I’ll pick them for my AL team. But Bourn is absolutely the thing we’ve been missing most. Even if his personality and Braves-passion is in Garret Anderson territory. Give him the 5 years. Our two big free agents: Uggla and Bourn. Slugger and leadoff. Three championships.
“Running the Numbers” segment took the show up a notch. I love it.
It’s bad that we have a hard time winning without Chipper, but how cool is it that he’s that much of a boost when he’s in there? I never ever saw that coming. I do think those numbers will even out a bit.
Agree with y’all that Venters is the bigger concern because of his role. Somebody named Bubdylan said the pen would be a concern (course, he said a lot of things…)
May 21st, 2012 at 3:42 am
We aren’t going to sign Bourn and quite frankly we shouldn’t. No way we are are paying more than 11 million for a centerfielder who is having a career year. Speed is a main part of his game and that declines with age. We are a mid market club and we compete consistently because we don’t sign guys to huge unreasonable contracts. We draft, only sign key core guys, and use our farm system to trad for needs.
May 21st, 2012 at 3:58 am
Regarding Heyward , I noticed you all just talked about his batting average as a way of critiquing his play. It’s a huge mistake to do that. Heyward’s overall skills of getting on base, and defensive range unfortunately fly over people’s head’s. He’s actually according to WAR has been more valuable to the Braves this year than Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann.
And yes I would take Jason Heyward any day of the week because his peripheral skills are off the charts and his hitting skills will only get better. And saying he’s been bad more than he’s been good is simply not telling the truth about the guy. Just like Fredi Gonzalez was blind to bench him last year, people will continue to undervalue the guy.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:12 am
@3 – Walker it’s not just BA with Heyward. Here’s his slash line this past week:
.227 .292 .273 . And for the past 2 weeks: .213 .288 .426. And that’s what we said, the past two weeks, particularly, not good. Not hitting, not getting on base, not hitting for power. And, in the past 2 weeks, 15 SO in 47 ABs.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:12 am
Bub – thanks about Running the Numbers.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:30 am
Great show as always, guys. A few thoughts in response…
Y’all mentioned Delgado’s “one bad inning” in his Rays start — but really, that wasn’t his only bad inning, even though it was the only one in which he gave up runs. Even in his first inning, which was 1-2-3, he went 3-2 to the first two hitters and started getting his pitch count up. The second inning, he walked two guys, then got a bit lucky to get out of it with the Heyward-McCann double play. As a pitcher, it’s good to get out of jams, but I also think throwing a lot of “high stress pitches” can cause a pitcher to wear down sooner and have impact later in the game.
Minor’s struggles…Minor to bullpen, bring up Teheran? Medlen as starter — no, cause he can’t get stretched out — unless you send Medlen down to the minors to get stretched out, move Minor to the bullpen, and bring up Teheran for a few spot starts while Medlen’s getting stretched out. Which seems all too confusing and they’d be messing with too many guys. Don’t know what to do with Minor, other than to hope that he’ll get it together for a good stretch.
I would agree that Bourn is worth around 12 million. One of you said that he’ll probably get 5 years at $60 million — and I hope that would be from the Braves. They don’t have anyone else lined up that could play CF and leadoff as well as Bourn does — it’s not coming from the minor leagues, and while Shane Victorino is intriguing, he’s not the dynamic player Bourn is. Sign Bourn to an extension, let McCann DH in the AL (I agree with you Bub), and bring up Bethancourt. Oh, also sign David Ross to another contract after this year.
Heyward — As one of the guys who, earlier in the season, had “Heyward blinders” on, I’ve recently backed off him a bit. I agree that he’s not hitting well enough to be in the top half of the lineup, and for now, hitting 6/7 is where he needs to be. Steve, you wondered what he’s hit the last two weeks and four weeks. Last two weeks: .208/.300/.396. Last four weeks: .209/.320/372
However, I will say that it’s encouraging to see him coming up with clutch hits and making pitchers work against him.
I’m gonna go 4-3 this week. We lose both Minor starts and the Delgado start. The thought of those two guys pitching in Cincinnati’s bandbox makes me want to watch something on Netflix and follow along on gameday…And are y’all sure that we’ll miss Strasburg? He pitched yesterday, so won’t that line him up for Friday or Saturday?
May 21st, 2012 at 8:51 am
@6 – Yeah, I think I blew it on the Strasburg thing. I’ll blame it on ESPN’s pitching probables.
May 21st, 2012 at 10:22 am
hey guys, Bourn turns 30 this offseason (december), not 32. id give him 5 years $60mil max. its $12 mil per year.
You are right, there are no real comparisons, because Bourn has no equal on defense, and as long as he gets on base at a reasonable rate, he will be a pretty good offensive player.
walker “Speed is a main part of his game and that declines with age.”
there are plenty of players that this is not true about. alot of speed first players keep thier speed. its all about how healthy his legs stay. it is a risk, because if his legs go, there goes his defensive value and alot of his offensive value too.
May 21st, 2012 at 11:14 am
@Steve
Showing stats from a two week interval doesn’t mean a whole lot in a long season. Take into account slumps(Which all players go through), what his overall stats are now and what they will end up being. No doubt he needs to improve and definitely will improve. But Im just sayin, we get more excited about Pastornicky going 6-19 but in reality Heyward contributed way more to this team the past couple of weeks.
