May 13, 2018

Show #401: A Dominant Road Trip

We are amazing but who deserves the credit for our success? Bautista bad. Markakis great. Newcomb staff ace.



7 Responses to “Show #401: A Dominant Road Trip”

  1. 1
    Tyler Says:

    Bautista has been unlucky. Sub .200 BABIP despite having an above league average exit velocity. However, I never liked the idea of him defensively at third, although there was nowhere else to put him. I like him getting 2 or 3 starts a week until he gets 100 at bats. He’s a much better option than Camargo and Flaherty against lefties. All this is mute once Riley gets called up in a month or so. Had 3 homers including a grand slam today. 8 RBI.

  2. 2
    Steve Says:

    What makes you believe he’s a much better option against lefties than Camargo or Flaherty?

    I’ll give you Camargo who’s been struggling, but (small sample size alert), Flaherty is .250 .333 .250 against lefties. Not great, but Bautista can’t hit anything.

  3. 3
    Tyler Says:

    Those Flaherty #’s are not good. Neither are Bautista’s so I can’t argue against that. This is just a personal opinion, but given that the three options we have are sub par options, I’m willing to give the guy who’s actually been worth a damn a chance to prove he’s still got something. 25 at bats is not a big enough sample size to determine anything. All the advanced metrics are saying that he’s been incredibly unlucky; it’s the exact opposite with Flaherty. Bautista has only struck out one more time than he’s walked, so he’s seeing the ball well. Look, he should not be starting every game, but let’s give him more than 25 at bats. Even if he shouldn’t be starting, you can’t tell me that Culberson deserves a spot over Bautista.

  4. 4
    Tyler Says:

    Ivan posted this on talking chop: “So, just some data thoughts on this, because, well, data.

    Jose Bautista currently has a .307 xwOBA and a .267 wOBA. Neither of those are particularly good, though you can tell he’s been getting unlucky. His whiff rate is a reasonable 10.5 percent.

    About 10 percent of the pitches he’s seen have been 95 mph or greater. His xwOBA on those pitches is .500; his wOBA is .566. His whiff rate is below eight percent on those pitches.If you switch the threshold to 90 mph, his whiff rate does go back up to around 11 percent (small sample weirdness, for sure), and his xwOBA/wOBA are .275 and .309, respectively.

    To that end, I don’t think “catching up to the fastball” is Bautista’s issue. If I had to hazard a guess, I would put forth that aside from general rust/etc. issues, he’s basically cheating to be able to hit those hard fastballs, and getting screwed on everything that’s not quite so hard. It’s kind of why I think he’s toast, but I’d rather not have to hazard any guesses and just let some array of plate appearances with a decent dataset speak for itself.”

    He needs a longer look.

  5. 5
    Steve Says:

    Tyler – good stuff. I have trouble really believing it, but the numbers are compelling.

  6. 6
    Tyler Says:

    I honestly don’t think he last June. I would just like him to get a fair shake is all.

  7. 7
    Steve Says:

    And then he has the game changing hit this afternoon. Unbelievable.

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