May 21st, 2012 at 11:40 am
I think that we’ll still need a good story with either Minor, Teheran or even Redmond or remarkable rebound Jurrjens; or a late amazing successful emergence of starting Livan or Medlin in order for us to win the division. The Nationals aren’t going away, as soon as Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper become a solid back to back hitting pair, expect them to be on the track of potential Braun, Fielder pair…especially when they get Michael Morse back. And you can expect the Phillies to come around whether their offense gets in real gear or not. I don’t know what to expect from the Marlins, but they could be a force too. However, as good as the division is, the quality of every team in the division may help Atlanta because each team will likely beat up on each other. As yet, we have not even played every team in our division, so it’s going to be a very competitive and fun summer to watch. We are in a great position, but it’s WAY too soon to put Atlanta as a lock to win the division…it’s going to be a horse race. At least at this point things are going well and we are healthy…so Great so far!
May 21st, 2012 at 11:42 am
Don’t expect us to win 100 games…that’s really unlikely and impractical (IMO).
May 21st, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Dont be surprised if Mariners offer Bourn the money.
May 21st, 2012 at 12:23 pm
I may be All WET, but I am looking for Minor to turn things all around against Cincy today…mainly because their best hitters (Votto & Bruce) are left handers. If he is somehow able to weather that storm, maybe he can get things going in the right direction.
May 21st, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Heyward is fascinating because he’s so controversial, almost to the point of polarizing, and when one brings him up, you know it’s going to be a good discussion.
There is no doubt he’s shown flashes of poor play and there may be a few people who have overrated him. But I think there are also many who have underrated him.
I don’t think he’s shown more bad than good in his career. As I commented last week, by some measures Heyward has been about as valuable or perhaps more valuable than Giancarlo Stanton over his career.
Heyward has 9.5 career Wins Above Replacement per Baseball Reference.
Stanton has 7.6 WAR per B-R.
Heyward has 8.5 career WAR per FanGraphs.
Stanton has 8.1 per FanGraphs.
I think you guys hit on why: Heyward is perhaps more streaky than some, maybe because of his skill set and perhaps because of his age. I don’t know that he’ll ever be a huge batting-average hitter nor do I think he’s a huge power hitter. So he’s going to put the ball in the field of play a lot, so when he’s not drawing walks and the hits aren’t falling/finding holes, it’s going to really show.
Also, I think he was so hyped that when he does have his downs, everyone takes notice, whereas if someone like Pastornicky has a down period, everyone can just chalk it up to him being a less-hyped rookie.
Maybe to some it’s tiresome but to me it’s always fun to discuss Heyward. I think it’s because he’s so talented, was so hyped coming in and his skills are somewhat unique for a player with his talent.
May 21st, 2012 at 12:41 pm
DAP @8, I think you are right about Bourn. There are plenty of speedy players who remain pretty speedy into their mid-30′s. There are a few that remain speedy as they approach 40.
I think the biggest *problem* with signing Bourn long term is that, while he’s a good hitter, he’s not a great hitter. I think he’ll provide plenty of defensive value for a while. I think he’ll of course be a fine baserunner. But I don’t know that he’ll add much on offense as he ages, especially if a team inserts him into the leadoff spot so that he gets more plate appearances than any player on the team.
May 21st, 2012 at 1:55 pm
I agree Bourn’s speed is as likely to hold up as not. For five-year contracts, I think player age concerns are overrated. It’s a coin toss. There’s no guarantee young players will keep their production (McLouth), and even our most dreaded recent old-guy contracts (Chipper and Lowe) have not been the albatrosses we feared.
By that I mean we’re in the much feared last years of both Chipper’s and Lowe’s contract. One is hurting us and one isn’t. AND neither of them is keeping us from contending. AND in fact both players are having fine years, just unfortunately not for the Braves in Lowe’s case.
I’m fine with a “Buy Now Pay Later” mentality on a couple of select free agents. Bourn and Uggla seem like the perfect guys to take that risk with. It’s all a gamble, but a couple of 5 year, 10-13 million gambles for players less than 35 seems like as good a management of limited funds a contending team can hope for. If the last couple years of Uggla and Bourn are down years, so be it. Like I said, we’re living with Lowe’s contract just fine.
Having this core locked up for the next few years seems like a fine way to contend:
Bourn
Uggla
Freeman
Heyward
Prado
Delgado
Beachy
Teheran
Minor
Kimbrel
Venters
That’s what I’d build my team around. Leaves plenty of money to fill in the gaps. Subtracting Bourn from that would be a huge blow, one of the biggest possible.
I’m wasting my breath, though. The Braves won’t go after Bourn.
May 21st, 2012 at 2:16 pm
I’m a regular listener and fan of the podcast for over a year now. I enjoy the podcast quite a bit, even though I don’t always agree with the opinions of the hosts. This week I really felt like you all missed the mark with the Bourn contract talk and–in particular–with the comparison to Andrew McCutchen’s 5 year 51.5 million dollar contract.
I want to preface my complaint with an admission: I don’t know how much Bourn is likely to make on the free agent market this winter. I think it would be possible to get a rough idea of how much Bourn might cost by considering contracts given to similarly talented outfielders of similar age and correcting those numbers for current market, but I have not taken the time to do that work (or seen any articles on Braves blogs, where those bloggers have put in the time and work).
However, McCutchen and his contract is not a good place to start to try and get an idea of what Bourn is worth. Comparing his contract to the one Bourn will get this winter is like comparing apples to oranges. McCutchen was not even close to free agency when he signed his contract. The contract pays him for his last per-arbitration year, what would be all of his arbitration years, and a few years after that. Here’s how McCutchen’s contract breaks down year-by-year (I’m getting these numbers from cot’s baseball contracts): 2012-0.5M, 13-4.5M, 14-7.5M, 15-10M, 16-13M, 17-14M, 18-14.5M (2018 is a club option year). McCutchen is a younger center fielder who is more talented than Bourn, but is limited in what he can make by the fact that he is not yet a free agent. Since Bourn will be a free agent after this year, his contract will certainly not start with him getting paid 0.5M a year. To be comparable to Bourn’s situation you would need to look for examples of outfielders who 1) were entering free agency and not arbitration eligible players; 2) had above average talent (very good, but not superstar level players); 3) were of a similar age to Bourn (i.e. late twenties to early thirties). If you could find a couple of players who fit that mold, they might give you a good idea of what kind of contract to expect for Bourn.
May 21st, 2012 at 2:18 pm
I think Bourn’s speed will hold up okay and of course his defensive instincts should hold up just fine. So he’ll provide plenty of value on that side of the ball plus on the basepaths for the next 4-6 years, even if he’s not quite as fast as he is now. The bat is where I think it will show because he doesn’t have some outstanding hit tool, he doesn’t walk a whole lot and doesn’t hit for any power. But I don’t think he’ll be a zero with the bat and his defense and baserunning should allow him to remain valuable. I just don’t know if he’ll be worth to the Braves what some team like Washington or some others will be willing to offer.
By the way, great show guys. One of the more entertaining I’ve heard since I’ve been listening.
May 21st, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Fingers crossed for Mike Minor. I’m afraid riding it out with him is the best choice unless we get a new starter from somewhere. All the internal options seem potentially more damaging than sweating out every 5th game. C’mon, Mike, just give us a breather: a couple of good games. You’ve got the stuff.
May 21st, 2012 at 3:05 pm
@17 – Harrison thanks for listening and taking the time to join the comments board. Don’t be a stranger.
And you’re absolutely right (someone else pointed it out, too). We missed the arb years component of the McCutcheon deal. That said, I still believe Bourn will get $12 – $13MM a year for five years.
May 21st, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Here’s a helpful round-up of our 2013 Contract Issues from mlb.com.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/2013-contract-issues-atlanta-braves.html
From my chair, the relevant names are:
Free Agents:
Bourn
Ross
Options:
McCann
Huddy
Arbitration, 1st year:
Heyward
Venters
Hanson
Medlen
Arby, 3rd year:
Prado
So, we stand to gain around 37 million from Chipper, Lowe, Bourn, Jurrjens, and Diaz departing.
Then we’ll need _________ dollars to pay raises for the 5 arby guys. Can someone estimate that number?
Leaving ________ dollars to fill needs at CF and 3B, plus bench and whatever little stuff (starting pitcher? lol) we need.
This offseason will be verrry juicy. Wren’s biggest test yet.
May 21st, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Heyward has K issues (just like Freeman actually) and the amazing plate discipline he showed initially has dipped into only very good range. However if you look at the whole picture Freeman and Heyward have had very similar seasons. Freeman has wOBA .346, Heyward .344, Freeman wRC+ 120, Heyward wRC+ 118. So ask yourself why are you disappointed in Heyward but not Freeman (really shouldn’t be for either of course)? It can really only be expectations. Both have been incredibly streaky but isn’t that often a product of youth?
Also you’ll never fully appreciate Heyward if you are still a devotee of the archaic batting average or don’t value defense enough. Heyward is the best corner OF in the game. That’s extremely valuable no matter what he does at the plate. People celebrate the defense of an average defender like Freeman far more when Heyward is the one who consistently saves far more runs.
It seems expectations will always hamper our views of Heyward, but we can still appreciate the extremely valuable skills he brings if we use better analysis.
May 21st, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Ugh. Minor is so annoying right now. I still believe he’s gonna be good, but I wish they’d get another pitcher and send him down. He doesn’t look like the same guy that was dominating in ST and MiLB.
May 21st, 2012 at 7:53 pm
It’s a Minor Monday.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:05 pm
1-2-3 inning, and he had a little skip in his step leaving the mound. Crossing my fingers for a miracle of confidence born.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Mike Leake. 7 outs in a row.
The Braves don’t always suck. But when they do, they suck plenty.
Truth be told, I’m just surprised to find us tied up with them after 2.5, should be a telling bottom of the 3rd.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Wow, Minor looked good for the first batter all night just now… oh, please, please, please…
May 21st, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Sigh, homer by the pitcher. Screw.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Thank you sir, can I have another?
May 21st, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Minor’s given up more HR’s in the NL, third most in all of baseball. Get him OUT of here.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:23 pm
Third homer in a row. I hate Mike Minor.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Minor’s gotta go back to the Minors
May 21st, 2012 at 8:25 pm
I’d rather have JJ’s broken bat singles.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Well, so much for the argument that Minor’s struggles are mainly from pitching out of the stretch.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Only person I hate more than Minor right this moment is Derek Lowe.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Minor is at NINETY SIX pitches through 4 innings. The Reds’ batters are looking like the Braves.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Minor’s struggles ARE mainly from pitching the stretch. “I have nothing left to prove in the minors” – that’s a stretch.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Good grief, I really can’t believe this. Leake has retired ten in a row. I mean, it’s one thing for Minor to be predictably awful, but seriously, on the same night we can’t hit Mike Leake?
It can’t REALLY be the Monday thing, can it?
May 21st, 2012 at 8:45 pm
12 in a row by Leake. If he gets to 15, I’m going to smash my thumb with a hammer. I’ll send pics.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:46 pm
lol, I rarely use all caps, but I CAN NOT BELIEVE THIS SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII…..
May 21st, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Should we just stop watching Monday games?
May 21st, 2012 at 8:48 pm
You guys remember Mike Leake — Reds’ starting pitcher in the Brooks Conrad walk-off grand slam game. That game, Leake went 6 IP, gave up 3 runs (1 earned), 6 k, gave up 5 hits. Left the game with a 9-3 lead.
So, really, a three-run deficit is nothing. Um, yeah.
May 21st, 2012 at 8:55 pm
Uggla saves my thumb.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:00 pm
I have a theory about the Monday curse. The players are too busy pondering the points made in the new ABT podcast from the night before, so they tend to overanalyze while they’re playing.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:05 pm
#44, funny. I just read Hinske’s lips talking to Chipper: “Pretty sure Curt and Hammy are the same guy.”
May 21st, 2012 at 9:06 pm
#45 = awesome squared
May 21st, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Francisco no catcho.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Never seen anything like Livan. Somebody said he sold his soul to the devil. Looking at his Satan-skin glove, I think he made the deal and then ate him.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:17 pm
and 18 of his minions
May 21st, 2012 at 9:18 pm
lol.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Medlen is filthy.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:28 pm
but before eating him, he threw sunflower seeds at him
May 21st, 2012 at 9:29 pm
You know, I’m kind of changing my opinion on Medlen’s role. I’m starting to think him starting would be a good idea. Especially when Moylan comes back.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Walker, watching Meds tonight, it’s hard not to feel that way. He was so awesome that first stretch in the majors.
Crap, Prado robbed.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Meanwhile in AAA – JJ: 4.1 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 6 ER,
May 21st, 2012 at 9:31 pm
What the hell happened to the Braves’ approach at the plate tonight?
May 21st, 2012 at 9:32 pm
#55, JJ’s toast. Sipping sad whiskey at the Kawakami Bar & Grill.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:34 pm
lol, did the broadcaster just say “Uggla takes a ball high for a strike”?
May 21st, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Damn, Do you know what kind of prospects we could have gotten for JJ last year?
May 21st, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Oooh, make up call from the ump on ball three to McCann I think. Tying run at the plate is Heyward’s upcoming grounder.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Medlen will be in the rotation after tonight. Mark it down.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:40 pm
LOL @ 60
Let’s see
May 21st, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Sean Marshall versus Heyward in the 9th. An unstartable force meets a ill, moveable object.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:43 pm
God, that was the most frustrating ballgame I’ve watched this year. I spit it out. Ptooey!
May 21st, 2012 at 9:43 pm
@61 – no way. Livan before Medlen.
@59 – love that
May 21st, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Worse? Minor’s start against them or Leake’s start against us? Guy is now 1-5. They seem like they really don’t bear down against weaker starting pitching.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Giving up 4 runs isn’t really a horrible start so why did it seem horrible?
May 21st, 2012 at 9:48 pm
At least we have the ace going tomorrow.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:49 pm
#66, Minor’s start was worse, but it’s close. I wanna say, “no, no, these are pro ballplayers, it only looks like they don’t play their A game when the opposing pitcher is weak,” but nah. If I’ve learned anything over the years watching games it’s that they actually do behave motivationally very much like the fans figure.
Time to see some of that famous resiliency tomorrow.
May 21st, 2012 at 9:57 pm
Walker, he’s awful and he totally shut us down. The fact that we had what, 2 hits off of him? Another end of the rotation guy dominating the Braves. It makes no sense.
May 21st, 2012 at 10:22 pm
@Curt
I agree our offense was horrible. I was referring to just Minor’s performance. Giving up 4 runs isnt a quslity start but it isn’t horrible either. I guess giving up 3 solo shots in an inning will do that.
The home plate umpire was horrible tonight though.
May 22nd, 2012 at 8:31 am
I don’t think Leake is terrible. He had good stuff last night. Former #8 overall pick. He’s only 24 and he posted a sub 4.00 ERA in 29 appearances last year.
He’s like Minor – a young guy off to a rocky start still trying to figure out how to get through a major league lineup. Tonight, he just happened to bring it against the Braves. I think I remember Leake doing that to the Braves last season as well.
I thought Minor was good for most of the night. I was happy to see him get through two more innings after the 4th, too.
May 22nd, 2012 at 10:13 am
If it is all about the numbers, Leake is not having a good year so far. Up until last night, that is.
May 22nd, 2012 at 10:18 am
Previously winless Mike Leake (1-5) came in with an 8.53 home ERA and proceeded to hold the Braves to two hits and one run in eight innings.
May 22nd, 2012 at 1:24 pm
As the Braves continue to play good ball, they continue to plummet in SI’s power rankings. 2-1 in TB gets you dropped to 8.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/05/21/power.rankings.week.6/index.html?xid=cnnbin
May 22nd, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Curt, did you check out the explanation for the SI power rankings up top? It’s completely based on SABR stuff, ignoring wins and concentrating on what they figure predicts future wins. With all the other knee-jerk power rankings out there, I kind of like having this one. If for no other reason than possibly proving SABR predictions aren’t that much more reliable than gut-feeling, momentum-swing predictions.
I would be interested in seeing which rankings took a snapshot of the league at, say, the 1/3 season mark, and better predicted the end of the year. Of course injuries and so forth would effect both results, but since it should effect them equally (subtracting WAR on the one side, making journalists go “well now that Berkman’s down, we gotta drop the Cards a few slots” on the other).
I find it supremely interesting that the Nats are current SABR favorites, because they are not quite so embraced by the rest of us yet. But even more interesting are SABR’s love for Philly, the slumping Cardinals, the last place Sox and Yanks, and SABR’s hate for the first place Braves, the contending Reds, and the Mets.
May 22nd, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Bubdylan, it’s based purely on Fangraph’s Wins Above Replacement. It doesn’t exactly portend future wins. It’s more of an indication of a team’s underlying performance. When we are looking at a sample of the just under two months of the season so far, and nothing else, we could be seeing plenty of flukey performances that affect a team’s WAR that aren’t likely to continue going forward.
Probably the best thing to do if you want to try to rank where teams will end up at season’s end (say, if you have something riding on those rankings) is to consider underlying performance so far in addition to preseason projections, and to weigh this season’s underlying performances more and more heavily as the season goes on.
May 22nd, 2012 at 3:55 pm
#77, to quote the site: “The system used to rank the teams is based not on the current standings or a gut feeling about team quality, but on how well they’ve performed at the underlying traits that predict future performance better than wins and losses.”
You may only be saying that it doesn’t succeed in doing this. But what I’m saying is that this is the claim of SI Power Rankings, and the part of it I’m most interested in monitoring. If SABR stats can’t predict the future, we may as well stick with Wins and RBI’s.
Point taken on supplementing the rankings with projections, but again, I’m most interested in contrasting one way of ranking with the other.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Also, while I, too, thought it was strictly WAR based, I saw the Whitesox were out of order, so I concluded that there was some other variable in play. But maybe they just flubbed that one.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Bubdylan @78, “…predict future performance better than wins and losses,” so I think what they mean is that it is more reliable than a team’s win-loss record, if we are trying to predict future wins and losses, but it doesn’t mean it’s perfect or the best way to predict.
I think it’s just a compelling way to get a fairly easy, objective ranking. It’s not running several complex formulas, it’s not just eyeballing and coming up with power rankings and, most importantly to me, it actually defines what SI means by “power rankings.”
So many sites just throw up power rankings without any sort of explanation. It’s just someone’s opinion based on eyeballing standings and rosters and we really don’t know what it’s an opinion of.
I suspect they just flubbed on the White Sox but I don’t know. Maybe there is another variable. But I doubt they would have some of those other teams in certain spots if there were other variables. Every other team is perfectly aligned with team WAR, so I think they just messed up.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:35 pm
They should just call it Pow-WAR Rankings, then. I just threw up a little.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:38 pm
According to DOB, Fredi pulled Francisco aside and gave him a talking-to about the bat flip and home run trot from last night’s game; and, he talked with Dusty Baker about it as well. Gotta say — classy move on Fredi’s part.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:48 pm
I hope Fredi told Dusty, “well, you guys shouldn’t have released him”…but both Dusty and Fredi probably would have doubled over in laughter.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Just asked Ben Duronio on Twitter about the White Sox being out of place in SI’s power rankings. It was just a mistake. I know you can all rest easier tonight.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Good move by Fredi, I must admit.
(spits)
May 22nd, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Nice start, Bourn.
Freeman leads the NL in swinging at the first pitch, and just did it again. To his credit, it was a strike.
May 22nd, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Pastornicky played that grounder stupidly. That’s getting old.
May 22nd, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Well, there’s two earned runs that almost shouldn’t be. How could Tyler not charge that ball with Stubbs running? Ugh. Completely understand why Hudson uses his own SS. Beachy was screwed this inning.
May 22nd, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Sigh, I’m here alone again, ain’t I?
May 22nd, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Three pitch K for Francisco. Boo.
Ross homer coming here. I call it.
May 22nd, 2012 at 7:41 pm
By homer, I mean strike three looking.
May 22nd, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Okay, guess I’ll mosey over to the mlb site. Yuck.
May 22nd, 2012 at 8:30 pm
I’m just complaining about how stupid i think these small ballparks are to anyone who will listen. I hate this type of baseball. Who needs steroids when you play in a little league park.
Now if the freaking Braves could actually hit some.
May 22nd, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Bub! Don’t do it! Come back! They will corrupt you an then eat you alive! I hate it over there. Yuck indeed.
May 22nd, 2012 at 9:48 pm
If we can just keep them from hitting 7 homers in 2 games………….
May 22nd, 2012 at 10:06 pm
In Francisco’s defense maybe Dusty should have given his pitcher a talking to after they dusted him last week on purpose. But I get that an eye for an eye would leave everyone blind.
May 23rd, 2012 at 8:51 pm
That was a big ol’ out for Tommy right there. C’mon, let’s get out of this.
May 23rd, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Durbin. That is all.
May 23rd, 2012 at 10:21 pm
What a dismal series. The continued inability of the Braves to win without Chipper is a serious problem. That they can’t even score any runs without him. Make the move now. Francisco ain’t getting it done.
May 23rd, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Brutal. And pitching Martinez there in the bottom of the 9th was horrible. Why not keep EOF in? Or go to Medlen? And, of course, just freaking use Kimbrel like you should in that situation.
May 23rd, 2012 at 10:53 pm
What’s that, Steve? You mean preventing the winning run is more important than making sure Kimbrel is available for a save?
May 23rd, 2012 at 11:27 pm
cmon curt, sometimes you just gotta tip ur hat
May 24th, 2012 at 12:00 am
Out-managed in the 9th by Dusty Baker. Made me physically ill.
May 24th, 2012 at 10:23 am
#100, don’t overlook the damage Fredi can do to our record if he starts making the same mistakes we saw all last year. He didn’t single-handedly cost us the game, but he didn’t put the team in the best situation to get the win- bad personnel moves. That’s really all NBA, MLB, or UEFA coaches/managers have to do. The good ones do it very effectively, the mediocre ones like Fredi are bound to mess up every once in a while. Not having Chipper, Mac, or Jason in the lineup on the same night is DUMB. We squandered a great start from Hanson last night.
May 24th, 2012 at 10:59 am
Bubdylan @103, well, if the Reds were in Atlanta in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, I’m sure Baker also would have lost the game before he used Chapman in a non-save situation. It’s the way of the managerial world today: Worry about saves before wins.
Nate @104, I agree. We should kick and scream whenever a manager does dumb things. I don’t think he was the only reason or even the major reason the Braves lost. But he didn’t do his part in at least a few instances, which is all we can ask.
May 24th, 2012 at 11:24 am
We’ve seen whispers of how the Braves have changes since last season and that they aren’t using Kimbrel, Venters and O’Flaherty as much.
Well, what good is resting them if they aren’t going to be used when one run means losing the game?
May 24th, 2012 at 12:00 pm
@104 – It’s not like Jason has been any good the last month offensively. I doubt having him out of the lineup cost the Braves any runs. Maybe a night or two off and some time in the cage will get him back on track.
May 24th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Eric, I do think resting Heyward against Arroyo was odd, although I don’t have a huge problem with it. I would have preferred resting him against a lefty, though.
May 24th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
…a tough lefty, I should add, not just any lefty.
May 24th, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Tonight’s lineup is not filling me with confidence that we aren’t getting swept
May 24th, 2012 at 7:54 pm
110 I’m withya.
May 24th, 2012 at 7:54 pm
Martin Prado is ‘da bomb!
May 24th, 2012 at 9:00 pm
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy!!!!!
Woooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!
Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! YES!!!
YEEEEEE HAAAWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 24th, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Always leave Delgado in 3 batters too long?
May 24th, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Icky poo.
May 24th, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Is Cincy the new house of horrors for the Braves? I feel like they’ve won two games there in the last five years.
May 24th, 2012 at 9:23 pm
Stupid ballpark. 10 homers. Maybe 4 or 5 of them legit
May 24th, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Costas and Verducci discussing closer usage. Good stuff.
Verducci just said, “it’s not a criticism” that the way teams use closers, that it’s just the way the industry is. Why the heck isn’t a criticism? Someone needs to criticize reliever usage. That’s the only way it’s going to change.
The game is less entertaining when you are seeing a teams 4th or 5th best reliever with the game on the line in, say, the seventh inning when the other team’s best hitters are up.
May 25th, 2012 at 9:49 am
What a horror show of a series. Would have really liked to have been more at full strength. I hate the asterisk of three of our best bats on the bench at times.
That said, we still did give up 10 home runs.
Taking 2 of 3 from the Nats would certainly help.
May 25th, 2012 at 10:08 am
I’m no mathematician but I believe none of your predictions for this week will prove accurate.
May 25th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
The Braves Turn it All Around
The Braves Dominate with Bats and Starters
The Braves Continue to Roll
Amazing Comebacks Mark the Braves’ Week
The Braves Sweep the Cards and Take First Place
Braves Remain in First and Take Series from Rays
******************
I have to say, if they rebound against the Nats, I’ve got no complaints.
May 25th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
*will still complain daily
May 25th, 2012 at 3:10 pm
08:13 AM ET 05.25 | Where or when will Roy Owalt pitch this season — if anywhere? Two friends of [Oswalt] say they still believe his preference is to play in Texas, Atlanta or St. Louis. But since there’s no indication the Braves or Cardinals are interested, his challenge is likely to be trying to convince the Rangers to pay him the significant dollars he’s hoping for. … Oswalt has been linked to the Phillies and Red Sox. But both of those teams are right up against the luxury-tax threshold. So they’re highly unlikely to dangle the kind of dollars he’s looking for. Meanwhile, one executive who speaks frequently with the Orioles’ brass says: “Don’t discount [reports on] Baltimore going after Oswalt.
May 25th, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Curt, I think Rick Ankiel just moved ahead of Wes Helms.
May 25th, 2012 at 8:13 pm
The big innings. And the big innings with 2 outs. Killing us
May 25th, 2012 at 8:15 pm
The baseball. And the baseball with losing. Killing us.
May 25th, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Bub, @121: really paints the stark contrast, doesn’t it? Wow.
I still believe we can win tonight.
May 25th, 2012 at 9:33 pm
For the record, I wrote 127 a good 20 minutes before the 2 run 5th.
May 25th, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Hudson losing command here in the 7th.
May 25th, 2012 at 9:49 pm
I hate watching us suck.
May 25th, 2012 at 9:50 pm
This team just can’t get out of their own way right now
May 25th, 2012 at 10:03 pm
I hate baseball.
May 25th, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Fredi left him in too long. Crazy, crazy, crazy leaving him in to face Zimmerman.
May 25th, 2012 at 10:23 pm
#133, agreed. Just shaking my head. Fredi leaves me feeling helpless in tight games.
May 25th, 2012 at 11:37 pm
2 nights in a row he hung the starter out way too long.
May 25th, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Chipper to the DL. It’s time for Uggla, Freeman, Mac, and Heyward to step up. Prado can’t do it alone.
May 26th, 2012 at 10:02 am
Melky Cabrera had 27 multi-hit games for the Braves during the 2010 season. He’s got 23 multi-hit games this year for SF.
So it goes…
May 26th, 2012 at 3:44 pm
After bemoaning the Minor/Strasburg matchup and our woeful lineup on Twitter, someone just DM’d me, “well, at least it’s not Monday.” Silver lining, people!
May 26th, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Freddie a late scratch, and Prado missing a fly ball. Not a good start.
May 26th, 2012 at 4:27 pm
And let’s not forget Pastor in the 2 hole which is just asinine.
May 26th, 2012 at 4:35 pm
What’s our starters ERA with 2 outs?
May 26th, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Painful.
May 26th, 2012 at 4:57 pm
They should have Mac and Diaz lick the balls before they give them to the ump.
May 26th, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Pretty great at bats there by Hinske, Heyward, Francisco and Boscan.
If Minor gives up any more runs, he needs to be pulled immediately. Not sure that Fredi will do it. I would have PH for him in the bottom of the 2nd. Had a big run on 3rd there.
May 26th, 2012 at 4:58 pm
@143 – Leah, please. This site is rated E for everyone.
May 26th, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Darn. Cant get a break. Unlucky DP.
May 26th, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Just back from a short trip. I see Fredi Gonzalez is still stupid. Anybody want to defend him now? Just plain ridiculous from batting orders to resting players to bullpen usage. He’s a complete mess.
Anyway , I won’t let me hate for him overshadow the love I have for this franchise. Go Braves!
May 26th, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Go ahead Uggla. Let get some more.
We must outplay our two opponents: The Washington Nationals and Fredi Gonzalez.
May 26th, 2012 at 6:00 pm
@145 so sorry. Sometimes in moments of wrath I get a little carried away. (Still laughing…)
May 26th, 2012 at 6:07 pm
We’re just in full September form right now. The Bad News Braves are back.
May 26th, 2012 at 6:07 pm
NL East Power Rankings
1. Washington + Fredi Gonzalez
2. Braves
3. Mets + Fredi Gonzalez
4. Phillies + Fredi Gonzalez
5. Marlins + Fredi Gonzalez
May 26th, 2012 at 6:10 pm
It feels like we’re never going to win again.
May 26th, 2012 at 6:14 pm
They need to give Teheran a shot. If for no other reason, the team needs to feel something is being done.
And Wren needs to fire Fredi Gonzalez. I can’t for the life of me understand how the organization doesn’t see this. It is absolutely mind-numbing.
May 26th, 2012 at 6:20 pm
That’s the last straw.
May 26th, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Should we start calling for McDowell to be fired? This is really a joke. I can’t wait for it to be that Chipper has been out and that’s why we can’t win. We can’t win because outlet pitching staff is a joke right now and our manager is a saboteur. So glad I will be out of the loop on these guys for a week. Compete for gods sake
May 26th, 2012 at 6:48 pm
@ 155
The Braves pitching has been pretty successful during McDowell’s tenure. Firing him now would be a little too quick. We should be looking at the manager.
But this is the great thing about a MLB season that no other sport has. A MLB season has so many ups and downs. A week ago we couldn’t have imagined a 6 game losing streak.
May 26th, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Walker – it was actually kind of a joke. I know it didn’t come off that way. But this team, and any team really, has zero chance when their pitching is this bad. And with the injuries on offense…
It’s a train wreck right now
May 26th, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Gotta fix it and fast.
May 26th, 2012 at 11:50 pm
Fwiw, I think the Braves win tomorrow night. I bet both Mac and Freddie are back in the lineup and that Beachy pitches his arse off for 7 or 8 innings.
Not to mention that me and my 11 year old will be there and I can’t stand the thought of seeing one these recent travesties in person.
May 26th, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Speaking of which, no show tomorrow night. Moved to Monday night this week.
May 27th, 2012 at 1:36 am
Show #185: When does football start?
May 27th, 2012 at 9:00 am
Show #185 Olympic Preview
Show #185 Tour de France – What to Expect
Show #185 Steve’s Kid’s T-Ball Final
May 27th, 2012 at 10:37 am
Show #185: Braves Avoid September Collapse
May 27th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
What this team needs is a trade. I just don’t know if there is one to be made at this point in the season, especially with a second wild card up for grabs.
May 27th, 2012 at 12:46 pm
How about Chase Headley of the Padres (.247/.364/.404 this season and a .354 OBP for his career)? The last two seasons, he’s had an OPS+ of 120.
He doesn’t have a ton of power but he has some. It’s just not evident because he’s played in San Diego his whole career.
The Padres may want to trade him because he’s arb eligible but he’s locked up through 2014. The Braves could get their thirdbaseman, if they want to leave Prado in left.
May 27th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
One more Headley fact: .300/.364/.444 on the road in his career.
May 27th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Braves win tonight 8-3.
May 27th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
I’ve got ‘em losing 4-1.
May 27th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
“There’s nobody dragging themselves into this clubhouse,” said Gio Gonzalez, who starts on Sunday Night Baseball against the Braves’ Brandon Beachy, in a matchup of early Cy Young candidates. “Everybody’s excited. Everybody’s fired up. You don’t see guys yawning as they’re going out to take batting practice. They’re into it.”
On the other hand, there is a completely different environment in the Braves’ clubhouse these days: They are in survival mode.
-Buster Olney
May 27th, 2012 at 8:12 pm
“No I can’t,” Jones said when asked to point to the reason the team has struggled in his absence. “It’s frustrating to watch. Somebody has to step up. There are a 162 games to look forward to next year. Somebody has to step out. Somebody has to get the big out, get the big hit, make the big play – all those things that you have to do on a daily basis to win ball games.”
In other news – the earth is not flat
May 27th, 2012 at 10:10 pm
What’s our record against the NL East under Fredi Gonzalez? Shouldn’t that be something we start to look at and get concerned about. You know, with that whole unbalanced schedule thing…
May 27th, 2012 at 10:16 pm
The organization can’t afford to lose the fans this early. There are a lot of home games left.
May 27th, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Fredi really hung Livan out there for his former team. I’m sure Livan appreciates that.
May 27th, 2012 at 10:57 pm
What a difference a week makes. I dreaded a losing streak longer than 5 games.
May 27th, 2012 at 10:58 pm
We sure have a great manager.
May 27th, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Who do you trust on this team right now? Including the coaching staff? Fredi seems to lack the ability to turn the thing out of a tailspin. Embarrassing effort. I don’t care how short-handed you are. Think the Nats care? Think this doesn’t carry over this season? That the first time they faced us they best us like a mule?
By my count you are now 2-4 against the Mets, 1-2 against the Phils, 1-1 against the Marlins, and 0-3 against DC. With 346 games yet to play against them all. Good luck.
May 27th, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Livan has been good ( LUCKY) this year but HE IS STILL OUR MOP UP/LONG RELIEVER
NOTE TO FREDI: IT’S A TIE GAME IN THE FREAKING 6TH INNING!!
If it was the 7th, he would have put in O’Flaherty. But oh no it’s the 6th. We can’t use out best relievers. It’s against the law.
Rule #1 of sports: Win with your best and lose with your best.
Fredi, if you don’t secure a playoff spot, you are OUT OF HERE.
I’m not angry
May 27th, 2012 at 11:26 pm
We just got dominated.
Fredi has no clue. The only way we were winning is because our offense was on fire. Our pitching has been suspect all year, so when our offense slumps like they did this week we are going to lose a lot of gams. And again, we have a very bad manager.
May 27th, 2012 at 11:27 pm
*games not gams. I hate baseball.
May 28th, 2012 at 12:44 am
It was miserable at the ballpark tonight. And with each batter that Fredi left Livan in for, I became more and more speechless. So strange tonight. Awful.
May 28th, 2012 at 12:44 am
Feels like september
May 28th, 2012 at 2:19 am
I never blamed Fredi for the collapse. I now regret that.
May 28th, 2012 at 8:25 am
#180, he did that in Florida all the time. He just leaves guys in way too long. We’ve gotten lucky a lot this year that it hasn’t backfired more. I really think he’s gone after this year. No way he gets fired during the season unless we absolutely tank it, but even if we make the playoffs he’s gone, imo, unless we somehow win it all. He learned nothing from last season’s collapse and missing the playoffs. He’s making the same mistakes again, costing us games that we could at least stay in with better bullpen use and a better feel for when a starter is “done”. Wren and the rest of the organization have to see this, it’s so blatantly obvious.
It’s been just an awful month with the pitching issues, the offense going in the tank last week, Freeman’s eye issues, Chipper’s leg, McCann’s tummy. Bad stuff. Hopefully the team can just put this behind them and start tearing it up at the plate again.
May 28th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
I never blamed Fredi for the collapse but i blame him for us not making the playoffs. Over 162 games last year he cost us 3-4 extra wins easily.
May 28th, 2012 at 1:10 pm
The trouble with the “Wren and company have to see this” is that it’s the same company who hired Chad Durbin while Gearrin wastes away for a third year in Gwinnett with a 0.94 ERA and 0.837 WHIP, striking out 34 and walking 8 in 28 innings. I mean, who could have predicted that after the Spring he had?
May 28th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
That’s why they call him “1-2-3 Tommy”
May 28th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Hanson the magician.
May 28th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Philly also loaded the bases and scored zero. We were that close to punching our ticket for last place.
May 28th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
This is so much fun.
May 28th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Boy, when we fall, we fall hard. I can’t watch.
May 28th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Little leaguers…
May 28th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Yeah, whatcha want is Livan in a close game, save Medlen for the blowouts.
May 28th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
On…that little “Daddy came home and is at Turner Field” was freaking awesome.
May 28th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
I mean, the only way it could be worse is if Durbin came in and logged a couple of scoreless innings, solidifying him in Fredi’s dupedy eyes as a real choice in a real game.
May 28th, 2012 at 4:18 pm
…and this is why I didn’t get season tickets this year. What the.
May 28th, 2012 at 4:20 pm
A. Fire the Manager
B. Fire a Coach
C. Make a trade
D. Send guys down, call guys up
E. Stand pat, hope the team gets healthy and it all turns around
The Braves typically go with plan E in this situation, which sucks for those of us watching.
May 28th, 2012 at 4:25 pm
Dear Braves Players, at some point someone else has to step up and stop waiting for Chipper to fix it. Those days are gone. We drafted him in 1990. It’s 2012.
May 28th, 2012 at 4:27 pm
We’re in dead last.
May 28th, 2012 at 6:01 pm
Having not seen the score, I’ll assume we lost today
May 28th, 2012 at 6:33 pm
That old trick. Horrible starting pitching + no offense.
May 28th, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Luckily, I get to miss this week’s show. Not sure I had it in me.